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Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to  time series data leads to  conservative prediction regions. In fact,  to obtain prediction regions over $T$ time steps with confidence $1-\delta$, {previous works require that each individual prediction region is valid} with confidence $1-\delta/T$. We propose an optimization-based method for  reducing this conservatism to enable long horizon planning and verification when using learning-enabled time series predictors. Instead of considering prediction errors individually at each time step, we consider a parameterized prediction error over multiple time steps. By optimizing the parameters over an additional dataset, we find  prediction regions that are not conservative. We show that this problem can be cast as a mixed integer linear complementarity program (MILCP), which we then relax into a linear complementarity program (LCP). Additionally, we prove that the relaxed LP has the same optimal cost as the original MILCP. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our method on case studies using pedestrian trajectory predictors and F16 fighter jet altitude predictors.

AAAI 2024

Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series Using Linear Complementarity Programming

safe ai

uncertainty quantification

optimization

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-26 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

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AAAI 2026

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

technical paper

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24), which will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Vancouver Convention Centre – West Building from 20-27 February, 2024.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

We expect for AAAI-24 to be an in-person conference – one author of all accepted papers will be expected to present work in person unless there are exceptional circumstances that prevent this.

In order to access the AAAI-24 event page you need to register [here](https://aaai.org/aaai-conference/registration/)

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

Multi-label classification poses challenges due to imbalanced and noisy labels in training data. In this paper, we propose a unified data augmentation method, named BalanceMix, to address these challenges. Our approach includes two samplers for imbalanced labels, generating minority-augmented instances with high diversity. It also refines multi-labels at the label-wise granularity, categorizing noisy labels as clean, re-labeled, or ambiguous for robust optimization. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that BalanceMix outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. We release the code at https://github.com/DISL-Lab/BalanceMix.

Toward Robustness in Multi-Label Classification: A Data Augmentation Strategy against Imbalance and Noise | VIDEO

To trace the copyright of deep neural networks, an owner can embed its identity information into its model as a watermark.
The capacity of the watermark quantify the maximal volume of information that can be verified from the watermarked model.
Current studies on capacity focus on the ownership verification accuracy under ordinary removal attacks and fail to capture the relationship between robustness and fidelity.
This paper studies the capacity of deep neural network watermarks from an information theoretical perspective.
We propose a new definition of deep neural network watermark capacity analogous to channel capacity, analyze its properties, and design an algorithm that yields a tight estimation of its upper bound under adversarial overwriting.
We also propose a universal non-invasive method to secure the transmission of the identity message beyond capacity by multiple rounds of ownership verification. 
Our observations provide evidence for neural network owners and defenders that are curious about the tradeoff between the integrity of their ownership and the performance degradation of their products.

Revisiting the Information Capacity of Neural Network Watermarks: Upper Bound Estimation and Beyond

As algorithmic decision-making systems become more prevalent in society, ensuring the fairness of these systems is becoming increasingly important. Whilst there has been substantial research in building fair algorithmic decision-making systems, the majority of these methods require access to the training data, including personal characteristics, and are not transparent regarding which individuals are classified unfairly. In this paper, we propose a novel model-agnostic argumentation-based method to determine why an individual is classified differently in comparison to similar individuals. Our method uses a quantitative argumentation framework to represent attribute-value pairs of an individual and of those similar to them, and uses a well-known semantics to identify the attribute-value pairs in the individual contributing most to their different classification. We evaluate our method on two datasets commonly used in the fairness literature and illustrate its effectiveness in the identification of bias.

Identifying Reasons for Bias: An Argumentation-Based Approach

Decision trees are among the most popular supervised models due to their interpretability and knowledge representation resembling human reasoning. Commonly-used decision tree induction algorithms are based on greedy top-down strategies. Although these approaches are known to be an efficient heuristic, the resulting trees are only locally optimal and tend to have overly complex structures. On the other hand, optimal decision tree algorithms attempt to create an entire decision tree at once to achieve global optimality. We place our proposal between these approaches by designing a generative model for decision trees. Our method first learns a latent decision tree space through a variational architecture using pre-trained decision tree models. Then, it adopts a genetic procedure to explore such latent space to find a compact decision tree with good predictive performance. We compare our proposal against classical tree induction methods, optimal approaches, and ensemble models. The results show that our proposal can generate accurate and shallow, i.e., interpretable, decision trees.

Generative Model for Decision Trees | VIDEO

Prototypical parts-based networks are becoming increasingly popular due to their faithful self-explanations. However, their similarity maps are calculated in the penultimate network layer. Therefore, the receptive field of the prototype activation region often depends on parts of the image outside this region, which can lead to misleading interpretations. We name this undesired behavior a spatial explanation misalignment and introduce an interpretability benchmark with a set of dedicated metrics for quantifying this phenomenon. In addition, we propose a method for misalignment compensation and apply it to existing state-of-the-art models. We show the expressiveness of our benchmark and the effectiveness of the proposed compensation methodology through extensive empirical studies.

Interpretability Benchmark for Evaluating Spatial Misalignment of Prototypical Parts Explanations

Avoiding synthesizing specific visual concepts is an essential challenge in responsible visual synthesis. However, the visual concept that needs to be avoided for responsible visual synthesis tends to be diverse, depending on the region, context, and usage scenarios. In this work, we formalize a new task, Open-vocabulary Responsible Visual Synthesis (ORES), where the synthesis model is able to avoid forbidden visual concepts while allowing users to input any desired content. To address this problem, we present a Two-stage Intervention (TIN) framework. By introducing 1) rewriting with learnable instruction through a large-scale language model (LLM) and 2) synthesizing with prompt intervention on a diffusion synthesis model, it can effectively synthesize images avoiding any concepts but following the user's query as much as possible. To evaluate on ORES, we provide a publicly available dataset, baseline models, and benchmark. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in reducing risks of image generation. Our work highlights the potential of LLMs in responsible visual synthesis. Our code and dataset is public available in https://github.com/kodenii/ORES.

ORES: Open-Vocabulary Responsible Visual Synthesis

Autonomous driving systems rely on precise trajectory prediction for safe and efficient motion planning. Despite considerable efforts to enhance prediction accuracy, inherent uncertainties persist due to data noise and incomplete observations. Many strategies entail formalizing prediction outcomes into distributions and utilizing variance to represent uncertainty. However, our experimental investigation reveals that existing trajectory prediction models yield unreliable uncertainty estimates, necessitating additional customized calibration processes. On the other hand, directly applying current calibration techniques to prediction outputs may yield sub-optimal results due to using a universal scaler for all predictions and neglecting informative data cues. In this paper, we propose Customized Calibration Temperature with Regularizer (CCTR), a generic framework that calibrates the output distribution. Specifically, CCTR 1) employs a calibration-based regularizer to align output variance with the discrepancy between prediction and ground truth and 2) generates a tailor-made temperature scaler for each prediction using a post-processing network guided by context and historical information. Extensive evaluation involving multiple prediction and planning methods demonstrates the superiority of CCTR over existing calibration algorithms and uncertainty-aware methods, with significant improvements of 11%-22% in calibration quality and 17%-46% in motion planning.

CCTR: Calibrating Trajectory Prediction for Uncertainty-Aware Motion Planning in Autonomous Driving

Visual Question Answering (VQA) based on multi-modal data facilitates real-life applications such as home robots and medical diagnoses. One significant challenge is to devise a robust decentralized learning framework for various client models where centralized data collection is refrained due to confidentiality concerns. This work aims to tackle privacy-preserving VQA by decoupling a multi-modal model into representation modules and a contrastive module, leveraging inter-module gradients sharing and inter-client weight sharing. To this end, we propose Bidirectional Contrastive Split Learning (BiCSL) to train a global multi-modal model on the entire data distribution of decentralized clients. We employ the contrastive loss that enables a more efficient self-supervised learning of decentralized modules. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on the VQA-v2 dataset based on five SOTA VQA models, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, we inspect BiCSL's robustness against a dual-key backdoor attack on VQA. Consequently, BiCSL shows significantly enhanced resilience when exposed to the multi-modal adversarial attack compared to the centralized learning method, which provides a promising approach to decentralized multi-modal learning.

Bidirectional Contrastive Split Learning for Visual Question Answering

Federated Learning (FL) is a distributed learning paradigm that enhances users' privacy by eliminating the need for clients to share raw, private data with the server.
Despite the success, recent studies expose the vulnerability of FL to model inversion attacks, where adversaries reconstruct users’ private data via eavesdropping on the shared gradient information. We hypothesize that a key factor in the success of such attacks is the low entanglement among gradients per data within the batch during stochastic optimization. This creates a vulnerability that an adversary can exploit to reconstruct the sensitive data. Building upon this insight, we present a simple, yet effective defense strategy that obfuscates the gradients of the sensitive data with concealed samples. To achieve this, we propose synthesizing concealed samples to mimic the sensitive data at the gradient level while ensuring their visual dissimilarity from the actual sensitive data. Compared to the previous art, our empirical evaluations suggest that the proposed technique provides the strongest protection while simultaneously maintaining the FL performance. Code is located at https://github.com/JingWu321/DCS-2.

Concealing Sensitive Samples against Gradient Leakage in Federated Learning | VIDEO

Recent advancements in diffusion models have significantly impacted the trajectory of generative machine learning re-search, with many adopting the strategy of fine-tuning pre-trained models using domain-specific text-to-image datasets. Notably, this method has been readily employed for medical applications, such as X-ray image synthesis, leveraging the plethora of associated radiology reports. Yet, a prevailing concern is the lack of assurance on whether these models genuinely comprehend their generated content. With the evolution of text conditional image generation, these models have grown potent enough to facilitate object localization scrutiny. Our research underscores this advancement in the critical realm of medical imaging, emphasizing the crucial role of interpretability. We further unravel a consequential trade-off between image fidelity – as gauged by conventional metrics – and model interpretability in generative diffusion models. Specifically, the adoption of learnable text encoders when fine-tuning results in diminished interpretability. Our in-depth exploration uncovers the underlying factors responsible for this divergence. Consequently, we present a set of design principles for the development of truly interpretable generative models. Code is available at https://github.com/MischaD/chest-distillation.

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