Canada

Predicting future outcomes is a prevalent application of machine learning in social impact domains. Examples range from predicting student success in education to predicting disease risk in healthcare. Practitioners often recognize that the ultimate goal is not just to predict but to act effectively, and increasing empirical evidence suggests that relying on outcome predictions for downstream interventions may not lead to desired results.
In most domains there exists a multitude of possible interventions for each individual, making the challenge of taking effective action more acute. Even when causal mechanism connecting the individual’s latent states to outcomes is well understood, in any given instance (a specific student, or patient), practitioners still need to infer—from budgeted measurements of latent states—which of many possible interventions will be most effective for this individual. With this in mind, we ask: when are accurate predictors of outcomes helpful for identifying the most suitable intervention?
Through a simple model encompassing actions, latent states, and measurements, we demonstrate that pure outcome prediction rarely results in the most effective policy for taking actions, even when combined with other measurements. We find that except in cases where there is a single decisive action for improving the outcome, outcome prediction never maximizes “action value”, the utility of taking actions. Making measurements of actionable latent states, where specific actions lead to desired outcomes, considerably enhances the action value compared to outcome prediction, and the degree of improvement depends on action costs and the outcome model. This analysis emphasizes the need to go beyond generic outcome prediction in interventional settings by incorporating knowledge of plausible actions and latent states.

AAAI 2024

On the Actionability of Outcome Prediction

fairness and equality

aisi: social welfare

ml: other foundations of machine learning

justice

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-26 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

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AAAI 2026

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

technical paper

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24), which will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Vancouver Convention Centre – West Building from 20-27 February, 2024.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

We expect for AAAI-24 to be an in-person conference – one author of all accepted papers will be expected to present work in person unless there are exceptional circumstances that prevent this.

In order to access the AAAI-24 event page you need to register [here](https://aaai.org/aaai-conference/registration/)

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

Small farms contribute to a large share of the productive land in developing countries. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where 80% of farms are small (under 2 ha in size), the task of mapping smallholder cropland is an important part of tracking sustainability measures such as crop productivity. However, the visually diverse and nuanced appearance of small farms has limited the effectiveness of traditional approaches to cropland mapping. Here we introduce a new approach based on the detection of harvest piles characteristic of many smallholder systems throughout the world. We present HarvestNet, a dataset for mapping the presence of farms in the Ethiopian regions of Tigray and Amhara during 2020-2023, collected using expert knowledge and satellite images, totaling 7k hand-labeled images and 2k ground-collected labels. We also benchmark a set of baselines including SOTA models in remote sensing with our best models having around 80\% classification performance on hand labelled data and 90%, 98% accuracy on ground truth data for Tigray, Amhara respectively. We also perform a visual comparison with a widely used pre-existing coverage map and show that our model detects an extra 56,621 hectares of cropland in Tigray. We conclude that remote sensing of harvest piles can contribute to more timely and accurate cropland assessments in food insecure regions.

HarvestNet: A Dataset for Detecting Smallholder Farming Activity Using Harvest Piles and Remote Sensing | VIDEO

Accounting for over 20% of the total carbon emissions, the precise estimation of on-road transportation carbon emissions is crucial for carbon emission monitoring and efficient mitigation policy formulation. However, existing estimation methods typically depend on hard-to-collect individual statistics of vehicle miles traveled to calculate emissions, thereby suffering from high data collection difficulty. With the aim to relieve this issue by utilizing the strong pattern recognition of artificial intelligence, we incorporate two sources of open data representative of the transportation demand and capacity factors, the origin-destination (OD) flow data and the road network data, to build a Hierarchical hEterogeneous graph learning method for oN-road Carbon Emission estimation (HENCE). Specifically, a hierarchical graph consisting of the road network level, community level, and region level is constructed to model the multi-scale road network-based connectivity and travel connection between spatial areas. Heterogeneous graphs consisting of OD links and spatial links are further built at both the community level and region level to capture the intrinsic interactions between travel demand and road network accessibility. Extensive experiments on two large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate HENCE's effectiveness and superiority with R2 exceeding 0.75 and outperforming baselines by 9.60% on average, validating its success in pioneering the use of artificial intelligence to empower carbon emission management and sustainability development.

Estimating On-Road Transportation Carbon Emissions from Open Data of Road Network and Origin-Destination Flow Data

Next Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation models have been demonstrated as powerful in using sparse, complex spatial-temporal trajectory data to recommend the following POI to users. Existing methods commonly alleviate the problem of data sparsity by incorporating spatial-temporal context information, POI category features, and social relationships. However, such a scheme overlooks the fact that the trajectory sequences collected in the dataset are often incomplete, thereby limiting the model's ability to fully benefit from historical context. Against this background, we propose Trajectory  Data Augmentation with Uncertainty (TAU) for Next POI Recommendation, a typical graph-based trajectory data augmentation model calibrates user mobility patterns by marrying uncertainty estimation to the next POI recommendation task. Specifically, TAU incorporates the global transition patterns graph to uncover sets of intermediate nodes that exist between any two locations, effectively using edge weights as transition probabilities. While constructing trajectory sequences, it randomly selects intermediate nodes based on their likelihood of occurrence as pseudo-labels, inserting them into the trajectory sequences to form complete trajectory sequences. Furthermore, to gauge the impact of pseudo-labels on target location certainty, we introduce a novel model calibration method using evidence depth learning (EDL) for improved performance. The experimental results clearly indicate that our TAU method achieves consistent performance improvements over other existing techniques on two real-world datasets, solidifying its position as the state-of-the-art approach for the task.

TAU: Trajectory Data Augmentation with Uncertainty for Next POI Recommendation

Line Probe Assay (LPA) is a widely used method for diagnosing drug-resistant tuberculosis (DRTB), but it is a time-consuming and labor-intensive process that requires expert interpretation. DRTB is a significant threat to global TB control efforts and its prompt diagnosis is critical for initiating appropriate treatment. In this paper, we present an automated LPA test interpretation solution that uses computer vision techniques to extract and analyze strips from LPA sheets and uses machine learning algorithms to produce drug sensitivity and resistivity outcomes with extremely high precision and recall. We also develop OCR models to eliminate manual data entry to further reduce the overall time. Our solution comprises a rejection module that flags ambiguous and novel samples that are then referred to experienced lab technicians. This results in increased trust in the solution. To evaluate our solution, we curate an extensive and diverse dataset of LPA strips annotated by multiple microbiologists across India. Our solution achieves more than 95% accuracy for all drugs on this dataset. The proposed solution has the potential to increase the efficiency, standardization of LPA test interpretation, and fast-tracking the dissemination of results to end-users via a designated Management Information System (MIS).

Automatic Interpretation of Line Probe Assay Test for Tuberculosis

Accurate crop type maps are an essential source of information for monitoring yield progress at scale, projecting global crop production, and planning effective policies. To date, however, crop type maps remain challenging to create in low- and middle-income countries due to a lack of ground truth labels for training machine learning models. Field surveys are the gold standard in terms of accuracy but require an often-prohibitively large amount of time, money, and statistical capacity. 
In recent years, street-level imagery, such as Google Street View, KartaView, and Mapillary, has become available around the world. Such imagery contains rich information about crop types grown at particular locations and times. 
In this work, we develop an automated system to generate crop type ground references using deep learning and Google Street View imagery. The method efficiently curates a set of street-view images containing crop fields, trains a model to predict crop types using either weakly-labeled images from disparate out-of-domain sources or zero-shot labeled street view images with GPT-4V, and combines the predicted labels with remote sensing time series to create a wall-to-wall crop type map. We show that, in Thailand, the resulting country-wide map of rice, cassava, maize, and sugarcane achieves an accuracy of 93%. As the availability of roadside imagery expands, our pipeline provides a way to map crop types at scale around the globe, especially in underserved smallholder regions.

Combining Deep Learning and Street View Imagery to Map Smallholder Crop Types

Environmental conservation organizations routinely monitor news content on conservation in protected areas to maintain situational awareness of developments that can have an environmental impact. Existing automated media monitoring systems require large amounts of data labeled by domain experts, which is only feasible at scale for high-resource languages like English. However, such tools are most needed in the global south where the news of interest is mainly in local low-resource languages, and far fewer experts are available to annotate datasets on a sustainable basis. In this paper, we propose NewsSerow, a method to automatically recognize environmental conservation content in low-resource languages. NewsSerow is a pipeline of summarization, in-context few-shot classification, and self-reflection using large language models (LLMs). Using at most 10 demonstration example news articles in Nepali, NewsSerow significantly outperforms other few-shot methods and can achieve comparable performance with models fully fine-tuned using thousands of examples. With NewsSerow, Organization X has been able to deploy the media monitoring tool in Nepal, significantly reducing their operational burden, and ensuring that AI tools for conservation actually reach the communities that need them the most. NewsSerow has also been deployed for countries with other languages like Colombia.

Where It Really Matters: Few-Shot Environmental Conservation Media Monitoring for Low-Resource Languages

Flood mapping on Earth imagery is crucial for disaster management, but its efficacy is hampered by the lack of high-quality training labels. Given high-resolution Earth imagery with coarse and noisy training labels, a base deep neural network model, and a spatial knowledge base with label constraints, our problem is to infer the true high-resolution labels while training neural network parameters. Traditional methods are largely based on specific physical properties and thus fall short of capturing the rich domain constraints expressed by symbolic logic. Neural-symbolic models can capture rich domain knowledge, but existing methods do not address the unique spatial challenges inherent in flood mapping on high-resolution imagery. To fill this gap, we propose a spatial-logic-aware weakly supervised learning framework. Our framework integrates symbolic spatial logic inference into probabilistic learning in a weakly supervised setting. To reduce the time costs of logic inference on vast high-resolution pixels, we propose a multi-resolution spatial reasoning algorithm to infer true labels while training neural network parameters. Evaluations of real-world flood datasets show that our model outperforms several baselines in prediction accuracy. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/spatialdatasciencegroup/SLWSL}.

Spatial-Logic-Aware Weakly Supervised Learning for Flood Mapping on Earth Imagery

Sustainability challenges inherently involve the consideration of multiple competing objectives. The Pareto frontier – the set of all optimal solutions that cannot be improved with respect to one objective without negatively affecting another – is a crucial decision-making tool for navigating sustainability challenges as it highlights the inherent trade-offs among conflicting objectives. Our research is motivated by the strategic planning of hydropower in the Amazon basin, one of the earth’s largest and most biodiverse river systems, where the need to increase energy production coincides with the pressing requirement of minimizing detrimental environmental impacts. We investigate an innovative strategy that pairs hydropower with Floating Photovoltaic Solar Panels (FPV). We provide a new extended multi-tree network formulation, which enables the consideration of multiple dam configurations.  To address the computational challenge of scaling up the Pareto optimization framework to tackle multiple objectives across the entire Amazon basin, we further enhance the state-of-the-art algorithm for Pareto frontiers in tree-structured networks with two improvements. We introduce affine transformations induced by the sub-frontiers to compute Pareto dominance and provide strategies for merging sub-trees,  significantly increasing the pruning of dominated solutions. Our experiments demonstrate considerable speedups, in some cases by more than an order of magnitude, while maintaining optimality guarantees, thus allowing us to more effectively approximate the Pareto frontiers. Moreover, our findings suggest significant shifts towards higher energy values in the Pareto frontier when pairing hybrid hydropower with FPV solutions, potentially amplifying energy production while mitigating adverse impacts.

Scaling Up Pareto Optimization for Tree Structures with Affine Transformations: Evaluating Hybrid Floating Solar-Hydropower Systems in the Amazon

Vision Transformers (ViTs) represent self-attention-based network backbones shown to be efficient in many individual tasks, but which have not been explored in Task-Free Continual Learning (TFCL) so far. Most existing ViT-based approaches for Continual Learning (CL) are relying on task information. In this study, we explore the advantages of the ViT in a more challenging CL scenario where the task boundaries are unavailable during training. To address this learning paradigm, we propose the Task-Free Dynamic Sparse Vision Transformer (TFDSViT), which can dynamically build new sparse experts, where each expert leverages sparsity to allocate the model's capacity for capturing different information categories over time. To avoid forgetting and ensure efficiency in reusing the previously learned knowledge in subsequent learning, we propose a new dynamic dual attention mechanism consisting of the Sparse Attention (SA') and Knowledge Transfer Attention (KTA) modules. The SA' refrains from updating some previously learned attention blocks for preserving prior knowledge. The KTA uses and regulates the information flow of all previously learned experts for learning new patterns. The proposed dual attention mechanism can simultaneously relieve forgetting and promote knowledge transfer for a dynamic expansion model in a task-free manner. We also propose an energy-based dynamic expansion mechanism using the energy as a measure of novelty for the incoming samples which provides appropriate expansion signals leading to a compact network architecture for TFDSViT. Extensive empirical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of TFDSViT. The code and supplementary material (SM) are available at https://github.com/dtuzi123/TFDSViT.

Task-Free Dynamic Sparse Vision Transformer for Continual Learning

The last years have seen astonishing progress in the capabilities of generative AI techniques, particularly in the areas of language and visual understanding. Key to the success of these models is the availability of very large sets of images and text along with models that are able to digest such large datasets. Unfortunately, we have not been able to replicate this success in the context of robotics, where robots still struggle to perform seemingly simple tasks such as manipulating objects in the real world. A crucial reason for this problem is the lack of data suitable to train powerful, general models for robot decision making and control. In this talk, I will describe our ongoing efforts toward developing the models and generating the kind of data that might enable us to train foundational robot manipulation skills. To generate large amounts of demonstration data, we sample many object rearrangement tasks in physically realistic simulation environments, generate high quality solutions for them, and then train perception-driven manipulation skills that can be used in unknown, real-world environments. We believe that such skills along with generative AI reasoning can provide robots with the capabilities necessary to succeed across a wide range of applications.

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HarvestNet: A Dataset for Detecting Smallholder Farming Activity Using Harvest Piles and Remote Sensing | VIDEO

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