United States

A significant challenge in credit risk models for underwriting is the presence of bias in model training data. When most credit risk models are built using only applicants who had been funded for credit, such non-random sampling predominantly influenced by credit policymakers and previous loan performances may introduce sampling bias to the models, and thus alter their prediction of default on loan repayment when screening applications from prospective borrowers. In this paper, we propose a novel data augmentation method that aims to identify and pseudo-label parts of the historically declined loan applications to mitigate sampling bias in the training data. We also introduce a new measure to assess the performance from the business perspective, loan application approval rates at various loan default rate levels. Our proposed methods were compared to the original supervised learning model and the traditional sampling issue remedy techniques in the industry. The experiment and early production results from deployed model show that self-training method with calibrated probability as data augmentation selection criteria improved the ability of credit scoring to differentiate default loan applications and, more importantly, can increase loan approval rate up to 8.8\%,  while keeping similar default rate comparing to baselines. The results demonstrate practical implications on how future underwriting model development processes should follow.

AAAI 2022

Combating Sampling Bias: A Self-Training Method in Credit Risk Models

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24), which will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Vancouver Convention Centre – West Building from 20-27 February, 2024.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

We expect for AAAI-24 to be an in-person conference – one author of all accepted papers will be expected to present work in person unless there are exceptional circumstances that prevent this.<br><br><br><br>

In order to access the AAAI-24 event page you need to register [here](https://aaai.org/aaai-conference/registration/)

AAAI 2024

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

The CO2 capture efficiency in solvent-based carbon capture systems (CCSs) critically depends on the gas-solvent interfacial area (IA), making maximization of IA a foundational challenge in CCS design. While the IA associated with a particular CCS design can be estimated via a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation, using CFD to derive the IAs associated with numerous CCS designs is prohibitively costly. Fortunately, previous works such as Deep Fluids (DF) (Kim et al., 2019) show that large simulation speedups are achievable by replacing CFD simulators with neural network (NN) surrogates that faithfully mimic the CFD simulation process. This raises the possibility of a fast, accurate replacement for a CFD simulator and therefore efficient approximation of the IAs required by CCS design optimization. Thus, here, we build on the DF approach to develop surrogates that can successfully be applied to our complex carbon-capture CFD simulations. Our optimized DF-style surrogates produce large speedups (4000x) while obtaining IA relative errors as low as 4% on unseen CCS configurations that lie within the range of training configurations. This hints at the promise of NN surrogates for our CCS design optimization problem. Nonetheless, DF has inherent limitations with respect to CCS design (e.g., limited transferability of trained models to new CCS packings). We conclude with ideas to address these challenges.

Latent Space Simulation for Carbon Capture Design Optimization

Finding or tracking the location of an object accurately is a crucial problem in defense applications, robotics and computer vision. Radars fall into the spectrum of high-end defense sensors or systems upon which the security and surveillance of the entire world depends. There has been a lot of focus on the topic of Multi Sensor Tracking in recent years, with radars as the sensors. The Indian Air Force uses a Multi Sensor Tracking (MST) system to detect flights pan India, developed and supported by BEL(Bharat Electronics Limited), a defense agency we are working with. In this paper, we describe our Machine Learning approach, which is built on top of the existing system, the Air force uses. For purposes of this work, we trained our models on about 13 million anonymized real Multi Sensor tracking data points provided by radars performing tracking activity across the Indian air space. The approach has shown an increase in the accuracy of tracking by 5 percent from 91 to 96. The model and the corresponding code were transitioned to BEL, which has been tested in their simulation environment with a plan to take forward for ground testing. Our approach comprises of 3 steps: (a) We train a Neural Network model and a CatBoost model and ensemble them using a Logistic Regression model to predict one type of error, namely Splitting error, which can help to improve the accuracy of tracking. (b) We again train a Neural Network model and a CatBoost model and ensemble them using a different Logistic Regression model to predict the second type of error, namely Merging error, which can further improve the accuracy of tracking. (c) We use cosine similarity to find the nearest neighbour and correct the data points, predicted to have Splitting/Merging errors, by predicting the original global track of these data points.

CB+NN Ensemble to Improve Tracking Accuracy in Air Surveillance

Implementations of artificial intelligence (AI) based on deep learning (DL) have proven to be highly successful in many domains, from biomedical imaging to natural language processing, but are still rarely applied in the space industry, particularly for onboard learning of planetary surfaces. In this project, we discuss the utility and limitations of DL, enhanced with topological footprints of the sensed objects, for multi-class classification of planetary surface patterns, in conjunction with tactile and embedded sensing in rover exploratory missions. We consider a Topological Convolutional Network (TCN) model with a persistence-based attention mechanism for supervised classification of various landforms. We study TCN's performance on the Barefoot surface pattern dataset, a novel surface pressure dataset from a prototype tactile rover wheel, known as the Barefoot Rover tactile wheel. Multi-class pattern recognition in the Barefoot data has neither been ever tackled before with DL nor assessed with topological methods. We provide insights into advantages and restrictions of topological DL as the early-stage concept for onboard learning and planetary exploration.

TCN: Pioneering Topological-Based Convolutional Networks for Planetary Terrain Learning

Digitization of newspapers is of interest for many reasons including preservation of history, accessibility and search ability, etc. While digitization of documents such as scientific articles and magazines is prevalent in literature, one of the main challenges for digitization of newspaper lies in its complex layout (e.g. articles spanning multiple columns, text interrupted by images) analysis, which is necessary to preserve human read-order. This work provides a major breakthrough in the digitization of newspapers on three fronts: first, releasing a dataset of 3000 fully-annotated, real-world newspaper images from 21 different U.S. states representing an extensive variety of complex layouts for document layout analysis; second, proposing layout segmentation as a precursor to existing optical character recognition (OCR) engines, where multiple state-of-the-art image segmentation models and several post-processing methods are explored for document layout segmentation; third, providing a thorough and structured evaluation protocol for isolated layout segmentation and end-to-end OCR.

DocBed: A Multi-Stage OCR Solution for Documents with Complex Layouts

More than US$ 27 billion is estimated to have been paid-out in farm support in USA alone since 1991 in response to climate change impacts on agriculture, with costs likely continuing to rise. With the wider adoption of precision agriculture - an agriculture management strategy that involves gathering, processing and analyzing temporal, spatial and individual data - in both developed and developing countries, there is an increasing opportunity to harness accumulating, shareable, big data using artificial intelligence (AI) methods, collected from weather stations, field sensor networks, Internet-of-Things devices, unmanned aerial vehicles, and earth observational satellites. This requires smart algorithms tailored to agricultural data types, integrated into digital solutions that are viable, flexible, and scalable for wide deployment for a wide variety of agricultural users and decision-makers. We discuss a novel AI approach that addresses the real-world problem of developing a viable solution for reliably, timely, and cost-effectively forecasting crop status across large agricultural regions using Earth observational information in near-real-time. Our approach is based on extracting time-conditioned topological features which characterize complex spatio-temporal dependencies between crop production regions and integrating such topological signatures into Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). We discuss utility and limitations of the resulting zigzag persistence-based LSTM (ZZTop-LSTM) as a new tool for developing more informed crop insurance rate-making and accurate tracking of changing risk exposures and vulnerabilities within insurance risk areas.

Learning Space-Time Crop Yield Patterns with Zigzag Persistence-Based LSTM: Toward More Reliable Digital Agriculture Insurance

Formal response organizations perform rapid damage assessments after natural and human-induced disasters to measure the extent of damage to infrastructures such as roads, bridges, and buildings. This time-critical task, when performed using traditional approaches such as experts surveying the disaster areas, poses serious challenges and delays response. This paper presents an AI-based system that leverages citizen science to collect damage images reported on social media and perform rapid damage assessment in real-time. Several image processing models in the system tackle non-trivial challenges posed by social media as a data source, such as high-volume of redundant and irrelevant content. The system determines the severity of damage using a state-of-the-art computer vision model. Together with a response organization in the US, we deployed the system to identify damage reports during a major real-world disaster. We observe that almost 42% of the images are unique, 28% relevant, and more importantly, only 10% of them contain either mild or severe damage. Experts from our partner organization provided feedback on the system's mistakes, which we used to perform additional experiments to retrain the models. Consequently, the retrained models based on expert feedback on the target domain data helped us achieve significant performance improvements.

AI for Disaster Rapid Damage Assessment from Microblogs

In this paper, we address a crucial problem in fashion e-commerce (with respect to customer experience, as well as revenue): color variants identification, i.e., identifying fashion products that match exactly in their design (or style), but only to differ in their color. We propose a generic framework, that leverages deep visual Representation Learning at its heart, to address this problem for our fashion e-commerce platform. Our framework could be trained with supervisory signals in the form of triplets, that are obtained manually. However, it is infeasible to obtain manual annotations for the entire huge collection of data usually present in fashion e-commerce platforms, such as ours, while capturing all the difficult corner cases. But, to our rescue, interestingly we observed that this crucial problem in fashion e-commerce could also be solved by simple color jitter based image augmentation, that recently became widely popular in the contrastive Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) literature, that seeks to learn visual representations without using manual labels. This naturally led to a question in our mind: Could we leverage SSL in our use-case, and still obtain comparable performance to our supervised framework? The answer is, Yes! because, color variant fashion objects are nothing but manifestations of a style, in different colors, and a model trained to be invariant to the color (with, or without supervision), should be able to recognize this! This is what the paper further demonstrates, both qualitatively, and quantitatively, while evaluating a couple of state-of-the-art SSL techniques, and also proposing a novel method.

A Tale of Color Variants: Representation and Self-Supervised Learning in Fashion E-commerce

The deployment of vaccines across the US provides significant defense against serious illness and death from COVID-19.  Over 70% of vaccine-eligible Americans are at least partially vaccinated, but there are pockets of the population that are under-vaccinated, such as in rural areas and some demographic groups (e.g. age, race, ethnicity). These pockets are extremely susceptible to the Delta variant, exacerbating the healthcare crisis and increasing the risk of new variants. In this paper, we describe a data-driven model that provides real-time support to Virginia public health officials by recommending mobile vaccination site placement in order to target under-vaccinated populations.  Our strategy uses fine-grained mobility data, along with US Census and vaccination uptake data, to identify locations that are most likely to be visited by unvaccinated individuals. We further extend our model to choose locations that maximize vaccine uptake among hesitant groups. We show that the top recommended sites vary substantially across some demographics, demonstrating the value of developing customized recommendation models that integrate fine-grained, heterogeneous data sources. We also validate our recommendations by analyzing the success rates of deployed vaccine sites, and show that sites placed closer to our recommended areas administered higher numbers of doses. Our model is the first of its kind to consider evolving mobility patterns in real-time for suggesting placement strategies customized for different targeted demographic groups.

Data-Driven Real-Time Strategic Placement of Mobile Vaccine Distribution Sites

In 2020, the White House released the â€œCall to Action to the Tech Community on New Machine Readable COVID-19 Dataset,â€ wherein artificial intelligence experts are asked to collect data and develop text mining techniques that can help the science community answer high-priority scientific questions related to COVID-19. The Allen Institute for AI and collaborators announced the availability of a rapidly growing open dataset of publications, the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19). As the pace of research accelerates, biomedical scientists struggle to stay current. To expedite their investigations, scientists leverage hypothesis generation systems, which can automatically inspect published papers to discover novel implicit connections. We present automated general purpose hypothesis generation systems AGATHA-C and AGATHA-GP for COVID-19 research. The systems are based on the graph mining and transformer models. The systems are massively validated using retrospective information rediscovery and proactive analysis involving human-in-the-loop expert analysis. Both systems achieve high-quality predictions across domains in fast computational time and are released to the broad scientific community to accelerate biomedical research. In addition, by performing the domain expert curated study, we show that the systems are able to discover ongoing research findings such as the relationship between COVID-19 and oxytocin hormone.
All code, details, and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/IlyaTyagin/AGATHA-C-GP.

Accelerating COVID-19 Research with Graph Mining and Transformer-Based Learning

As artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms become  increasingly  prevalent  in  society,  multiple  stakeholders are calling for these algorithms to provide explanations. At  the  same  time,  these  stakeholders,  whether  they  be  affected  citizens,  government  regulators,  domain  experts,  or system developers, have different explanation needs. To address these needs, in 2019, we created AI Explainability 360, an open source software toolkit featuring ten  diverse  and  state-of-the-art  explainability  methods  and two  evaluation  metrics.  This  paper  examines  the  impact  of the toolkit with several case studies, statistics, and community feedback. The different ways in which users have experienced AI Explainability 360 have resulted in multiple types of impact and improvements in multiple metrics, highlighted by the adoption of the toolkit by the independent LF AI & Data Foundation. The paper also describes the flexible design of the toolkit, examples of its use, and the significant educational material and documentation available to its users.

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