United States

Electricity forecasting has important implications for the key decisions in modern electricity systems, ranging from power generation, transmission, distribution and so on. In the literature, traditional statistic approaches, machine-learning methods and deep learning (e.g., recurrent neural network) based models are utilized to model the trends and patterns in electricity time-series data. However, they are restricted either by their deterministic forms or by independence in probabilistic assumptions -- thereby neglecting the uncertainty or significant correlations between distributions of electricity data. Ignoring these, in turn, may yield error accumulation, especially when relying on historical data and aiming at multi-step prediction. To overcome these, we propose a novel method named Probabilistic Electricity Forecasting (PrEF) by proposing a non-linear neural state space model (SSM) and incorporating copula-augmented mechanism into that, which can learn uncertainty-dependencies knowledge and understand interactive relationships between various factors from large-scale electricity time-series data. Our method distinguishes itself from existing models by its traceable inference procedure and its capability of providing high-quality probabilistic distribution predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world electricity datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms the alternatives.

AAAI 2022

PrEF: Probabilistic Electricity Forecasting via Copula-Augmented State Space Model

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
AAAI is providing you with a conference planner, which you can use to help organize your itinerary of activities. This includes talks to attend in person, talks to attend remotely, breaks with colleagues and your site seeing activities. To access this conference planner, please go to [https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io](https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io).

In order to access this site, you need to register. If you haven't already, please register [here](https://aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI-23/registration/).


AAAI 2023

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

According to the official adult literacy report conducted in 24 highly-developed countries, more than 50% adults, on average, can only understand basic vocabulary, short sentences, and basic syntactic constructions. Everyday information found in news articles is thus inaccessible to many people, impeding their social inclusion and informed decision-making. Systems for automatic sentence simplification aim to provide scalable solution to this problem. In this paper, we propose new state-of-the-art sentence simplification systems for English and Spanish, and specifications for expert evaluation that are in accordance with well-established easy-to-read guidelines. We conduct expert evaluation of our new systems and the previous state-of-the-art systems for English and Spanish, and discuss strengths and weaknesses of each of them. Finally, we draw conclusions about the capabilities of the state-of-the-art sentence simplification systems and give some directions for future research.

Sentence Simplification Capabilities of Transfer-Based Models

Masked Language Models (MLMs) have shown superior performances in numerous downstream Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks.
 Unfortunately, MLMs also demonstrate significantly worrying levels of social biases.
 We show that the previously proposed evaluation metrics for quantifying the social biases in MLMs are problematic due to the following reasons:
 (1) prediction accuracy of the masked tokens itself tend to be low in some MLMs,
 which leads to unreliable evaluation metrics, and 
 (2) in most downstream NLP tasks, masks are not used; therefore prediction of the mask is not directly related to them, and 
 (3) high-frequency words in the training data are masked more often, introducing noise due to this selection bias in the test cases.
 Therefore, we propose All Unmasked Likelihood (AUL), a bias evaluation measure that predicts all tokens in a test case given the MLM embedding of the unmasked input and AUL with Attention weights (AULA) to evaluate tokens based on their importance in a sentence.
 Our experimental results show that the proposed bias evaluation measures accurately detect different types of biases in MLMs, and unlike AUL and AULA, previously proposed measures for MLMs systematically overestimate the measured biases and are heavily influenced by the unmasked tokens in the context.

Unmasking the Mask – Evaluating Social Biases in Masked Language Models

Particle physics simulations are the cornerstone of nuclear engineering applications. Among them radiotherapy (RT) is crucial for society, with 50% of cancer patients receiving radiation treatments. For the most precise targeting of tumors, next generation RT treatments aim for real-time correction during radiation delivery, necessitating particle transport algorithms that yield precise dose distributions in sub-second times even in highly heterogeneous patient geometries. This is infeasible with currently available, purely physics based simulations. In this study, we present a data-driven dose calculation algorithm predicting the dose deposited by mono-energetic proton beams for arbitrary energies and patient geometries. Our approach frames particle transport as sequence modeling, where convolutional layers extract important spatial features into tokens and the transformer self-attention mechanism routes information between such tokens in the sequence and a beam energy token. We train our network and evaluate prediction accuracy using computationally expensive but accurate Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, considered the gold standard in particle physics. Our proposed model is 33 times faster than current clinical analytic pencil beam algorithms, improving upon their accuracy in the most heterogeneous and challenging geometries. With a relative error of 0.34Â±0.2% and very high gamma pass rate of 99.59Â±0.7% (1%, 3 mm), it also greatly outperforms the only published similar data-driven proton dose algorithm, even at a finer grid resolution. Offering MC precision 4000 times faster, our model could overcome a major obstacle that has so far prohibited real-time adaptive proton treatments and significantly increase cancer treatment efficacy. Its potential to model physics interactions of other particles could also boost heavy ion treatment planning procedures limited by the speed of traditional methods.

Learning the Physics of Particle Transport via Transformers

Accurate electricity demand forecasts play a key role in sustainable power systems. To enable better decision-making especially for demand flexibility of the end-user, it is necessary to provide not only accurate but also understandable and actionable forecasts. To provide accurate forecasts Global Forecasting Models (GFM) that are trained across time series have shown superior results in many demand forecasting competitions and real-world applications recently, compared with univariate forecasting approaches. We aim to fill the gap between the accuracy and the interpretability in global forecasting approaches. 
 In order to explain the global model forecasts, we propose Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Rule-based Explanations for Forecasting (LIMREF), which is a local explainer framework that produces k-optimal impact rules for a particular forecast, considering the global forecasting model as a black-box model, in a model-agnostic way. It provides different types of rules which explain the forecast of the global model and the counterfactual rules, which provide actionable insights for potential changes to obtain different outputs for given instances. We conduct experiments using a large-scale electricity demand dataset with exogenous features such as temperature and calendar effects. Here, we evaluate the quality of the explanations produced by the LIMREF framework in terms of both qualitative and quantitative aspects such as accuracy, fidelity and comprehensibility, and benchmark those against other local explainers.

LIMREF: Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Rule-Based Explanations for Forecasting, with an Application to Electricity Smart Meter Data

Agriculture is the foundation of human civilization. However, the rapid increase of the global population poses a challenge on this cornerstone by demanding more food. Modern autonomous greenhouses, equipped with sensors and actuators, provide a promising solution to the problem by empowering precise control for high-efficient food production. However, the optimal control of autonomous greenhouses is challenging, requiring decision-making based on high-dimensional sensory data, and the scaling of production is limited by the scarcity of labor capable of handling this task. With the advances of artificial intelligence (AI), the internet of things (IoT), and cloud computing technologies, we are hopeful to provide a solution to automate and smarten greenhouse control to address the above challenges. In this paper, we propose a smart agriculture solution named iGrow, for autonomous greenhouse control (AGC): (1) for the first time, we formulate the AGC problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) optimization problem; (2) we design a neural network-based simulator incorporated with the incremental mechanism to simulate the complete planting process of an autonomous greenhouse, which provides a testbed for the optimization of control strategies; (3) we propose a closed-loop bi-level optimization algorithm, which can dynamically re-optimize the greenhouse control strategy with newly observed data during real-world production. We not only conduct simulation experiments but also deploy iGrow in real scenarios, and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of iGrow in autonomous greenhouse simulation and optimal control. Particularly, compelling results from the tomato pilot project in real autonomous greenhouses show that our solution significantly increases crop yield (+10.15%) and net profit (+92.70%) with statistical significance compared to planting experts. Our solution opens up a new avenue for greenhouse production. The code is available at https://github.com/holmescao/iGrow.git.

iGrow: A Smart Agriculture Solution to Autonomous Greenhouse Control

Being able to explain the prediction to clinical end-users is a necessity to leverage the power of artificial intelligence (AI) models for clinical decision support. For medical images, a feature attribution map, or heatmap, is the most common form of explanation that highlights important features for AI models' prediction. However, it is unknown how well heatmaps perform on explaining decisions on multi-modal medical images, where each image modality or channel visualizes distinct clinical information of the same underlying biomedical phenomenon. Understanding such modality-dependent features is essential for clinical users' interpretation of AI decisions. To tackle this clinically important but technically ignored problem, we propose the modality-specific feature importance (MSFI) metric. It encodes clinical image and explanation interpretation patterns of modality prioritization and modality-specific feature localization. We conduct a clinical requirement-grounded, systematic evaluation using computational methods and a clinician user study. Results show that the examined 16 heatmap algorithms failed to fulfill clinical requirements to correctly indicate AI model decision process or decision quality. The evaluation and MSFI metric can guide the design and selection of explainable AI algorithms to meet clinical requirements on multi-modal explanation.

Evaluating Explainable AI on a Multi-Modal Medical Imaging Task: Can Existing Algorithms Fulfill Clinical Requirements?

Gender bias is one of the most common and well-studied demographic biases in information retrieval, and in general in AI systems. After discovering and reporting that gender bias for certain professions could change searchers' worldviews, mainstreaming image search engines, such as Google, quickly took action to correct and fix such a bias. However, given the nature of these systems, viz., being opaque, it is unclear if they addressed unequal gender representation and gender stereotypes in image search results systematically and in a sustainable way. In this paper, we propose adversarial attack queries composed of professions and countries (e.g., 'CEO United States') to investigate whether gender bias is thoroughly mitigated by image search engines. Our experiments on Google, Baidu, Naver, and Yandex Image Search show that the proposed attack can trigger high levels of gender bias in image search results very effectively. To defend against such attacks and mitigate gender bias, we design and implement three novel re-ranking algorithms -- epsilon-greedy algorithm, relevance-aware swapping algorithm, and fairness-greedy algorithm, to re-rank returned images for given image queries. Experiments on both simulated (three typical gender distributions) and real-world datasets demonstrate the proposed algorithms can mitigate gender bias effectively.

Has CEO Gender Bias Really Been Fixed? Adversarial Attacking and Improving Gender Fairness in Image Search

Over the past several years, legal applications of deep learning have been on the rise. However, as with other high-stakes decision making areas, the requirement for interpretability is of crucial importance. Current models utilized by legal practitioners are more of the conventional machine learning type, wherein they are inherently interpretable, yet unable to harness the performance capabilities of data-driven deep learning models. In this work, we utilize deep learning models in the area of trademark law to shed light on the issue of likelihood of confusion between trademarks. Specifically, we introduce a model-agnostic interpretable intermediate layer, a technique which proves to be effective for legal documents. Furthermore, we utilize weakly supervised learning by means of a curriculum learning strategy, effectively demonstrating the improved performance of a deep learning model. This is in contrast to the conventional models which are only able to utilize the limited number of expensive manually-annotated samples by legal experts. Although the methods presented in this work tackles the task of risk of confusion for trademarks, it is straightforward to extend them to other fields of law, or more generally, to other similar high-stakes application scenarios.

Interpretable Low-Resource Legal Decision Making

Studies have shown that some Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems encode and replicate harmful biases with potential adverse ethical effects in our society. In this article, we propose an approach for identifying gender and racial stereotypes in word embeddings trained on judicial opinions from U.S. case law. Embeddings containing stereotype information may cause harm when used by downstream systems for classification, information extraction, question answering, or other machine learning systems used to build legal research tools. We first explain how previously proposed methods for identifying these biases are not well suited for use with word embeddings trained on legal opinion text. We then propose a domain adapted method for identifying gender and racial biases in the legal domain. Our analyses using these methods suggest that racial and gender biases are encoded into word embeddings trained on legal opinions. These biases are not mitigated by exclusion of historical data, and appear across multiple large topical areas of the law. Implications for downstream systems that use legal opinion word embeddings and suggestions for potential mitigation strategies based on our observations are also discussed.

Gender and Racial Stereotype Detection in Legal Opinion Word Embeddings

Air pollution is a global problem and severely impacts human health. Fine-grained air quality (AQ) monitoring is important in mitigating air pollution. However, existing AQ station deployments are sparse. Conventional interpolation techniques fail to learn the complex AQ phenomena. Physics-based models require domain knowledge and pollution source data for AQ modeling. In this work, we propose a Gaussian processes based approach for estimating AQ. The important features of our approach are: a) a non-stationary (NS) kernel to allow input depended smoothness of fit; b) a Hamming distance-based kernel for categorical features; and c) a locally periodic kernel to capture temporal periodicity. We leverage batch-wise training to scale our approach to a large amount of data. Our approach outperforms the conventional baselines and a state-of-the-art neural attention-based approach.

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Sentence Simplification Capabilities of Transfer-Based Models

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Sentence Simplification Capabilities of Transfer-Based Models

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