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This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower&#39;s repayment when there is a change in the lender&#39;s credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

AAAI 2021

The Causal Learning of Retail Delinquency

EMNLP 2021 is planned to be a hybrid event in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, with both on-site and fully virtual participation possible. The experience for on-site participants would closely approximate a normal pre-COVID *ACL conference, with 5-6 thematically organized parallel sessions and live Q/A and interactive discussion immediately after the talks. Presentations by virtual participants will be equitably interleaved with those of on-site participants, projected on the auditorium screens as if on-site, and also followed immediately by live Q/A and interactive discussion at a time during reasonable waking hours for the virtual presenter. For all participants, on-site and virtual, who are unable to attend a session due to either time-zone issues or because they are participating in another session live, talk recordings and slides will be available online at a minimum after the live presentation (and in many cases before as well), and questions may be submitted in advance on session-specific discussion boards and answered live in session with the usual visual aids if desired.

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EMNLP 2021

EMNLP 2021 is planned to be a hybrid event in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, with both on-site and fully virtual participation possible.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

technical paper

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

The increasing demand for democratizing machine learning algorithms calls for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) solutions at low cost. Many machine learning algorithms have hyperparameters which can cause a large variation in the training cost. But this effect is largely ignored in existing HPO methods, which are incapable to properly control cost during the optimization process. To address this problem, we develop a new cost-frugal HPO solution. The core of our solution is a simple but new randomized direct-search method, for which we provide theoretical guarantees on the convergence rate and the total cost incurred to achieve convergence. We provide strong empirical results in comparison with state-of-the-art HPO methods on large AutoML benchmarks.

Frugal Optimization for Cost-Related Hyperparameters

Recent automatic storytelling methods mainly rely on keyword planning or plot skeleton generation to model long-range dependencies and create consistent narrative texts.
However, these approaches generate story plans or plots sequentially, leaving the non-sequential conception and structural design processes of human writers unexplored.
To mimic human writers and exploit the fine-grained, intrinsic structural information of each story, we decompose automatic story generation into sub-problems of graph construction, graph generation, and graph-infused sequence generation.
Specifically, we propose a graph-infused dual conditional variational autoencoder model to capture multi-level intra-story structures (i.e., graph) by continuous variational latent variables and generate consistent stories through dual-infusion of story structure planning and content learning.
Experimental results on the ROCStories dataset and the CMU Movie Summary corpus confirm that our proposed model outperforms strong baselines in both human judges and widely-used automatic metrics.

Content Learning with Structure-Aware Writing: A Graph-Infused Dual Conditional Variational Autoencoder for Automatic Storytelling

The recent success of deep learning techniques for abstractive summarization is predicated on the availability of large-scale datasets.  When summarizing reviews (e.g., for products or movies), such training data is neither available nor can be easily sourced, motivating the development of methods which rely on synthetic datasets for supervised training.  We show that explicitly incorporating content planning in a summarization model not only yields output of higher quality, but also allows the creation of synthetic datasets which are more natural, resembling real world document-summary pairs.  Our content plans take the form of aspect and sentiment distributions which we induce from data without access to expensive annotations. Synthetic datasets are created by sampling pseudo-reviews from a Dirichlet distribution parametrized by our content planner, while our model generates summaries based on input reviews and induced content plans.  Experimental results on three domains show that our approach outperforms competitive models in generating informative, coherent, and fluent summaries that capture opinion consensus.

Unsupervised Opinion Summarization with Content Planning

Generative models can be trained to emulate complex empirical data, but are they useful to make predictions in the context of previously unobserved environments? An intuitive idea to promote such extrapolation capabilities is to have the architecture of such model reflect a causal graph of the true data generating process, such that one can intervene on each node independently of the others. However, the nodes of this graph are usually unobserved, leading to overparameterization and lack of identifiability of the causal structure. We develop a theoretical framework to address this challenging situation by defining a weaker form of identifiability, based on the principle of independence of mechanisms. We demonstrate on toy examples that classical stochastic gradient descent can hinder the model's extrapolation capabilities, suggesting independence of mechanisms should be enforced explicitly during training. Experiments on deep generative models trained on real world data support these insights and illustrate how the extrapolation capabilities of such models can be leveraged.

A Theory of Independent Mechanisms for Extrapolation in Generative Models

The progress in Query-focused Multi-Document Summarization (QMDS) has been limited by the lack of sufficient largescale high-quality training datasets. We present two QMDS training datasets, which we construct using two data augmentation methods: (1) transferring the commonly used single-document CNN/Daily Mail summarization dataset to create the QMDSCNN dataset, and (2) mining search-query logs to create the QMDSIR dataset. These two datasets have complementary properties, i.e., QMDSCNN has real summaries but queries are simulated, while QMDSIR has real queries but simulated summaries. To cover both these real summary and query aspects, we build abstractive end-to-end neural network models on the combined datasets that yield new state-of-the-art transfer results on DUC datasets. We also introduce new hierarchical encoders that enable a more efficient encoding of the query together with multiple documents. Empirical results demonstrate that our data augmentation and encoding methods outperform baseline models on automatic metrics, as well as on human evaluations along multiple attributes.

Data Augmentation for Abstractive Query-Focused Multi-Document Summarization

We consider grounding open domain dialogues with images. Existing work assumes that both an image and a textual context are available, but image-grounded dialogues by nature are more difficult to obtain than textual dialogues. Thus, we propose learning a response generation model with both image-grounded dialogues and textual dialogues by assuming that the visual scene information at the time of a conversation can be represented by an image, and trying to recover the latent images of the textual dialogues through text-to-image generation techniques. The likelihood of the two types of dialogues is then formulated by a response generator and an image reconstructor that are learned within a conditional variational auto-encoding framework. Empirical studies are conducted in both image-grounded conversation and text-based conversation. In the first scenario, image-grounded dialogues, especially under a low-resource setting, can be effectively augmented by textual dialogues with latent images; while in the second scenario, latent images can enrich the content of responses and at the same time keep them relevant to contexts.

Open Domain Dialogue Generation with Latent Images

Neural networks are often over-parameterized and hence benefit from aggressive regularization. Conventional regularization methods, such as dropout or weight decay, do not leverage the structures of the network's inputs and hidden states. As a result, these conventional methods are less effective than methods that leverage the structures, such as SpatialDropout and DropBlock, which randomly drop the values at certain contiguous areas in the hidden states and setting them to zero. Although the locations of dropping areas random, the patterns of SpatialDropout and DropBlock are manually designed and fixed. Here we propose to learn the dropping patterns. In our method, a controller learns to generate a dropping pattern at every channel and layer of a target network, such as a ConvNet or a Transformer. The target network is then trained with the dropping pattern, and its resulting validation performance is used as a signal for the controller to learn from. We show that this method works well for both image recognition on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, as well as language modeling on Penn Treebank and WikiText-2. The learned dropping patterns also transfers to different tasks and datasets, such as from language model on Penn Treebank to Engligh-French translation on WMT 2014. Our code will be available at: https://github.com/googleresearch/google-research/tree/master/auto_dropout.

AutoDrop: Learning Dropping Patterns to Regularize Deep Networks

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a widely used method for its outstanding generalization ability and simplicity. Adaptive gradient methods have been proposed to further accelerate the optimization process. In this paper, we revisit existing adaptive gradient optimization methods with a new interpretation. Such new perspective leads to a refreshed understanding of the roles of second moments in stochastic optimization. Based on this, we propose Angle-Calibration Moment method (ACMo), a novel stochastic optimization method. It enjoys the benefits of second moments with only first moment updates. Theoretical analysis shows that ACMo is able to achieve the same convergence rate as mainstream adaptive methods. Experiments on a variety of CV and NLP tasks demonstrate that ACMo has a comparable convergence to state-of-the-art Adam-type optimizers, and even a better generalization performance in most cases. The code is available at https://github.com/Xunpeng746/ACMo.

ACMo: Angle-Calibrated Moment Methods for Stochastic Optimization

In this paper, we study fundamental problems of maximizing DR-submodular continuous functions that have real-world applications in the domain of machine learning, economics, operations research and communication systems. It captures a subclass of non-convex optimization that provides both theoretical and practical guarantees. Here, we focus on minimizing regret for online arriving non-monotone DR-submodular functions over down-closed and general convex sets.
First, we present an online algorithm that achieves a 1/e-approximation ratio with the regret of O(T^{3/4}) for maximizing DR-submodular functions over any down-closed convex set. Note that, the approximation ratio of 1/e matches the best-known guarantee for the offline version of the problem. Next, we give an online algorithm that achieves an approximation guarantee (depending on the search space) for the problem of maximizing non-monotone continuous DR-submodular functions over a general convex set (not necessarily down-closed). To best of our knowledge, no prior algorithm with approximation guarantee was known for non-monotone DR-submodular maximization in the online setting. Finally we run experiments to verify the performance of our algorithms on problems arising in machine learning domain with the real-world datasets.

Online Non-Monotone DR-Submodular Maximization

In this paper, we study a novel problem, Minimum Robust Multi-Submodular Cover for Fairness (MinRF), as follows: given a ground set V; m monotone submodular functions f_1,...,f_m; m thresholds T_1,...,T_m and a non-negative integer r; MinRF asks for the smallest set S such that f_i(S \ X) â‰¥ T_i for all i âˆˆ [m] and |X| â‰¤ r. We prove that MinRF is inapproximable within (1- Îµ) ln m; and no algorithm, taking fewer than exponential number of queries in term of r, is able to output a feasible set to MinRF with high certainty. Three bicriteria approximation algorithms with performance guarantees are proposed: one for r = 0, one for r = 1, and one for general r. We further investigate our algorithms' performance in two applications of MinRF, Information Propagation for Multiple Groups and Movie Recommendation for Multiple Users. Our algorithms have shown to outperform baseline heuristics in both solution quality and the number of queries in most cases.

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