United States

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has crushed daily routines and is still rampaging through the world. Existing solution for nonpharmaceutical interventions usually needs to timely and precisely select a subset of residential urban areas for containment or even quarantine, where the spatial distribution of confirmed cases has been considered as a key criterion for the subset selection. While such containment measure has successfully stopped or slowed down the spread of COVID-19 in some countries, it is criticized for being inefficient or ineffective, as the statistics of confirmed cases are usually time-delayed and coarse-grained. To tackle the issues, we propose C-Watcher, a novel data-driven framework that aims at screening every neighborhood in a target city and predicting infection risks, prior to the spread of COVID-19 from epicenters to the city. In terms of design, C-Watcher collects large-scale long-term human mobility data from Baidu Maps, then characterizes every residential neighborhood in the city using a set of features based on urban mobility patterns. Furthermore, to transfer the firsthand knowledge (witted in epicenters) to the target city before local outbreaks, we adopt a novel adversarial encoder framework to learn â€œcity-invariantâ€ representations from the mobility-related features for precise early detection of high-risk neighborhoods, even before any confirmed cases known, in the target city. We carried out extensive experiments on C-Watcher using the real-data records in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreaks, where the results demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of C-Watcher for early detection of high-risk neighborhoods from a large number of cities.

AAAI 2021

C-Watcher: A Framework for Early Detection of High-Risk Neighborhoods Ahead of COVID-19 Outbreak

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

technical paper

Given access to accurate dynamical models, modern planning approaches are effective in computing feasible and optimal plans for repetitive robotic tasks. However, it is difficult to model the true dynamics of the real world before execution, especially for tasks requiring interactions with objects whose parameters are unknown. A recent planning approach, CMAX, tackles this problem by adapting the planner online during execution to bias the resulting plans away from inaccurately modeled regions. CMAX, while being provably guaranteed to reach the goal, requires strong assumptions on the accuracy of the model used for planning and fails to improve the quality of the solution over repetitions of the same task. In this paper we propose CMAX++, an approach that leverages real-world experience to improve the quality of resulting plans over successive repetitions of a robotic task. CMAX++ achieves this by integrating model-free learning using acquired experience with model-based planning using the potentially inaccurate model. We provide provable guarantees on the completeness and asymptotic convergence of CMAX++ to the optimal path cost as the number of repetitions increases. CMAX++ is also shown to outperform baselines in simulated robotic tasks including 3D mobile robot navigation where the track friction is incorrectly modeled, and a 7D pick-and-place task where the mass of the object is unknown leading to discrepancy between true and modeled dynamics.

CMAX++ : Leveraging Experience in Planning and Execution Using Inaccurate Models

Continual learning has been a major problem in the deep learning community, where the main challenge is how to effectively learn a series of newly arriving tasks without forgetting the knowledge of previous tasks. Initiated by Learning without Forgetting (LwF), many of the existing works report that knowledge distillation is effective to preserve the previous knowledge, and hence they commonly use a soft label for the old task, namely a knowledge distillation (KD) loss, together with a class label for the new task, namely a cross entropy (CE) loss, to form a composite loss for a single neural network. However, this approach suffers from learning the knowledge by a CE loss as a KD loss often more strongly influences the objective function when they are in a competitive situation within a single network. This could be a critical problem particularly in a class incremental scenario, where the knowledge across tasks as well as within the new task, both of which can only be acquired by a CE loss, is essentially learned due to the existence of a unified classifier. In this paper, we propose a novel continual learning method, called Split-and-Bridge, which can successfully address the above problem by partially splitting a neural network into two partitions for training the new task separated from the old task and re-connecting them for learning the knowledge across tasks. In our thorough experimental analysis, our Split-and-Bridge method outperforms the state-of-the-art competitors in KD-based continual learning.

Split-and-Bridge: Adaptable Class Incremental Learning within a Single Neural Network

Deployments of game-theoretic solution concepts in the real world have highlighted the necessity to consider human opponents' boundedly rational behavior. If subrationality is not addressed, the system can face significant losses in terms of expected utility. While there exist algorithms for computing optimal strategies to commit to when facing subrational decision-makers in one-shot interactions, these algorithms cannot be generalized for solving sequential scenarios because of the inherent curse of strategy-space dimensionality in sequential games and because humans act subrationally in each decision point separately. We study optimal strategies to commit to against subrational opponents in sequential games for the first time and make the following key contributions: (1) we prove the problem is NP-hard in general; (2) to enable further analysis, we introduce a non-fractional reformulation of the direct non-concave representation of the equilibrium;  (3) we identify conditions under which the problem can be approximated in polynomial time in the size of the representation; (4) we show how an MILP can approximate the reformulation with a guaranteed bounded error, and (5) we experimentally demonstrate that our algorithm provides higher quality results several orders of magnitude faster than a baseline method for general non-linear optimization.

Computing Quantal Stackelberg Equilibrium in Extensive-Form Games

Video super-resolution (VSR) aims at restoring a video in low-resolution (LR) and improving it to higher-resolution (HR). Due to the characteristics of video tasks, it is very important that motion information among frames should be well concerned, summarized and utilized for guidance in a VSR algorithm. Especially, when a video contains large motion, conventional methods easily bring incoherent results or artifacts. In this paper, we propose a novel deep neural network with Dual Subnet and Multi-stage Communicated Upsampling (DSMC) for super-resolution of videos with large motion. We design a new module named U-shaped residual dense network with 3D convolution (U3D-RDN) for fine implicit motion estimation and motion compensation (MEMC) as well as coarse spatial feature extraction. And we present a new Multi-Stage Communicated Upsampling (MSCU) module to make full use of the intermediate results of upsampling for guiding the VSR. Moreover, a novel dual subnet is devised to aid the training of our DSMC, whose dual loss helps to reduce the solution space as well as enhance the generalization ability. Our experimental results confirm that our method achieves superior performance on videos with large motion compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Large Motion Video Super-Resolution with Dual Subnet and Multi-Stage Communicated Upsampling

Given a propositional formula Ïˆ, the model counting problem, also referred to as #SAT, seeks to compute the number of satisfying assignments (or models) of Ïˆ. Modern search-based model counting algorithms are built on conflict-driven clause learning, combined with the caching of certain subformulas (called components) encountered during the search process. Despite significant progress in these algorithms over the years, state-of-the-art model counters often struggle to handle large but structured instances that typically arise in combinatorial settings. Motivated by the observation that these counters do not exploit the inherent symmetries exhibited in such instances, we revisit the component caching architecture employed in current counters and introduce a novel caching scheme that focuses on identifying symmetric components. We first prove the soundness of our approach, and then integrate it into the state-of-the-art model counter GANAK. Our extensive experiments on hard combinatorial instances demonstrate that the resulting counter, SymGANAK, leads to improvements over GANAK both in terms of PAR-2 score and the number of instances solved.

Symmetric Component Caching for Model Counting on Combinatorial Instances

Potential crowd flow prediction for new planned transportationÂ sites is a fundamental task for urban planners and administrators. Intuitively, the potential crowd flow of the new comingÂ site can be implied by exploring the nearby sites. However, the transportation modes of nearby sites (e.g. bus stations,Â bicycle stations) might be different from the target site (e.g. subway station), which results in severe data scarcity issues. To this end, we propose a data-driven approach, named MOHER, to predict the potential crowd flow in a certain mode for a new planned site. Specifically, we first identify the neighbor regions of the target site by examining the geographical proximity as well as the urban function similarity. Then, to aggregate these heterogeneous relations, we devise a cross-mode relational GCN, a novel relation-specific transformation model, which can learn not only the correlation but also the differences between different transportation modes. Afterward, we design an aggregator for inductive potential flow representation. Finally, an LTSM module is used for sequential flow prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world data sets demonstrate the superiority of the MOHER framework comparedÂ with the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Modeling Heterogeneous Relations across Multiple Modes for Potential Crowd Flow Prediction

Stochastic Boolean Satisfiability (SSAT) is a logical formalism to model decision problems with uncertainty, such as Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) for verification of probabilistic systems. SSAT, however, is limited by its descriptive power within the PSPACE complexity class. More complex problems, such as the NEXPTIME-complete Decentralized POMDP (Dec-POMDP), cannot be succinctly encoded with SSAT. To provide a logical formalism of such problems, we generalize the Dependency Quantified Boolean Formula (DQBF), a representative problem in the NEXPTIME-complete class, to its stochastic variant, named Dependency SSAT (DSSAT), and show that DSSAT is also NEXPTIME-complete. We demonstrate the potential applications of DSSAT to circuit synthesis of probabilistic and approximate design. Furthermore, to study the descriptive power of DSSAT, we establish a polynomial-time reduction from Dec-POMDP to DSSAT. With the theoretical foundations paved in this work, we hope to encourage the development of DSSAT solvers for potential broad applications.

Dependency Stochastic Boolean Satisfiability: A Logical Formalism for NEXPTIME Decision Problems with Uncertainty

Safe navigation of autonomous agents in human centric environments requires the ability to understand and predict motion of neighboring pedestrians. However, predicting pedestrian intent is a complex problem. Pedestrian motion is governed by complex social navigation norms, is dependent on neighbors' trajectories and is multimodal in nature. In this work, we propose SCAN, a Spatial Context Attentive Network that can jointly predict socially-acceptable multiple future trajectories for all pedestrians in a scene. SCAN encodes the influence of spatially close neighbors using a novel spatial attention mechanism in a manner that relies on fewer assumptions, is parameter efficient, and is more interpretable compared to state-of-the-art spatial attention approaches. Through experiments on several datasets we demonstrate that our approach can also quantitatively outperform state of the art trajectory prediction methods in terms of accuracy of predicted intent.

SCAN: A Spatial Context Attentive Network for Joint Multi-Agent Intent Prediction

Sequential recommendation has become increasingly essential in various online services. It aims to model the dynamic preferences of users from their historical interactions and predict their next items. The accumulated user behavior records on real systems could be very long. This rich data brings opportunities to track actual interests of users. Prior efforts mainly focus on making recommendations based on relatively recent behaviors. However, the overall sequential data may not be effectively utilized, as early interactions might affect users' current choices. Also, it has become intolerable to scan the entire behavior sequence when performing inference for each user, since real-world system requires short response time. To bridge the gap, we propose a novel long sequential recommendation model, called Dynamic Memory-based Attention Network (DMAN). It segments the overall long behavior sequence into a series of sub-sequences, then trains the model and maintains a set of memory blocks to preserve long-term interests of users. To improve memory fidelity, DMAN dynamically abstracts each user's long-term interest into its own memory blocks by minimizing an auxiliary reconstruction loss. Based on the dynamic memory, the user's short-term and long-term interests can be explicitly extracted and combined for efficient joint recommendation. Empirical results over four benchmark datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model in capturing long-term dependency over various state-of-the-art sequential models.

Dynamic Memory Based Attention Network for Sequential Recommendation

We propose a semi-supervised bootstrap learning framework for few-shot text classification. From a small amount of the initial dataset, our framework obtains a larger set of reliable training data by using the attention weights from an LSTM-based trained classifier. We first train an LSTM-based text classifier from a given labeled dataset using the attention mechanism. Then, we collect a set of words for each class called a lexicon, which is supposed to be a representative set of words for each class based on the attention weights calculated for the classification task. We bootstrap the classifier using the new data that are labeled by the combination of the classifier and the constructed lexicons to improve the prediction accuracy. As a result, our approach outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods including semi-supervised learning algorithms and pretraining algorithms for  few-shot text classification task on four publicly available benchmark datasets. Moreover, we empirically confirm that the constructed lexicons are reliable enough and substantially improve the performance of the original classifier.

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