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The concept of potential outcome types is one of the fundamental components of causal inference. However, even in randomized experiments, assumptions on the data generating process, such as monotonicity (Tian and Pearl, 2000), are required to evaluate the probabilities of the potential outcome types. To solve the problem without such assumptions in experimental studies, a novel identification condition based on proxy covariate information is proposed in this paper. In addition, the estimation problem of the probabilities of the potential outcome types reduces to that of singular models when they are identifiable through the proposed condition. Thus, they cannot be evaluated by standard statistical estimation methods. To overcome this difficulty, new plug-in estimators of these probabilities are presented, and the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators is shown. 

AAAI 2023

Probabilities of Potential Outcome Types in Experimental Studies: Identification and Estimation Based on Proxy Covariate Information

proxy covariate

probability of causation

potential outcome types

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
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The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

poster

We formalize and analyze a fundamental component of dif-
ferentiable neural architecture search (NAS): local “opera-
tion scoring” at each operation choice. We view existing
operation scoring functions as inexact proxies for accuracy,
and we find that they perform poorly when analyzed empir-
ically on NAS benchmarks. From this perspective, we intro-
duce a novel perturbation-based zero-cost operation scor-
ing (Zero-Cost-PT) approach, which utilizes zero-cost prox-
ies that were recently studied in multi-trial NAS but de-
grade significantly on larger search spaces, typical for dif-
ferentiable NAS. We conduct a thorough empirical evalu-
ation on a number of NAS benchmarks and large search
spaces, from NAS-Bench-201, NAS-Bench-1Shot1, NAS-
Bench-Macro, to DARTS-like and MobileNet-like spaces,
showing significant improvements in both search time and
accuracy. On the ImageNet classification task on the DARTS
search space, our approach improved accuracy compared to
the best current training-free methods (TE-NAS) while be-
ing over 10× faster (total searching time 25 minutes on a
single GPU), and observed significantly better transferabil-
ity on architectures searched on the CIFAR-10 dataset with
an accuracy increase of 1.8 pp. Our code is available at:
https://github.com/zerocostptnas/zerocost operation score.

Zero-Cost Operation Scoring in Differentiable Architecture Search

Multi-arm bandit (MAB) and stochastic linear bandit (SLB) are important models in reinforcement learning, and it is well-known that classical algorithms for bandits with time horizon $T$ suffer $\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ regret. In this paper, we study MAB and SLB with quantum reward oracles and propose quantum algorithms for both models with $O(\poly(\log T))$ regrets, exponentially improving the dependence in terms of $T$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provable quantum speedup for regrets of bandit problems and in general exploitation in reinforcement learning. Compared to previous literature on quantum exploration algorithms for MAB and reinforcement learning, our quantum input model is simpler and only assumes quantum oracles for each individual arm.

Quantum Multi-Armed Bandits and Stochastic Linear Bandits Enjoy Logarithmic Regrets

Although increasing model size can enhance the adversarial robustness of deep neural networks, in resource-constrained environments, however, there exist critical sparsity constraints. While the recent robust pruning technologies show promising direction to obtain adversarially robust sparse networks, they perform poorly with high sparsity. In this work, we bridge this performance gap by reparameterizing network parameters to simultaneously learns the sparse structure and the robustness. Specifically, we introduce Twin-Rep, which reparameterizes original weights into the product of two factors during training and perform pruning on the reparameterized weights to satisfy the target sparsity constraint. Twin-Rep implicitly adds the sparsity constraint without changing the robust training objective, thus can enhance robustness under high sparsity. We also introduce another variant of weight reparameterization for better channel pruning. When inferring, we restore the original weight structure to obtain compact and robust networks. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art results, outperforming the current sparse robust training method and robustness-aware pruning method.

Learning Adversarially Robust Sparse Networks via Weight Reparameterization

The problem of adversarial attacks to a black-box model when no queries are allowed has posed a great challenge to the community and has been extensively investigated. In this setting, one simple yet effective method is to transfer the obtained adversarial examples from attacking surrogate models to fool the target model. Previous works have studied what kind of attacks to the surrogate model can generate more transferable adversarial examples, but their performances are still limited due to the mismatches between surrogate models and the target model. In this paper, we tackle this problem from a novel angle---instead of using the original surrogate models, can we obtain a Meta-Surrogate Model (MSM) such that attacks to this model can be easily transferred to other models? We show that this goal can be mathematically formulated as a bi-level optimization problem and design a differentiable attacker to make training feasible. Given one or a set of surrogate models, our method can thus obtain an MSM such that adversarial examples generated on MSM enjoy eximious transferability. Comprehensive experiments on Cifar-10 and ImageNet demonstrate that by attacking the MSM, we can obtain stronger transferable adversarial examples to deceive black-box models including adversarially trained ones, with much higher success rates than existing methods. 

Training Meta-Surrogate Model for Transferable Adversarial Attack

In Reinforcement Learning, the performance of learning agents is highly sensitive to the choice of time discretization. Agents acting at high frequencies have the best control opportunities, along with some drawbacks, such as possible inefficient exploration and vanishing of the action advantages. The repetition of the actions, i.e., action persistence, comes into help, as it allows the agent to visit wider regions of the state space and improve the estimation of the action effects. In this work, we derive a novel operator, the All-Persistence Bellman Operator, which allows an effective use of both the low-persistence experience, by decomposition into sub-transition, and the high-persistence experience, thanks to the introduction of a suitable bootstrap procedure. In this way, we employ transitions collected at any time scale to update simultaneously the action values of the considered persistence set. We prove the contraction property of the All-Persistence Bellman Operator and, based on it, we extend classic Q-learning and DQN. After providing a study on the effects of persistence, we experimentally evaluate our approach in both tabular contexts and more challenging frameworks, including some Atari games.

Simultaneously Updating All Persistence Values in Reinforcement Learning

Black-box optimization (BBO) algorithms are concerned with finding the best solutions for problems with missing analytical details. Most classical methods for such problems are based on strong and fixed a priori assumptions, such as Gaussianity. However, the complex real-world problems, especially when the global optimum is desired, could be very far from the a priori assumptions because of their diversities, causing unexpected obstacles.   In this study, we propose a generative adversarial net-based broad-spectrum global optimizer (OPT-GAN) which estimates the distribution of optimum gradually, with strategies to balance exploration-exploitation trade-off. It has potential to better adapt to the regularity and structure of diversified landscapes than other methods with fixed prior, e.g., Gaussian assumption or separability. 
Experiments on diverse BBO benchmarks and high dimensional real world applications exhibit that OPT-GAN outperforms other traditional and neural net-based BBO algorithms. The code and Appendix are available at https://github.com/NBICLAB/OPT-GAN

OPT-GAN: A Broad-Spectrum Global Optimizer for Black-box Problems by Learning Distribution

Submodular maximization has wide applications in machine learning and data mining, where massive datasets have brought the great need for designing efficient and parallelizable algorithms. One measure of the parallelizability of a submodular maximization algorithm is its adaptivity complexity, which indicates the number of sequential rounds where a polynomial number of queries to the objective function can be executed in parallel. In this paper, we study the problem of non-monotone submodular maximization subject to a knapsack constraint, and propose the \textit{first combinatorial} algorithm achieving an $(8+\epsilon)$-approximation under $\mathcal{O}(\log n)$ adaptive complexity, which is \textit{optimal} up to a factor of $\mathcal{O}(\log\log n)$. Moreover, under slightly larger adaptivity, we also propose approximation algorithms with \textit{nearly optimal} query complexity of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(n)$, while achieving better approximation ratios. We show that our algorithms can also be applied to the special case of submodular maximization subject to a cardinality constraint, and achieve performance bounds comparable with those of state-of-the-art algorithms. Finally, the effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated by extensive experiments on real-world applications.

Practical Parallel Algorithms for Submodular Maximization subject to a Knapsack Constraint with Nearly Optimal Adaptivity

Multimodal traffic flow can reflect the health of the transportation system, and its prediction is crucial to urban traffic management. Recent works overemphasize spatio-temporal correlations of traffic flow, ignoring the physical concepts that lead to the generation of observations and their causal relationship. Spatio-temporal correlations are considered unstable under the influence of different conditions, and spurious correlations may exist in observations. In this paper, we analyze the physical concepts affecting the generation of multimode traffic flow from the perspective of the observation generation principle and propose a Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model (CCHMM) to predict multimodal traffic flow. In the latent variables inference stage, a posterior network disentangles the causal representations of the concepts of interest from conditional information and observations, and a causal propagation module mines their causal relationship. In the data generation stage, a prior network samples the causal latent variables from the prior distribution and feeds them into the generator to generate multimodal traffic flow. We use a mutually supervised training method for the prior and posterior to enhance the identifiability of the model. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CCHMM can effectively disentangle causal representations of concepts of interest and identify causality, and accurately predict multimodal traffic flow.

Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model for Multimodal Traffic Prediction

We study a normalizing flow in the latent space of a top-down generator model, in which the normalizing flow model plays the role of the informative prior model of the generator. We propose to jointly learn the latent space normalizing flow prior model and the top-down generator model by a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based maximum likelihood algorithm, where a short-run Langevin sampling from the intractable posterior distribution is performed to infer the latent variables for each observed example, so that the parameters of the normalizing flow prior and the generator can be updated with the inferred latent variables. We show that, under the scenario of non-convergent short-run MCMC, the finite step Langevin dynamics is a flow-like approximate inference model and the learning objective actually follows the perturbation of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We further point out that the learning framework seeks to (i) match the latent space normalizing flow and the aggregated posterior produced by the short-run Langevin flow, and (ii) bias the model from MLE such that the short-run Langevin flow inference is close to the true posterior.  Empirical results of extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed latent space normalizing flow model in the tasks of image generation, image reconstruction, anomaly detection, supervised image inpainting and unsupervised image recovery.

A Tale of Two Latent Flows: Learning Latent Space Normalizing Flow with Short-run Langevin Flow for Approximate Inference

We consider a setting in which a social planner has to make a sequence of decisions to allocate scarce resources in a high-stakes domain. Our goal is to understand stakeholders' dynamic moral preferences toward such allocational policies. In particular, we evaluate the sensitivity of moral preferences to the history of allocations and their perceived future impact on various socially salient groups.  We propose a mathematical model to capture and infer such dynamic moral preferences. We illustrate our model through small-scale human-subject experiments focused on the allocation of scarce medical resource distributions during a hypothetical viral epidemic. We observe that participants' preferences are indeed history- and impact-dependent. Additionally, our preliminary experimental results reveal intriguing patterns specific to medical resources---a topic that is particularly salient against the backdrop of the global covid-19 pandemic.

Probabilities of Potential Outcome Types in Experimental Studies: Identification and Estimation Based on Proxy Covariate Information

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Zero-Cost Operation Scoring in Differentiable Architecture Search

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