United States

Modeling multi-variate time-series (MVTS) data is a long-standing research subject and has found wide applications. Recently, there is a surge of interest in modeling spatial relations between variables as graphs, i.e., first learning one static graph for each dataset and then exploiting the graph structure via graph neural networks. However, as spatial relations may differ substantially across samples, building one static graph for all the samples inherently limits flexibility and severely degrades the performance in practice. To address this issue, we propose a framework for fine-grained modeling and utilization of spatial correlation between variables. By analyzing the statistical properties of real-world datasets, a universal decomposition of spatial correlation graphs is first identified. Specifically, the hidden spatial relations can be decomposed into a prior part, which applies across all the samples, and a dynamic part, which varies between samples, and building different graphs is necessary to model these relations. To better coordinate the learning of the two relational graphs, we propose a min-max learning paradigm that not only regulates the common part of different dynamic graphs but also guarantees spatial distinguishability among samples. The experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on both time-series forecasting and time-series point prediction tasks.

AAAI 2023

Learning Decomposed Spatial Relations for Multi-Variate Time-Series Modeling

time-series/data streams

deep neural architectures

graph-based machine learning

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
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The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

poster

Pursuit-evasion games on graphs model coordination of police forces chasing a fleeing felon in real-world urban settings, using the standard framework of imperfect-information extensive-form games (EFGs). In recent years, solving EFGs has been largely dominated by the Policy-Space Response Oracle (PSRO) methods due to their modularity, scalability, and favorable convergence properties. However, even these methods quickly reach their limits when facing large combinatorial strategy spaces of the pursuit-evasion games. To improve their efficiency, we integrate the pre-training and fine-tuning paradigm into the core module of PSRO -- the repeated computation of the best response. First, we pre-train the pursuer's policy base model against many different strategies of the evader. Then we proceed with the PSRO loop and fine-tune the pre-trained policy to attain the pursuer's best responses. The empirical evaluation shows that our approach significantly outperforms the baselines in terms of speed and scalability, and can solve even games on street maps of megalopolises with tens of thousands of crossroads -- a scale beyond the effective reach of previous methods. 

Solving Large-Scale Pursuit-Evasion Games Using Pre-Trained Strategies

Selective classification (also known as classification with reject option) conservatively extends a classifier with a selection function to determine whether or not a  prediction should be accepted (i.e., trusted, used, deployed). This is a highly relevant issue in socially sensitive tasks, such as credit scoring.
State-of-the-art approaches rely on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) that train at the same time both the classifier and the selection function. These approaches are model-specific and computationally expensive. 
We propose a model-agnostic approach, as it can work with any base probabilistic binary classification algorithm, and it can be scalable to large tabular datasets if the base classifier is so. The proposed algorithm, called \textsc{SCross}, exploits a cross-fitting strategy and theoretical results for quantile estimation to build the selection function. Experiments on real-world data show that \textsc{SCross} improves over existing methods.

A Model-Agnostic Heuristics for Selective Classification

Neural forecasting of spatiotemporal time series drives both research and industrial innovation in several relevant application domains. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are often the core component of the forecasting architecture. However, in most spatiotemporal GNNs, the computational complexity scales up to a quadratic factor with the length of the sequence times the number of links in the graph, hence hindering the application of these models to large graphs and long temporal sequences. While methods to improve scalability have been proposed in the context of static graphs, few research efforts have been devoted to the spatiotemporal case. To fill this gap, we propose a scalable architecture that exploits an efficient encoding of both temporal and spatial dynamics. In particular, we use a randomized recurrent neural network to embed the history of the input time series into high-dimensional state representations encompassing multi-scale temporal dynamics. Such representations are then propagated along the spatial dimension using different powers of the graph adjacency matrix to generate node embeddings characterized by a rich pool of spatiotemporal features. The resulting node embeddings can be efficiently pre-computed in an unsupervised manner, before being fed to a feed-forward decoder that learns to map the multi-scale spatiotemporal representations to predictions. The training procedure can then be parallelized node-wise by sampling the node embeddings without breaking any dependency, thus enabling scalability to large networks. Empirical results on relevant datasets show that our approach achieves results competitive with the state of the art, while dramatically reducing the computational burden.

Scalable Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks

Distribution estimation has been demonstrated as one of the most effective approaches in dealing with few-shot image classification, as the low-level patterns and underlying representations can be easily transferred across different tasks in computer vision domain. However, directly applying this approach to few-shot text classification is challenging, since leveraging the statistics of known classes with sufficient samples to calibrate the distributions of novel classes may cause negative effects due to serious category difference in text domain. To alleviate this issue, we propose two simple yet effective strategies to estimate the distributions of the novel classes by utilizing unlabeled query samples, thus avoiding the potential negative transfer issue. Specifically, we first assume a class or sample follows the Gaussian distribution, and use the original support set and the nearest few query samples to estimate the corresponding mean and covariance. Then, we augment the labeled samples by sampling from the estimated distribution, which can provide sufficient supervision for training the classification model. Extensive experiments on eight few-shot text classification datasets show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines significantly.

Boosting Few-shot Text Classification via Distribution Estimation

Deep neural retrieval models have amply demonstrated their power but estimating the reliability of their predictions remains challenging. Most dialog response retrieval models output a single score for a response on how relevant it is to a given question. However, the bad calibration of deep neural network results in various uncertainty for the single score such that the unreliable predictions always misinform user decisions. To investigate these issues, we present an efficient calibration and uncertainty estimation framework PG-DRR for dialog response retrieval models which adds a Gaussian Process layer to a deterministic deep neural network and recovers conjugacy for tractable posterior inference by P\'{o}lya-Gamma augmentation. Finally, PG-DRR achieves the lowest empirical calibration error (ECE) in the in-domain datasets and the distributional shift task while keeping $R_{10}@1$ and MAP performance. 

On the Calibration and Uncertainty with P\'{o}lya-Gamma Augmentation for Dialog Retrieval Models

We develop an algorithm to improve the predictive performance of a pre-trained model under \textit{concept shift} without retraining the model from scratch when only unannotated samples of initial concepts are accessible. We model this problem as a domain adaptation problem, where the source domain data is inaccessible during model adaptation. The core idea is based on consolidating the intermediate internal distribution, learned to represent the source domain data, after adapting the model. We provide theoretical analysis and conduct extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets to demonstrate that the proposed method is effective. 

Overcoming Concept Shift in Domain-Aware Settings through Consolidated Internal Distributions

Emotion recognition in conversation (ERC) has received increasing attention from the research community. However, the ERC task is challenging, largely due to the complex and unstructured properties of multi-party conversations. Besides, the majority of daily dialogues take place in a specific context or circumstance, which requires rich external knowledge to understand the background of a certain dialogue. In this paper, we address these challenges by explicitly modeling the discourse relations between utterances and incorporating symbolic knowledge into multi-party conversations. We first introduce a dialogue parsing algorithm into ERC and further improve the algorithm through a transfer learning method. Moreover, we leverage different symbolic knowledge graph relations to learn knowledge-enhanced features for the ERC task. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that both dialogue structure graphs and symbolic knowledge are beneficial to the model performance on the task. Additionally, experimental results indicate that the proposed model surpasses baseline models on several indices.

SKIER: A Symbolic Knowledge Integrated Model for Conversational Emotion Recognition

Learning semantic-rich representations from raw unlabeled time series data is critical for downstream tasks such as classification and forecasting. Contrastive learning has recently shown its promising representation learning capability in the absence of expert annotations. However, existing contrastive approaches generally treat each instance independently, which leads to false negative pairs that share the same semantics. To tackle this problem, we propose MHCCL, a Masked Hierarchical Cluster-wise Contrastive Learning model, which exploits semantic information obtained from the hierarchical structure consisting of multiple latent partitions for multivariate time series. Motivated by the observation that fine-grained clustering preserves higher purity while coarse-grained one reflects higher-level semantics, we propose a novel downward masking strategy to filter out fake negatives and supplement positives by incorporating the multi-granularity information from the clustering hierarchy. In addition, a novel upward masking strategy is designed in MHCCL to remove outliers of clusters at each partition to refine prototypes, which helps speed up the hierarchical clustering process and improves the clustering quality. We conduct experimental evaluations on seven widely-used multivariate time series datasets. The results demonstrate the superiority of MHCCL over the state-of-the-art approaches for unsupervised time series representation learning. 

MHCCL: Masked Hierarchical Cluster-wise Contrastive Learning for Multivariate Time Series

Object detectors are conventionally trained by a weighted sum of classification and localization losses. Recent studies (e.g., predicting IoU with an auxiliary head, Generalized Focal Loss, Rank & Sort Loss) have shown that forcing these two loss terms to interact with each other in non-conventional ways creates a useful inductive bias and improves performance. Inspired by these works, we focus on the correlation between classification and localization and make two main contributions: (i) We provide an analysis about the effects of correlation between classification and localization tasks in object detectors.  We identify why correlation affects the performance of various NMS-based and NMS-free detectors, and we devise measures to evaluate the effect of correlation and use them to analyze common detectors. (ii) Motivated by our observations, e.g., that NMS-free detectors can also benefit from correlation, we propose Correlation Loss, a novel plug-in loss function that improves the performance of various object detectors by directly optimizing correlation coefficients: E.g., Correlation Loss on Sparse R-CNN, an NMS-free method, yields 1.6 AP gain on COCO and 1.8 AP gain on Cityscapes dataset. Our best model on Sparse R-CNN reaches 51.0 AP without test-time augmentation on COCO test-dev, reaching state-of-the-art.  Code is available at: https://github.com/fehmikahraman/CorrLoss.

Correlation Loss: Enforcing Correlation between Classification and Localization

Many applications of reinforcement learning can be formalized as goal-conditioned environments, where, in each episode, there is a "goal" that affects the rewards obtained during that episode but does not affect the dynamics. Various techniques have been proposed to improve performance in goal-conditioned environments, such as automatic curriculum generation and goal relabeling. In this work, we explore a connection between off-policy reinforcement learning in goal-conditioned settings and knowledge distillation. In particular: the current Q-value function and the target Q-value estimate are both functions of the goal, and we would like to train the Q-value function to match its target for all goals. We therefore apply Gradient-Based Attention Transfer (Zagoruyko and Komodakis 2017), a knowledge distillation technique, to the Q-function update. We empirically show that this can improve the performance of goal-conditioned off-policy reinforcement learning when the space of goals is high-dimensional. We also show that this technique can be adapted to allow for efficient learning in the case of multiple simultaneous sparse goals, where the agent can attain a reward by achieving any one of a large set of objectives, all specified at test time. Finally, to provide theoretical support, we give examples of classes of environments where (under some assumptions) standard off-policy algorithms such as DDPG require at least O(d^2) replay buffer transitions to learn an optimal policy, while our proposed technique requires only O(d) transitions, where d is the dimensionality of the goal and state space. Code and appendix are available at https://github.com/alevine0/ReenGAGE. 

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Learning Decomposed Spatial Relations for Multi-Variate Time-Series Modeling

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Solving Large-Scale Pursuit-Evasion Games Using Pre-Trained Strategies

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