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Counterfactuals are often described as &#39;retrospective,&#39; focusing on hypothetical alternatives to a realized past. This description relates to an often implicit assumption about the structure and stability of exogenous variables in the system being modeled –– an assumption that is reasonable in many settings where counterfactuals are used. In this work, we consider cases where we might reasonably make a different assumption about exogenous variables, namely, that the exogenous noise terms of each unit do exhibit some unit-specific structure and/or stability. This leads us to a different use of counterfactuals — a &#39;forward-looking&#39; rather than &#39;retrospective&#39; counterfactual. We introduce &quot;counterfactual treatment choice,&quot; a type of treatment choice problem that motivates using forward-looking counterfactuals. We then explore how mismatches between interventional versus forward-looking counterfactual approaches to treatment choice, consistent with different assumptions about exogenous noise, can lead to counterintuitive results.

AAAI 2023

Counterfactuals for the Future

treatment chioce

inequality

causal inference

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
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The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

Counterfactuals are often described as 'retrospective,' focusing on hypothetical alternatives to a realized past. This description relates to an often implicit assumption about the structure and stability of exogenous variables in the system being modeled –– an assumption that is reasonable in many settings where counterfactuals are used. In this work, we consider cases where we might reasonably make a different assumption about exogenous variables, namely, that the exogenous noise terms of each unit do exhibit some unit-specific structure and/or stability. This leads us to a different use of counterfactuals — a 'forward-looking' rather than 'retrospective' counterfactual. We introduce "counterfactual treatment choice," a type of treatment choice problem that motivates using forward-looking counterfactuals. We then explore how mismatches between interventional versus forward-looking counterfactual approaches to treatment choice, consistent with different assumptions about exogenous noise, can lead to counterintuitive results.

poster

AI systems can create, propagate, support, and automate bias in decision-making processes. To mitigate biased decisions, we both need to understand the origin of the bias and define what it means for an algorithm to make fair decisions. Most group fairness notions assess a model's equality of outcome by computing statistical metrics on the outputs. We argue that these output metrics encounter intrinsic obstacles and present a complementary approach that aligns with the increasing focus on equality of treatment. By Locating Unfairness through Canonical Inverse Design (LUCID), we generate a canonical set that shows the desired inputs for a model given a preferred output. The canonical set reveals the model's internal logic and exposes potential unethical biases by repeatedly interrogating the decision-making process. We evaluate LUCID on the UCI Adult and COMPAS data sets and find that some biases detected by a canonical set differ from those of output metrics. The results show that by shifting the focus towards equality of treatment and looking into the algorithm's internal workings, the canonical sets are a valuable addition to the toolbox of algorithmic fairness evaluation.



LUCID: Exposing Bias through Inverse Design

Access to high-quality maternal health care services is limited in Kenya, which resulted in ∼36,000 maternal and neonatal deaths in 2018. To tackle this challenge, Jacaranda Health (a non-profit organization working on maternal health in Kenya) developed PROMPTS, an SMS based tele-triage system for pregnant and puerperal women, which has more than 350,000 active users in Kenya. PROMPTS empowers pregnant women living far away from doctors and hospitals to send SMS messages to get quick answers (through human helpdesk agents) to questions about their medical symptoms and pregnancy status. Unfortunately, ∼1.1 million SMS messages are received by PROMPTS every month, which makes it challenging for helpdesk agents to ensure that these messages can be interpreted correctly and evaluated by their level of emergency to ensure timely responses and/or treatments for women in need. This paper reports on a collaborative effort with Jacaranda Health to develop a state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) framework, TRIM-AI (TRIage for Mothers using AI), which can automatically predict the emergency level (or severity of medical condition) of a pregnant mother based on the content of their SMS messages. TRIM-AI leverages recent advances in multi-lingual pre-training and continual pre-training to tackle code-mixed SMS messages (between English and Swahili), and achieves a weighted F1 score of 0.774 on real-world datasets. TRIMAI has been successfully deployed in the field since June 2022, and is being used by Jacaranda Health to prioritize the provision of services and care to pregnant women with the most critical medical conditions. Our preliminary A/B tests in the field show that TRIM-AI is ∼17% more accurate at predicting high-risk medical conditions from SMS messages sent by pregnant Kenyan mothers, which reduces the helpdesk’s workload by ∼12%.

A Continual Pre-training Approach to Tele-Triaging Pregnant Women in Kenya

Anti-money laundering (AML) systems play a critical role in safeguarding global economy. As money laundering is considered as one of the top group crimes, there is a crucial need to discover money laundering sub-network behind a particular money laundering transaction for a robust AML system. However, existing rule-based methods for money laundering sub-network discovery is heavily based on domain knowledge and may lag behind the modus operandi of launderers. Therefore, in this work, we first address the money laundering sub-network discovery problem with a neural network based approach, and propose an AML framework AMAP equipped with an adaptive sub-network proposer. In particular, we design an adaptive sub-network proposer guided by a supervised contrastive loss to discriminate money laundering transactions from massive benign transactions. We conduct extensive experiments on real-word datasets in AliPay of Ant Group. The result demonstrates the effectiveness of our AMAP in both money laundering transaction detection and money laundering sub-network discovering. The learned framework which yields money laundering sub-network from massive transaction network leads to a more comprehensive risk coverage and a deeper insight to money laundering strategies.

Towards Learning to Discover Money Laundering Sub-network in Massive Transaction Network

Data-driven predictive solutions predominant in commercial applications tend to suffer from biases and stereotypes, which raises equity concerns. Prediction models may discover, use, or amplify spurious correlations based on gender or other protected personal characteristics, thus discriminating against marginalized groups. Mitigating gender bias has become an important research focus in natural language processing (NLP) and is an area where annotated corpora are available. Data augmentation reduces gender bias by adding counterfactual examples to the training dataset. In this work, we show that some of the examples in the augmented dataset can be not important or even harmful to fairness. We hence propose a general method for pruning both the factual and counterfactual examples to maximize the model’s fairness as measured by the demographic parity, equality of opportunity, and equality of odds. The fairness achieved by our method surpasses that of data augmentation on three text classification datasets, using no more than half of the examples in the augmented dataset. Our experiments are conducted using models of varying sizes and pre-training settings.

Deep Learning on a Healthy Data Diet: Finding Important Examples for Fairness

The desired output for most real-world tasks using machine learning (ML) and remote sensing data is a set of dense predictions that form a predicted map for a geographic region. However, most prior work involving ML and remote sensing follows the traditional practice of reporting metrics on a set of independent, geographically-sparse samples and does not perform dense predictions. To reduce the labor of producing dense prediction maps, we present OpenMapFlow---an open-source python library for rapid map creation with ML and remote sensing data. OpenMapFlow provides 1) a data processing pipeline for users to create labeled datasets for any region, 2) code to train state-of-the-art deep learning models on custom or existing datasets, and 3) a cloud-based architecture to deploy models for efficient map prediction. We demonstrate the benefits of OpenMapFlow through experiments on three binary classification tasks: cropland, crop type (maize), and building mapping. We show that OpenMapFlow drastically reduces the time required for dense prediction compared to traditional workflows. We hope this library will stimulate novel research in areas such as domain shift, unsupervised learning, and societally-relevant applications and lessen the barrier to adopting research methods for real-world tasks.

OpenMapFlow: A Library for Rapid Map Creation with Machine Learning and Remote Sensing Data

Automatic material discovery with desired properties is a fundamental challenge for material sciences. Considerable attention has recently been devoted to generating stable crystal structures. While existing work has shown impressive success on supervised tasks such as property prediction, the progress on unsupervised tasks such as material generation is still hampered by the limited extent to which the equivalent geometric representations of the same crystal are considered. To address this challenge, we propose EPGNN a periodic equivariant message-passing neural network that learns crystal lattice deformation in an unsupervised fashion. Our model equivalently acts on lattice according to the deformation action that must be performed, making it suitable for crystal generation, relaxation and optimisation. We present experimental evaluations that demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. 

Equivariant Message Passing Neural Network for Crystal Material Discovery

In contrast to the rapid digitalization of several industries, agriculture suffers from low adoption of smart farming tools. Even though recent advancements in AI-driven digital agriculture can offer high-performing predictive functionalities, they lack tangible quantitative evidence on their benefits to the farmers. Field experiments can derive such evidence, but are often costly, time consuming and hence limited in scope and scale of application. To this end, we propose an observational causal inference framework for the empirical evaluation of the impact of digital tools on target farm performance indicators (e.g., yield in this case). This way, we can increase farmers' trust via enhancing the transparency of the digital agriculture market, and in turn accelerate the adoption of technologies that aim to secure farmer income resilience and global agricultural sustainability against a changing climate. As a case study, we designed and implemented a recommendation system for the optimal sowing time of cotton based on numerical weather predictions, which was used by a farmers' cooperative during the growing season of 2021. We then leverage agricultural knowledge, collected yield data, and environmental information to develop a causal graph of the farm system. Using the back-door criterion, we identify the impact of sowing recommendations on the yield and subsequently estimate it using linear regression, matching, inverse propensity score weighting and meta-learners. The results revealed that a field sown according to our recommendations exhibited a statistically significant yield increase that ranged from 12% to 17%, depending on the method. The effect estimates were robust, as indicated by the agreement among the estimation methods and four successful refutation tests. We argue that this approach can be implemented for decision support systems of other fields, extending their evaluation beyond a performance assessment of internal functionalities.

Evaluating Digital Agriculture Recommendations with Causal Inference

Machine unlearning has become an important area of research due to an increasing need for machine learning (ML) applications to comply with the emerging data privacy regulations. It facilitates the provision for removal of certain set or class of data from an already trained ML model without requiring retraining from scratch. Recently, several efforts have been put in to make unlearning to be effective and efficient. We propose a novel machine unlearning method by exploring the utility of competent and incompetent teachers in a student-teacher framework to induce forgetfulness. The knowledge from the competent and incompetent teachers is selectively transferred to the student to obtain a model that doesn't contain any information about the forget data. We experimentally show that this method generalizes well, is fast and effective. Furthermore, we introduce the zero retrain forgetting (ZRF) metric to evaluate any unlearning method. Unlike the existing unlearning metrics, the ZRF score does not depend on the availability of the expensive retrained model. This makes it useful for analysis of the unlearned model after deployment as well. We present results of experiments conducted for random subset forgetting and class forgetting on various deep networks and across different application domains. Code is at: https://github.com/vikram2000b/bad-teaching- unlearning

Can Bad Teaching Induce Forgetting? Unlearning in Deep Networks using an Incompetent Teacher

Discriminability and transferability are two goals of feature learning for domain adaptation, as we aim to find the transferable features from the source domain that are helpful for discriminating the class label in the target domain. Modern domain adaptation approaches optimize discriminability and transferability by adopting two separate modules for the two goals upon a feature extractor, but lack fully exploiting their relationship. In this paper, we argue that by letting the discriminative module and transfer module help each other, better domain adaptation can be achieved. We propose Cooperative and Adversarial LEarning (CALE) to combine the optimization of discriminability and transferability into a whole, provide one solution for making the discriminative module and transfer module guide each other. Specifically, CALE generates cooperative (easy) examples and adversarial (hard) examples with both discriminative module and transfer module. While the easy examples that contain the module knowledge can be used to enhance each other, the hard ones are used to enhance the robustness of the corresponding goal. Experimental results show the effectiveness of CALE for unifying the learning of discriminability and transferability, as well as its superior performance.

Cooperative and Adversarial Learning: Co-Enhancing Discriminability and Transferability in Domain Adaptation

Despite that convolution neural networks (CNN) have recently demonstrated high-quality reconstruction for video super-resolution (VSR), efficiently training competitive VSR models remains a challenging problem. It usually takes an order of magnitude more time than training their counterpart image models, leading to long research cycles. Existing VSR methods typically train models with fixed spatial and temporal sizes from beginning to end. The fixed sizes are usually set to large values for good performance, resulting to slow training. However, is such a rigid training strategy necessary for VSR? In this work, we show that it is possible to gradually train video models from small to large spatial/temporal sizes, \ie, in an easy-to-hard manner. In particular, the whole training is divided into several stages and the earlier stage has smaller training spatial shape. Inside each stage, the temporal size also varies from short to long while the spatial size remains unchanged. Training is accelerated by such a multigrid training strategy, as most of computation is performed on smaller spatial and shorter temporal shapes. For further acceleration with GPU parallelization, we also investigate the large minibatch training without the loss in accuracy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method is capable of largely speeding up training (up to $6.2\times$ speedup in wall-clock training time) without performance drop for various VSR models.

Counterfactuals for the Future

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