United States

Reasoning about the effect of interventions and counterfactuals is a fundamental task found throughout the data sciences. A collection of principles, algorithms, and tools has been developed for performing such tasks in the last decades (Pearl 2000).  One of the pervasive requirements found throughout this literature is the articulation of assumptions, which commonly appear in the form of causal diagrams. Despite the power of this approach, there are significant settings where the knowledge necessary to specify a causal diagram over all variables is not  available, particularly in complex, high-dimensional domains. In this paper, we introduce  a new graphical modeling tool called \textit{cluster DAGs} (for short, C-DAGs) that allows for the partial specification of relationships among variables based on limited prior knowledge, alleviating the stringent requirement of specifying a full causal diagram. A C-DAG specifies relationships between clusters of variables, while the relationships between the variables within a cluster are left unspecified, and can be seen as a graphical representation of an equivalence class of causal diagrams that share the relationships among the clusters. We develop the foundations and  machinery for valid inferences over  C-DAGs about the clusters of variables  at each layer of Pearl&#39;s Causal Hierarchy (Pearl and Mackenzie 2018; Bareinboim et al. 2020) - $\mathcal{L}_1$ (probabilistic), $\mathcal{L}_2$ (interventional), and $\mathcal{L}_3$ (counterfactual).  In particular, we prove the soundness and completeness of d-separation for probabilistic inference in C-DAGs.  Further, we demonstrate  the validity of Pearl&#39;s do-calculus rules over C-DAGs and  show that the standard ID identification algorithm is sound and complete to systematically compute causal effects from observational data given a C-DAG. Finally, we show that C-DAGs are valid for performing counterfactual inferences about clusters of variables.


AAAI 2023

Causal Effect Identification in Cluster DAGs

ru: graphical model

ru: causality

ru: uncertainty representations

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

The 37th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2021) is held fully online. We have an exciting program consisting of keynote talks by [Susan Murphy](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=A), [Eric Horvitz](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=B), [Lenka Zdeborová](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=C), [Judea Pearl](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=D) and [Ankur Moitra](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=E), a town hall meeting, peer-reviewed papers, and three workshops. The main conference is single-track and each paper is show-cased with a live component (either a live discussion and Q&A, or a live lightning talk). All papers are also featured in video presentations and in poster sessions in gather.town. The three parallel workshops on Friday allow for smaller meetings on current topics.

The walkthrough video below shows how you can navigate this site and use the different possibilities for interaction: UAIsland2021 on gather.town for posters and social interactions, the mementor platform for virtual mentoring sessions, and the chat and Q&A systems for discussions about talks and posters.

Have a great UAI 2021! 
 
 Cassio de Campos and Marloes Maathuis
 UAI 2021 Program Chairs
 uai2021programchairs@gmail.com

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https://auai.org/uai2021/registration

UAI 2021

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

Reasoning about the effect of interventions and counterfactuals is a fundamental task found throughout the data sciences. A collection of principles, algorithms, and tools has been developed for performing such tasks in the last decades (Pearl 2000).  One of the pervasive requirements found throughout this literature is the articulation of assumptions, which commonly appear in the form of causal diagrams. Despite the power of this approach, there are significant settings where the knowledge necessary to specify a causal diagram over all variables is not  available, particularly in complex, high-dimensional domains. In this paper, we introduce  a new graphical modeling tool called \textit{cluster DAGs} (for short, C-DAGs) that allows for the partial specification of relationships among variables based on limited prior knowledge, alleviating the stringent requirement of specifying a full causal diagram. A C-DAG specifies relationships between clusters of variables, while the relationships between the variables within a cluster are left unspecified, and can be seen as a graphical representation of an equivalence class of causal diagrams that share the relationships among the clusters. We develop the foundations and  machinery for valid inferences over  C-DAGs about the clusters of variables  at each layer of Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (Pearl and Mackenzie 2018; Bareinboim et al. 2020) - $\mathcal{L}_1$ (probabilistic), $\mathcal{L}_2$ (interventional), and $\mathcal{L}_3$ (counterfactual).  In particular, we prove the soundness and completeness of d-separation for probabilistic inference in C-DAGs.  Further, we demonstrate  the validity of Pearl's do-calculus rules over C-DAGs and  show that the standard ID identification algorithm is sound and complete to systematically compute causal effects from observational data given a C-DAG. Finally, we show that C-DAGs are valid for performing counterfactual inferences about clusters of variables.


poster

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
AAAI is providing you with a conference planner, which you can use to help organize your itinerary of activities. This includes talks to attend in person, talks to attend remotely, breaks with colleagues and your site seeing activities. To access this conference planner, please go to [https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io](https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io).

In order to access this site, you need to register. If you haven't already, please register [here](https://aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI-23/registration/).


The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

Digital advertising constitutes one of the main revenue sources for online platforms. In recent years, some advertisers tend to adopt auto-bidding tools to facilitate advertising performance optimization, making the classical \emph{utility maximizer} model in auction theory not fit well. Some recent studies proposed a new model, called \emph{value maximizer}, for auto-bidding advertisers with return-on-investment (ROI) constraints. However, the model of either utility maximizer or value maximizer could only characterize partial advertisers in real-world advertising platforms. In a mixed environment where utility maximizers and value maximizers coexist, the truthful ad auction design would be challenging since bidders could manipulate both their values and affiliated classes, leading to a multi-parameter mechanism design problem. In this work, we address this issue by proposing a payment rule which combines the corresponding ones in classical VCG and GSP mechanisms in a novel way. Based on this payment rule, we propose a truthful auction mechanism with an approximation ratio of $2$ on social welfare, which is close to the lower bound of at least $\frac{5}{4}$ that we also prove. The designed auction mechanism is a generalization of VCG for utility maximizers and GSP for value maximizers. 

Utility Maximizer or Value Maximizer: Mechanism Design for Mixed Bidders in Online Advertising

In the past few years, numerous multi-view graph clustering algorithms have been proposed to enhance the clustering performance by exploring information from multiple views. Despite the superior performance, the high time and space expenditures limit their scalability. Accordingly, anchor graph learning has been introduced to alleviate the computational complexity. However, existing approaches can be further improved by the following considerations: (i) Existing anchor-based methods share the same number of anchors across views. This strategy violates the diversity and flexibility of multi-view data distribution. (ii) Searching for the optimal anchor number within hyper-parameters takes much extra tuning time, which makes existing methods impractical. (iii) How to flexibly fuse multi-view anchor graphs of diverse sizes has not been well explored in the existing literature. To address the above issues, we propose a novel anchor-based method termed Flexible and Diverse Anchor Graph Fusion for Scalable Multi-view Clustering (FDAGF) in this paper. Instead of manually tuning optimal anchor with massive hyper-parameters, we propose to optimize the contribution weights of a group of pre-defined anchor numbers to avoid extra time expenditure among views. Most importantly, we propose a novel hybrid fusion strategy for multi-size anchor graphs with theoretical proof, which allows flexible and diverse anchor graph fusion. Then, an efficient linear optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the resultant problem. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed framework.

Let the data choose: Flexible and Diverse Anchor Graph Fusion for Scalable Multi-view Clustering

Multi-agent path planning (MAPP) is the problem of planning collision-free trajectories from start to goal locations for a team of agents. This work explores a relatively unexplored setting of MAPP where streams of agents have to go through the starts and goals with high throughput. We tackle this problem by formulating a new variant of MAPP called periodic MAPP in which the timing of agent appearances is periodic. The objective with periodic MAPP is to find a periodic plan, a set of collision-free trajectories that the agent streams can use repeatedly over periods, with periods that are as small as possible. To meet this objective, we propose a solution method that is based on constraint relaxation and optimization. We show that the periodic plans once found can be used for a more practical case in which agents in a stream can appear at random times. We confirm the effectiveness of our method compared with baseline methods in terms of throughput in several scenarios that abstract autonomous intersection management tasks.

Periodic Multi-Agent Path Planning

In recent years, skeleton-based action recognition has achieved remarkable performance in understanding human motion from sequences of skeleton data, which is an important medium for synthesizing realistic human movement in various applications. However, existing methods assume that each action clip is manually trimmed to contain one specific action, which requires a significant amount of effort for annotation. To solve this problem, we consider a novel problem of skeleton-based weakly-supervised temporal action localization (S-WTAL), where we need to recognize and localize human action segments in untrimmed skeleton videos given only the video-level labels. Although this task is challenging due to the sparsity of skeleton data and the lack of contextual clues from interaction with other objects and the environment, we present a frame-level label refinement framework based on a spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) to overcome these difficulties. We use multiple instance learning (MIL) with video-level labels to generate the frame-level predictions. Inspired by advances in handling the noisy label problem, we introduce a label cleaning strategy of the frame-level pseudo labels to guide the learning process. The network parameters and the frame-level predictions are alternately updated to obtain the final results. We extensively evaluate the effectiveness of our learning approach on skeleton-based action recognition benchmarks. The state-of-the-art experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can recognize and localize action segments of the skeleton data.

Frame-Level Label Refinement for Skeleton-Based Weakly-Supervised Action Recognition

Data imbalance, also known as the long-tailed distribution of data, is an important challenge for data-driven models. In the Word Sense Disambiguation (WSD) task, the long-tail phenomenon of word sense distribution is more significant, making it difficult to effectively represent and identify Long-Tail Senses (LTSs). Therefore exploring representation methods that do not rely heavily on the training sample size is an important way to combat LTSs. Considering that many new states, that is, superposition states, can be constructed from several known states in quantum mechanics, the concept of superposition states provides the possibility to obtain more accurate representations from inferior representations learned from a small sample size. In this article, inspired by quantum superposition states, a representation method in Hilbert space is proposed to reduce the dependence on large sample sizes and thus combat LTSs. We theoretically prove the correctness of the method, and verify its effectiveness under the standard WSD evaluation framework and obtain state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, we also test on the constructed LTS and latest cross-lingual datasets, and achieve promising results.

Quantum-inspired Representation for Long-tail Senses of Word Sense Disambiguation

It is an open question what semantic representations transformer-based language models can encode and whether they have access to more abstract aspects of semantic meaning. Here, we propose a diagnostic dataset to investigate how well language models understand the degree semantics of adjectives. In the dataset, referred as the Adjective Scale Probe (ASP), we semi-automatically generate 8 tests of Natural Language Inference (NLI) questions to test 8 key capabilities of adjective interpretation. We apply the ASP dataset to evaluate the performance of 3 language models, i.e., BERT, DeBERTa, and T0. It is found that language models perform below the majority baseline for most tests of the ASP, even when the models have been fine-tuned to achieve high performance on the large-scale MNLI dataset. But after we fine-tune the pre-trained models on a subset of the ASP, DeBERTa can achieve high performance on the untrained adjectives and untrained tests, suggesting that DeBERTa may have captured degree semantic information of adjectives through pre-training but it needs specific training data to learn how to apply such information to the current tasks. In sum, the ASP provides an easy-to-use method to test fine-grained formal semantic properties of adjectives, and reveals language models' abilities to access formal semantic information.

Adjective Scale Probe: Can Language Models Encode Formal Semantics Information?

Clustered federated learning (FL) has been shown to produce promising results by grouping clients into clusters.
This is especially effective in scenarios where separate groups of clients have significant differences in the distributions of their local data. Existing clustered FL algorithms are essentially trying to group together clients with similar distributions so that clients in the same cluster can leverage each other's data to better perform federated learning. However, prior clustered FL algorithms attempt to learn these distribution similarities indirectly during training, which can be quite time consuming as many rounds of federated learning may be required until the formation of clusters is stabilized. In this paper, we propose a new approach to federated learning that directly aims to efficiently identify distribution similarities among clients by analyzing the principal angles between the client data subspaces. Each client applies a truncated singular value decomposition (SVD) step on its local data in a single-shot manner to derive a small set of principal vectors, which provides a signature that succinctly captures the main characteristics of the underlying distribution.
This small set of principal vectors is provided to the server so that the server can directly identify distribution similarities among the clients to form clusters.
This is achieved by comparing the similarities of the principal angles between the client data subspaces spanned by those principal vectors. The approach provides a simple, yet effective clustered FL framework that addresses a broad range of data heterogeneity issues beyond simpler forms of Non-IIDness like label skews. Our clustered FL approach also enables convergence guarantees for non-convex objectives.

Efficient Distribution Similarity Identification in Clustered Federated Learning via Principal Angles Between Client Data Subspaces

Stochastic gradient descent  algorithm  (SGD)  has been popular in various fields of artificial intelligence as well as a prototype of online learning algorithms. This article proposes a novel and general framework of one-sided testing for streaming data based on SGD, which  determines whether the unknown parameter is greater than a certain positive constant. We construct the online-updated test statistic sequentially by integrating the selected batch-specific estimator or its opposite, which is referred to opposite online learning. The batch-specific online estimators are chosen strategically according to the proposed sequential tactics designed by two-armed bandit process. Theoretical results prove the advantage of the strategy ensuring the distribution of test statistic to be optimal under the null hypothesis and also supply the theoretical evidence of power enhancement compared with classical test statistic. In application, the proposed method is appealing for statistical inference of one-sided testing because it is scalable for any model. Finally, the superior finite-sample performance is evaluated by simulation studies.

Opposite Online Learning via Sequentially Integrated Stochastic Gradient Descent Estimators

Tissue segmentation is a critical task in computational pathology due to its desirable ability to indicate the prognosis of cancer patients. Currently, numerous studies attempt to use image-level labels to achieve pixel-level segmentation to reduce the need for fine annotations. However, most of these methods are based on class activation map, which suffers from inaccurate segmentation boundaries. To address this problem, we propose a novel weakly-supervised tissue segmentation framework named PistoSeg, which is implemented under a fully-supervised manner by transferring tissue category labels to pixel-level masks. Firstly, a dataset synthesis method is proposed based on Mosaic transformation to generate synthesized images with pixel-level masks. Next, considering the difference between synthesized and real images, this paper devises an attention-based feature consistency, which directs the training process of a proposed pseudo-mask refining module. Finally, the refined pseudo-masks are used to train a precise segmentation model for testing. Experiments based on WSSS4LUAD and BCSS-WSSS validate that PistoSeg outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. The code is released at https://github.com/Vison307/PistoSeg. 

Weakly-Supervised Semantic Segmentation for Histopathology Images Based on Dataset Synthesis and Feature Consistency Constraint

In 2020, maternal mortality in India was estimated to be as high as 130 deaths per 100K live births, nearly twice the UN's target. To improve health outcomes, the non-profit ARMMAN sends automated voice messages to expecting and new mothers across India. However, 38% of mothers stop listening to these calls, missing critical preventative care information. To improve engagement, ARMMAN employs health workers to intervene by making service calls, but workers can only call a fraction of the 100K enrolled mothers. Partnering with ARMMAN, we model the problem of allocating limited interventions across mothers as a restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB), where the realities of large scale and model uncertainty present key new technical challenges. We address these with GROUPS, a double oracle--based algorithm for robust planning in RMABs with scalable grouped arms. Robustness over grouped arms requires several methodological advances. First, to adversarially select stochastic group dynamics, we develop a new method to optimize Whittle indices over transition probability intervals. Second, to learn group-level RMAB policy best responses to these adversarial environments, we introduce a weighted index heuristic. Third, we prove a key theoretical result that planning over grouped arms achieves the same minimax regret--optimal strategy as planning over individual arms, under a technical condition. Finally, using real-world data from ARMMAN, we show that GROUPS produces robust policies that reduce minimax regret by up to 50%, halving the number of preventable missed voice messages to connect more mothers with life-saving maternal health information.

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