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In the logistics network, accurately estimating packages&#39; Travel Time Distribution (TTD) given the routes greatly benefits both consumers and platforms. Although recent works perform well in predicting an expected time or a time distribution in a road network, they could not be well applied to estimate TTD in logistics networks. Because TTD prediction in the logistics network requires modeling packages&#39; multimodal TTD (MTTD, i.e., there can be more than one likely output with a given input) while leveraging the complex correlations in the logistics network. To this end, this work opens appealing research opportunities in studying MTTD learning conditioned on graph-structure data by investigating packages&#39; travel time distribution in the logistics network. We propose a Graph-based Mixture Density Network, named GMDNet, which takes the benefits of both graph neural network and mixture density network for estimating MTTD conditioned on graph-structure data (i.e., the logistics network). Furthermore, we adopt the Expectation-Maximization (EM) framework in the training process to guarantee local convergence and thus obtain more stable results than gradient descent. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model.

AAAI 2023

GMDNet: A Graph-based Mixture Density Network for Estimating Packages&#39; Multimodal Travel Time Distribution

app: transportation

and temporal reasoning

krr: geometric

temporal or spatio-temporal data

dmkm: mining of spatial

spatial

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
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The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

In the logistics network, accurately estimating packages' Travel Time Distribution (TTD) given the routes greatly benefits both consumers and platforms. Although recent works perform well in predicting an expected time or a time distribution in a road network, they could not be well applied to estimate TTD in logistics networks. Because TTD prediction in the logistics network requires modeling packages' multimodal TTD (MTTD, i.e., there can be more than one likely output with a given input) while leveraging the complex correlations in the logistics network. To this end, this work opens appealing research opportunities in studying MTTD learning conditioned on graph-structure data by investigating packages' travel time distribution in the logistics network. We propose a Graph-based Mixture Density Network, named GMDNet, which takes the benefits of both graph neural network and mixture density network for estimating MTTD conditioned on graph-structure data (i.e., the logistics network). Furthermore, we adopt the Expectation-Maximization (EM) framework in the training process to guarantee local convergence and thus obtain more stable results than gradient descent. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model.

GMDNet: A Graph-based Mixture Density Network for Estimating Packages' Multimodal Travel Time Distribution

poster

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has empirically shown its data representation learnability in many downstream tasks. There are only a few theoretical works on data representation learnability, and many of those focus on final data representation, treating the nonlinear neural network as a ``black box". However, the accurate learning results of neural networks are crucial for describing the data distribution features learned by SSL models. Our paper is the first to analyze the learning results of the nonlinear SSL model accurately. We consider a toy data distribution that contains two features: the label-related feature and the hidden feature. Unlike previous linear setting work that depends on closed-form solutions, we use the gradient descent algorithm to train a 1-layer nonlinear SSL model with a certain initialization region and prove that the model converges to a local minimum. Furthermore, different from the complex iterative analysis, we propose a new analysis process which uses the \textbf{exact version of Inverse Function Theorem} to accurately describe the features learned by the local minimum. With this local minimum, we prove that the nonlinear SSL model can capture the label-related feature and hidden feature at the same time. In contrast, the nonlinear supervised learning (SL) model can only learn the label-related feature. We also present the learning processes and results of the nonlinear SSL and SL model via simulation experiments. 

Understanding Representation Learnability of Nonlinear Self-Supervised Learning

Script event prediction aims to predict the subsequent event given the context. This requires the capability to infer the correlations between events. Recent works have attempted to improve event correlation reasoning by using pretrained language models and incorporating external knowledge~(e.g., discourse relations). Though promising results have been achieved, some challenges still remain. First, the pretrained language models adopted by current works ignore event-level knowledge, resulting in an inability to capture the correlations between events well. Second, modeling correlations between events with discourse relations is limited because it can only capture explicit correlations between events with discourse markers, and cannot capture many implicit correlations. To this end, we propose a novel generative approach for this task, in which a pretrained language model is fine-tuned with an event-centric pretraining objective and predicts the next event within a generative paradigm. Specifically, we first introduce a novel event-level blank infilling strategy as the learning objective to inject event-level knowledge into the pretrained language model, and then design a likelihood-based contrastive loss for fine-tuning the generative model. Instead of using an additional prediction layer, we perform prediction by using sequence likelihoods generated by the generative model. Our approach models correlations between events in a soft way without any external knowledge. The likelihood-based prediction eliminates the need to use additional networks to make predictions and is somewhat interpretable since it scores each word in the event. Experimental results on the multi-choice narrative cloze~(MCNC) task demonstrate that our approach achieves better results than other state-of-the-art baselines. Our code will be available at \url{https://github.com/zhufq00/mcnc}.

A Generative Approach for Script Event Prediction via Contrastive Fine-tuning

In this paper, we address the problem of video temporal sentence localization, which aims to localize a target moment from videos according to a given language query. We observe that existing models suffer from a sheer performance drop when dealing with simple phrases contained in the sentence. It reveals the limitation that existing models only capture the annotation bias of the datasets but lack sufficient understanding of the semantic phrases in the query. To address this problem, we propose a phrase-level Temporal Relationship Mining (TRM) framework employing the temporal relationship relevant to the phrase and the whole sentence to have a better understanding of each semantic entity in the sentence. Specifically, we use the phrase-level predictions to refine the sentence-level prediction, and use Multiple Instance Learning to improve the quality of phrase-level predictions. We also exploit the consistency and exclusiveness constraints of phrase-level and sentence-level predictions to regularize the training process, thus alleviating the ambiguity of each phrase prediction. The proposed approach sheds light on how machines can understand detailed phrases in a sentence and their compositions in their generality rather than learning the annotation biases. Experiments on the ActivityNet Captions and Charades-STA datasets show the effectiveness of our method on both phrase and sentence temporal localization and enable better model interpretability and generalization when dealing with unseen compositions of seen concepts. Code can be found at https://github.com/minghangz/TRM.

Phrase-level Temporal Relationship Mining for Temporal Sentence Localization

Although great progress has been made for Machine Reading Comprehension (MRC) in English, scaling out to a large number of languages remains a huge challenge due to the lack of large amounts of annotated training data in non-English languages. To address this challenge, some recent efforts of cross-lingual MRC employ machine translation to transfer knowledge from English to other languages, through either explicit alignment or implicit attention. For effective knowledge transition, it is beneficial to leverage both semantic and syntactic information. However, the existing methods fail to explicitly incorporate syntax information in model learning. Consequently, the models are not robust to errors in alignment and noises in attention. In this work, we propose a novel approach, named GraFusionMRC, which jointly models the cross-lingual alignment information and the mono-lingual syntax information using a graph. We develop a series of algorithms, including graph construction, learning, and pre-training. The experiments on two benchmark datasets for cross-lingual MRC show that our approach outperforms all strong baselines, which verifies the effectiveness of syntax information for cross-lingual MRC.

A Graph Fusion Approach for Cross-Lingual Machine Reading Comprehension

Recent NLP literature has seen growing interest in improving model interpretability. Along this direction, we propose a trainable neural network layer that learns a global interaction graph between words and then selects more informative words using the learned word interactions. Our layer, we call WIGRAPH, can plug into any neural network-based NLP text classifiers right after its word embedding layer. Across multiple SOTA NLP models and various NLP datasets, we demonstrate that adding the WIGRAPH layer substantially improves NLP models' interpretability and enhances models' prediction performance at the same time.

Improving Interpretability via Explicit Word Interaction Graph Layer

Entropy regularization is known to improve exploration in sequential decision-making problems. We show that this same mechanism can also lead to nearly unbiased and lower-variance estimates of the mean reward in the optimize-and-estimate structured bandit setting. Mean reward estimation (i.e., population estimation) tasks have recently been shown to be essential for public policy settings where legal constraints often require precise estimates of population metrics.
We show that leveraging entropy and KL divergence can yield a better trade-off between reward and estimator variance than existing baselines, all while remaining nearly unbiased. These properties of entropy regularization illustrate an exciting potential for bringing together the optimal exploration and estimation literature. 


Entropy Regularization for Population Estimation

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are highly effective on a variety of graph-related tasks; however, they lack interpretability and transparency. Current explainability approaches are typically local and treat GNNs as black-boxes. They do not look inside the model, inhibiting human trust in the model and explanations. Motivated by the ability of neurons to detect high-level semantic concepts in vision models, we perform a novel analysis on the behaviour of individual GNN neurons to answer questions about GNN interpretability. We propose a novel approach for producing global explanations for GNNs using neuron-level concepts to enable practitioners to have a high-level view of the model. Specifically, (i) to the best of our knowledge, this is the first work which shows that GNN neurons act as concept detectors and have strong alignment with concepts formulated as logical compositions of node degree and neighbourhood properties; (ii) we quantitatively assess the importance of detected concepts, and identify a trade-off between training duration and neuron-level interpretability; (iii) we demonstrate that our global explainability approach has advantages over the current state-of-the-art -- we can disentangle the explanation into individual interpretable concepts backed by logical descriptions, which reduces potential for bias and improves user-friendliness.

Global Concept-Based Interpretability for Graph Neural Networks via Neuron Analysis

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has the potential to be used for synthesizing feedback controllers (agents) for various complex systems with unknown dynamics. These systems are expected to satisfy diverse safety and liveness properties best captured using temporal logic. In RL, the reward function plays a crucial role in specifying the desired behaviour of these agents. However, the problem of designing the reward function for an RL agent to satisfy complex temporal logic specifications has received limited attention in the literature. To address this, we provide a systematic way of generating rewards in real-time by using the quantitative semantics of Signal Temporal Logic (STL), a widely used temporal logic to specify the behaviour of cyber-physical systems. We propose a new quantitative semantics for STL having several desirable properties, making it suitable for reward generation. We evaluate our STL-based reinforcement learning mechanism on several complex continuous control benchmarks and compare our STL semantics with those available in the literature in terms of their efficacy in synthesizing the controller agent. Experimental results establish our new semantics to be the most suitable for synthesizing feedback controllers for complex continuous dynamical systems through reinforcement learning.

STL-Based Synthesis of Feedback Controllers Using Reinforcement Learning

Real-world graphs like social networks are often evolutionary over time, whose observations at different timestamps lead to graph sequences. 
Modeling such evolutionary graphs is important for many applications, but solving this problem often requires the correspondence between the graphs at different timestamps, which may leak private node information, e.g., the temporal behavior patterns of the nodes.  
We proposed a Gromov-Wasserstein Autoregressive (GWAR) model to capture the generative mechanisms of evolutionary graphs, which does not require the correspondence information and thus preserves the privacy of the graphs' nodes. 
This model consists of two autoregressions, predicting the number of nodes and the probabilities of nodes and edges, respectively. 
The model takes observed graphs as its input and predicts future graphs via solving a joint graph alignment and merging task.
This task leads to a fused Gromov-Wasserstein (FGW) barycenter problem, in which we approximate the alignment of the graphs based on a novel inductive fused Gromov-Wasserstein (IFGW) distance. 
The IFGW distance is parameterized by neural networks and can be learned under mild assumptions, and thus, we can infer the FGW barycenters without iterative optimization and predict future graphs efficiently.
Experiments show that our GWAR achieves encouraging performance on modeling evolutionary graphs in the privacy-preserving scenarios.

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