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Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP guarantees that the error rate is at most $\varepsilon$, irrespective of whether the underlying  model is misspecified. However, the prohibitive computational costs of ``full&#39;&#39; CP led researchers to design scalable alternatives, which alas do not attain the same guarantees or statistical power of full CP. In this paper, we use influence functions to efficiently approximate full CP. We prove that our method is a consistent approximation of full CP, and empirically show that the approximation error becomes smaller as the training set increases; e.g., for $10^{3}$ training points the two methods output p-values that are $&lt;10^{-3}$ apart: a negligible error for any practical application. Our methods enable scaling full CP to large real-world datasets. We compare our full CP approximation (ACP) to mainstream CP alternatives, and observe that our method is computationally competitive whilst enjoying the statistical predictive power of full CP.

AAAI 2023

Approximating Full Conformal Prediction at Scale via Influence Functions

influence functions

calibration

conformal prediction

uncertainty quantification

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

The 37th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2021) is held fully online. We have an exciting program consisting of keynote talks by [Susan Murphy](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=A), [Eric Horvitz](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=B), [Lenka Zdeborová](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=C), [Judea Pearl](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=D) and [Ankur Moitra](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=E), a town hall meeting, peer-reviewed papers, and three workshops. The main conference is single-track and each paper is show-cased with a live component (either a live discussion and Q&A, or a live lightning talk). All papers are also featured in video presentations and in poster sessions in gather.town. The three parallel workshops on Friday allow for smaller meetings on current topics.

The walkthrough video below shows how you can navigate this site and use the different possibilities for interaction: UAIsland2021 on gather.town for posters and social interactions, the mementor platform for virtual mentoring sessions, and the chat and Q&A systems for discussions about talks and posters.

Have a great UAI 2021! 
 
 Cassio de Campos and Marloes Maathuis
 UAI 2021 Program Chairs
 uai2021programchairs@gmail.com

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A ticket is required to access this conference. Please use the provided link to register for the event.

https://auai.org/uai2021/registration

UAI 2021

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP guarantees that the error rate is at most $\varepsilon$, irrespective of whether the underlying model is misspecified. However, the prohibitive computational costs of ``full'' CP led researchers to design scalable alternatives, which alas do not attain the same guarantees or statistical power of full CP. In this paper, we use influence functions to efficiently approximate full CP. We prove that our method is a consistent approximation of full CP, and empirically show that the approximation error becomes smaller as the training set increases; e.g., for $10^{3}$ training points the two methods output p-values that are $<10^{-3}$ apart: a negligible error for any practical application. Our methods enable scaling full CP to large real-world datasets. We compare our full CP approximation (ACP) to mainstream CP alternatives, and observe that our method is computationally competitive whilst enjoying the statistical predictive power of full CP.

poster

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-23 is the Thirty-Seventh AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. The theme of this conference is to create collaborative bridges within and beyond AI. Like previous AAAI conferences, AAAI-23 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and two new activities: a Bridge Program and a Lab Program. Many of these activities are tailored to the theme of bridges and all are selected according to the highest standards, with additional programs for students and young researchers. 
AAAI is providing you with a conference planner, which you can use to help organize your itinerary of activities. This includes talks to attend in person, talks to attend remotely, breaks with colleagues and your site seeing activities. To access this conference planner, please go to [https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io](https://aaai-2023.takemobi.io).

In order to access this site, you need to register. If you haven't already, please register [here](https://aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI-23/registration/).


The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines.

We study the problem of training a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent that is collaborative with humans without using human data. Although such agents can be obtained through self-play training, they can suffer significantly from the distributional shift when paired with unencountered partners, such as humans. In this paper, we propose Maximum Entropy Population-based training (MEP) to mitigate such distributional shift. In MEP, agents in the population are trained with our derived Population Entropy bonus to promote the pairwise diversity between agents and the individual diversity of agents themselves. After obtaining this diversified population, a common best agent is trained by paring with agents in this population via prioritized sampling, where the prioritization is dynamically adjusted based on the training progress. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method MEP, with comparison to Self-Play PPO (SP), Population-Based Training (PBT), Trajectory Diversity (TrajeDi), and Fictitious Co-Play (FCP) in both matrix game and Overcooked game environments, with partners being human proxy models and real humans.

Maximum Entropy Population-Based Training for Zero-Shot Human-AI Coordination

Stochastic Boolean satisfiability (SSAT) is a formalism allowing decision-making for optimization under quantitative constraints. Although SSAT solvers are under active development, existing solvers do not provide Skolem-function witnesses, which are crucial for practical applications. In this work, we develop a new witness-generating SSAT solver, SharpSSAT, which integrates techniques, including component caching, clause learning, and pure literal detection. It can generate a set of Skolem functions witnessing the attained satisfying probability of a given SSAT formula. We also equip the solver ClauSSat with witness generation capability for comparison. Experimental results show that SharpSSAT outperforms current state-of-the-art solvers and can effectively generate compact Skolem strategies. The new witness-generating solver may broaden the applicability of SSAT to practical applications. 


SharpSSAT: A Witness-Generating Stochastic Boolean Satisfiability Solver

Neural Radiation Fields (NeRF) can implicitly represent 3D-consistent RGB images and geometric by optimizing an underlying continuous volumetric scene function using a sparse set of input views, which has greatly benefited view synthesis tasks. However, NeRF fails to estimate correct geometry when given fewer views, resulting in failure to synthesize novel views. Existing works rely on introducing depth images or adding depth estimation networks to resolve the problem of poor synthetic view in NeRF with fewer views. However, due to the lack of spatial consistency of the single-depth image and the poor performance of depth estimation with fewer views, the existing methods still have challenges in addressing this problem. So this paper proposes Bidirectional Optical Flow NeRF(BOF-NeRF), which addresses this problem by mining optical flow information between 2D images. Our key insight is that utilizing 2D optical flow images to design a loss can effectively guide NeRF to learn the correct geometry and synthesize the right novel view. We also propose a view-enhanced fusion method based on geometry and color consistency to solve the problem of novel view details loss in NeRF. We conduct extensive experiments on the NeRF-LLFF and DTU MVS benchmarks for novel view synthesis tasks with fewer images in different complex real scenes. We further demonstrate the robustness of BOF-NeRF under different baseline distances on the Middlebury dataset. In all cases, BOF-NeRF outperforms current state-of-the-art baselines for novel view synthesis and scene geometry estimation.

Bidirectional Optical Flow NeRF: High Accuracy and High Quality under Fewer Views

With the prevalence of smart mobile devices and location-based services, uncovering social relationships from human mobility data is of great value in real-world spatio-temporal applications ranging from friend recommendation, advertisement targeting to transportation scheduling. While a handful of sophisticated graph embedding techniques are developed for social relationship inference, they are significantly limited to the sparse and noisy nature of user mobility data, as they all ignore the essential problem of the existence of a large amount of noisy data unrelated to social activities in such mobility data. In this work, we present \textbf{\uline{S}}ocial \textbf{\uline{R}}elationship \textbf{\uline{I}}nference \textbf{\uline{Net}}work (SRINet), a novel Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework, to improve inference performance by learning to remove noisy data. Specifically, we first construct a multiplex user meeting graph to model the spatial-temporal interactions among users in different semantic contexts. Our proposed SRINet tactfully combines the representation learning ability of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) with the power of removing noisy edges of graph structure learning, which can learn effective user embeddings on the multiplex user meeting graph in a semi-supervised manner. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of SRINet against state-of-the-art techniques in inferring social relationships from user mobility data. The source code of our method is available at \url{https://github.com/qinguangming1999/SRINet}.

Graph Structure Learning on User Mobility Data for Social Relationship Inference

Deep neural models (e.g. Transformer) naturally learn spurious features, which create a ``shortcut'' between the labels and inputs, thus impairing the generalization and robustness. This paper advances self-attention mechanism to its robust variant for Transformer-based pre-trained language models (e.g. BERT). We propose \textit{Adversarial Self-Attention} mechanism (ASA), which adversarially biases the attentions to effectively suppress the model reliance on features (e.g. specific keywords) and encourage its exploration of broader semantics. We conduct comprehensive evaluation across a wide range of tasks for both pre-training and fine-tuning stages. For pre-training, ASA unfolds remarkable performance gain compared to naive training for longer steps. For fine-tuning, ASA-empowered models outweigh naive models by a large margin considering both generalization and robustness.

Adversarial Self-Attention for Language Understanding

Topic segmentation aims to reveal the latent structure of a document and divide it into multiple parts. However, current neural solutions are limited in the context modeling of sentences and feature representation of candidate boundaries. This causes the model to suffer from inefficient sentence context encoding and noise information interference. In this paper, we design a new text segmentation model SegFormer with unidirectional attention blocks to better model sentence representations. To alleviate the problem of noise information interference, SegFormer uses a novel additional context aggregator and a topic classification loss to guide the model to aggregate the information within the appropriate range.  In addition, SegFormer applies an iterative prediction algorithm to search for optimal boundaries progressively. We evaluate SegFormer's generalization ability, multilingual ability, and application ability on multiple challenging real-world datasets. Experiments show that our model significantly improves the performance by 7.5% on the benchmark WIKI-SECTION compared to several strong baselines. The application of SegFormer to a real-world dataset to separate normal and advertisement segments in product marketing essays also achieves superior performance in the evaluation with other cutting-edge models.

SegFormer: A Topic Segmentation Model with Controllable Range of Attention

Machine learning models have liberated manpower greatly in many real-world tasks, but their predictions are still worse than humans on some specific instances. To improve the performance, it is natural to optimize machine learning models to take decisions for most instances while delivering a few tricky instances to humans, resulting in the problem of Human Assisted Learning (HAL). Previous works mainly formulated HAL as a constrained optimization problem that tries to find a limited subset of instances for human decision such that the sum of model and human errors can be minimized; and employed the greedy algorithms, whose performance, however, may be limited due to the greedy nature. In this paper, we propose a new framework HAL-EMO based on Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization, which reformulates HAL as a bi-objective optimization problem that minimizes the number of selected instances for human decision and the total errors simultaneously, and employs a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) to solve it. We implement HAL-EMO using two MOEAs, the popular NSGA-II as well as the theoretically grounded GSEMO. We also propose a specific MOEA, called BSEMO, with biased selection and balanced mutation for HAL-EMO, and prove that for human assisted regression and classification, HAL-EMO using BSEMO can achieve better and same theoretical guarantees than previous greedy algorithms, respectively. Experiments on the tasks of medical diagnosis and content moderation show the superiority of HAL-EMO (with either NSGA-II, GSEMO or BSEMO) over previous algorithms, and that using BSEMO leads to the best performance of HAL-EMO.

Human Assisted Learning by Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization

As a long-standing and challenging task, image deblurring aims to reconstruct the latent sharp image from its degraded counterpart. To reduce the discrepancies in the spatial and frequency domains simultaneously, in this paper we develop
the dual-domain attention mechanism for image deblurring. Self-attention is widely used in vision tasks, however, due to the quadratic complexity, it is not applicable to the image deblurring with high-resolution images. To alleviate this issue, we propose a novel spatial attention module to implement self-attention in the style of dynamic group convolution to integrate each pixel with information from the local
region, enhancing the representation learning capability and reducing the computational burden. Regarding frequency domain learning, many frequency-based deblurring approaches either treat the spectrum as a whole or decompose the frequency components in a complicated manner. In this work, we devise a frequency attention module to compactly decouple the spectrum into distinct frequency parts and accentuate the informative part with extremely lightweight learnable parameters. Finally, we incorporate attention modules into a U-shape network. Extensive comparisons with prior arts on the common benchmarks show that our model, named Dual-Domain Attention Network (DDANet), obtains comparable results with a significantly improved inference speed.

Dual-domain Attention for Image Deblurring

Function approximation (FA) has been a critical component in solving large zero-sum games. Yet, little attention has been given towards FA in solving general-sum extensive-form games, despite them being widely regarded as being computationally more challenging than their fully competitive  or cooperative counterparts. A key challenge is that for many equilibria in general-sum games, no simple analogue to the state value function used in Markov Decision Processes and zero-sum games exists. In this paper, we propose learning the Enforceable Payoff Frontier (EPF)---a generalization of the state value function for general-sum games. We approximate the optimal Stackelberg extensive-form correlated equilibrium by representing EPFs with neural networks and training them by using appropriate backup operations and loss functions. This is the first method that applies FA to the Stackelberg setting, allowing us to scale to much larger games while still enjoying performance guarantees based on FA error. Additionally, our proposed method guarantees incentive compatibility and is easy to evaluate without having to depend on self-play or approximate best-response oracles.

Function Approximation for Solving Stackelberg Equilibrium in Large Perfect Information Games

Intraoperative hypotension (IOH) events warning plays a crucial role in preventing postoperative complications, such as postoperative delirium and mortality. Despite significant efforts, two fundamental problems limit its wide clinical use. The well-established IOH event warning systems are often built on proprietary medical devices that may not be available in all hospitals. The warnings are also triggered mainly through a predefined IOH event that might not be suitable for all patients. This work proposes a composite multi-attention (CMA) framework to tackle these problems by conducting short-term predictions on user-definable IOH events using vital signals in a low sampling rate with demographic characteristics. Our framework leverages a multi-modal fusion network to make four vital signals and three demographic characteristics as input modalities. For each modality, a multi-attention mechanism is used for feature extraction for better model training. Experiments on two large-scale real-world data sets show that our method can achieve up to 94.1% accuracy on IOH events early warning while the signals sampling rate is reduced by 3000 times. Our proposal CMA can achieve a mean absolute error of 4.50 mm Hg in the most challenging 15-minute mean arterial pressure prediction task and the error reduction by 42.9% compared to existing solutions.

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Approximating Full Conformal Prediction at Scale via Influence Functions

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