United States

**Abstract:**

Demographic rates such as recruitment and survival probability can vary considerably among populations of the same species, possibly due to spatially auto-correlated environmental processes. Breeding populations and foraging ranges are spatially segregated in colonial seabirds, making them ideal to study spatial patterns in demographic rates and their effects on local population dynamics. We investigated differences in age-dependent survival rates of Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus) breeding along the Dutch North Sea coast and we explored variation in survival among colonies in the context of their spatial distribution in the Netherlands. Between 1986 and 1988, per year approximately 100 nearly fledged individuals in 12-14 colonies received a unique colour ring, and birds have been resighted up until 2019 when at least one bird is known to be alive. We assessed whether survival until recruitment or until ten years old (their expected lifespan) explained variation in population trajectories of each colony. Juvenile and adult survival showed a strong, but different, north-to-south gradient in survival probability, while the spatial pattern of immature survival was less distinct. Recruitment nor the proportion of 10-year-old adults alive predicted whether a colony collapsed, declined, remained stable or increased. The distinct spatial pattern in survival suggests variation in regional food availability, which do not seem to drive local population dynamics. The absence of a link between survival and colony trajectories implies that connectivity between populations plays an important role affecting population dynamics.

**Authors:**

Rosemarie Kentie¹, Judy Shamoun-Baranes², Arie Spaans³, Kees Camphuysen⁴

¹University of Amsterdam &amp; Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research NIOZ, ²University of Amsterdam, ³retired from Wageningen Environmental Research ? WUR, ⁴Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research NIOZ

3rd World Seabird Conference

Age-dependent survival of Herring Gulls across 14 contrasting colonies

Welcome Seabirders!  

Welcome to Virtual World Seabird Conference 3 - vWSC3! Whether you are in your office or lab, at home, in a coffee shop or bar poaching some wifi, or at a remote field site or research vessel – we are very excited to welcome you to the third ever World Seabird Conference. 

We would like to thank ALL of you for being so patient as WSC3 was scheduled, postponed, rescheduled, revised to virtual, and scheduled again. Throughout all those iterations there was one message that remained perfectly clear – seabirders were eager to meet and share their science. If we could not meet in person then virtual it would have to be, but a 3rd WSC was something everyone wanted. That support and commitment helped the WSU Board of Directors and Member Societies sort through all of the challenges they faced to plan and hold this conference. 

The list of those that need to be thanked is long and, while we plan on recognizing many during the live closing plenary, it is important to do so here in writing as well. 

The Australasian Seabird Group was our Local Host for our plan to meet in Hobart, Tasmania. They invested substantial time and effort to find venues and plan events that we unfortunately were not able to visit. Nonetheless we appreciate their work on behalf of WSC3 and encourage all of you to thank them when you see their members in Gathertown or elsewhere during our virtual meeting. Their willingness to host created the initial excitement for WSC3 and without that our vWSC would not have been possible.

We also wish to thank the Science Program Committee, the Virtual Committee, and the Early Career Scientist Committee for their hard work planning the logistics, events, and schedule for vWSC3. These committees also had to deal with changing parameters and short timelines that made what is always a challenging task even more challenging. The Travel Awards Committee also invested time and effort in developing procedures for awarding travel funds that ultimately would not be implemented. 

Our ability to shift from an in-person to a virtual meeting, and to do so in a way that would be financially feasible, was due to the effective efforts of The International Fundraising Committee and to our financial sponsors. The IFC raised funds to support WSC3 and then, through the good relationships they built with sponsors, ensured we could re-envision how those funds could be used to support a virtual conference that would be affordable and high-quality.

We all owe the WSU Board of Directors and the Representatives of the Member Societies a great deal of thanks. They are the ones who manage the WSU and, for the past 18 months, have had to have a series of challenging meetings and conversations, have had to make a series of difficult choices, have had to do all of that while considering the short- and long-term health of WSU and the World Seabird Conferences, and did this while also managing their own challenges at their day jobs. We are grateful for their diligence, patience, foresight, and throughout all of the meetings, their collegiality. Also – a 6-year term is quite a commitment!

There would not be a WSC3 without a successful WSC1 and WSC2. Thanks go to the Pacific Seabird Group for their support of WSC1 in Victoria, Canada, and to the African Seabird Group for their support of WSC2 in Cape Town, South Africa. In each of these endeavors and for our current conference we were fortunate to work with a dependable and trustworthy partner in Podium Conferences. Michelle Smith and Marischal de Armond have become valued members of our team and have not only helped us plan conferences but have assisted and advised the WSU Chairs and Board on issues above and beyond conference planning. 

As we embark on our vWSC3 week we extend to all of you our thanks for showing up, for being patient, and most importantly for the work you do with seabirds. We are all part of a unique, global community that shares an interest, a fascination, and a passion for birds that make a living in our world’s oceans. We have advanced the science, conservation, and management of seabirds as well the ecosystems they inhabit. We are consistently impressed and motivated by the work you do. 

The WSU formed in 2010 because we saw the need for a global organization to address challenges at a global level. Over the past 11 years WSU has grown, adapted, and evolved to become the community that this week is making vWSC3 a reality. Enjoy the week, appreciate and support the friends and colleagues you have made in the community, and if you see us in a virtual hallway please stop and say hello! 

Thank you for the opportunity to serve all of you and the WSU over the past few years,

Nicholas Carlile, Interim Chair, WSU<br>
Patrick Jodice, 2nd Chair of the WSU<br><br>

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Join us for four days of science, networking and virtual engagement with delegates from around the world!

**Abstract:**

Demographic rates such as recruitment and survival probability can vary considerably among populations of the same species, possibly due to spatially auto-correlated environmental processes. Breeding populations and foraging ranges are spatially segregated in colonial seabirds, making them ideal to study spatial patterns in demographic rates and their effects on local population dynamics. We investigated differences in age-dependent survival rates of Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus) breeding along the Dutch North Sea coast and we explored variation in survival among colonies in the context of their spatial distribution in the Netherlands. Between 1986 and 1988, per year approximately 100 nearly fledged individuals in 12-14 colonies received a unique colour ring, and birds have been resighted up until 2019 when at least one bird is known to be alive. We assessed whether survival until recruitment or until ten years old (their expected lifespan) explained variation in population trajectories of each colony. Juvenile and adult survival showed a strong, but different, north-to-south gradient in survival probability, while the spatial pattern of immature survival was less distinct. Recruitment nor the proportion of 10-year-old adults alive predicted whether a colony collapsed, declined, remained stable or increased. The distinct spatial pattern in survival suggests variation in regional food availability, which do not seem to drive local population dynamics. The absence of a link between survival and colony trajectories implies that connectivity between populations plays an important role affecting population dynamics.

**Authors:**

Rosemarie Kentie¹, Judy Shamoun-Baranes², Arie Spaans³, Kees Camphuysen⁴

¹University of Amsterdam & Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research NIOZ, ²University of Amsterdam, ³retired from Wageningen Environmental Research ? WUR, ⁴Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research NIOZ

symposium

**Abstract:**

Industrialization is responsible of the release of tons of toxic compounds in the environment, which became imbedded into food webs worldwide, and numerous studies have reported effects on legacy persistent organic pollutants (chlorinated POPs, ex: DDT, PCB) on wildlife. In contrast, the effects of poly-and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have received less attention. PFAS cover more than 4,700 substances and are surface-active agents used in many products (non-stick cookware, fire-fighting foams, waterproof clothing). Transported over long distances, these highly persistent and bioaccumulative pollutants are now ubiquitous. As apex predators, seabirds are relevant bioindicators for PFAS contamination of the marine environment and there is a need to monitor PFAS across a large range of habitats, to better understand the global distribution of these substances. Among PFAS, perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) has been banned under the Stockholm Convention on POPs. However, the vast majority of PFAS are not regulated yet and some are increasingly detected in seabirds. PFAS exposure is known to be associated with several toxicological effects in humans and laboratory models but the consequences of PFAS exposure for wildlife remain overall poorly investigated. In this talk, we will present studies conducted in Svalbard, Antarctica and continental France and which give new insight into the effects of PFAS exposure on seabirds. Specifically, we show that, PFAS can affect several key physiological mechanisms (thyroid hormones, glucocorticoids, prolactin, basal metabolic rate, oxidative stress). Compared to legacy chlorinated POPs, PFAS often act in the opposite way on physiology and behavior. Finally, we will present the very first data on the effect of PFAS contamination on seabird sperm quality and discuss the possible mechanisms involved. Further research on the occurrence and effects of PFAS is needed to provide evidence-based information for policy and regulatory decisions relevant to seabird conservation.

**Authors:**

Olivier Chastel¹, Pierre Blévin², Ségolène Humann Guilleminot³, Fabrice Helfenstein¹, Sabrina Tartu¹, Frédéric Angelier¹, Manrico Sebastiano¹, David Costantini⁴, Scott Shaffer⁵, Paco Bustamante⁶, Pierre Labadie¹, Hélène Budzinski¹, Dorte Herzke⁷, Børge Moe⁸, Jan Ove Bustnes⁹, Geir Wing Gabrielsen¹⁰

¹CNRS, ²Akvaplan niva AS, ³Laboratory of Evolutionary Ecophysiology, Institute of Biology, University of Neuchatel, ⁴uséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, ⁵San José State University, ⁶University La Rochelle, ⁷NILU, ⁸NINA, ⁹NIA, ¹⁰NPI

Contaminants of growing concern: Poly- and Perfluoroalkylated Substances (PFAS) and their physiological consequences in seabirds

**Abstract:**

Presently, inter-annual variability in sea ice dynamics is increasing in Arctic regions. Sea ice dynamics, such as the timing of ice-melt and sea ice extent, highly influence trophic dynamics in marine Arctic systems, leading to changes in the abundance and distribution of fish and invertebrates. Thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) - a pursuit diving seabird that preys upon pelagic fish, benthic fish, and invertebrates - are thus expected to be negatively impacted by shifts in marine Arctic community structure. As such foraging behaviour, including the decision to balance self-feeding and chick-provisioning, will be influenced by environmental conditions, and mediated by either adult or chick body condition. In a low ice year, associated with reduced food availability, adults may choose to maximize self-feeding to maintain adult condition, while reducing chick provisioning at the cost of chick condition. Alternatively, adults may maintain or increase chick-provisioning to maximize chick condition, while reducing self-feeding at the cost of adult condition. To investigate the impact of environmental conditions on resource allocation decisions in this system we fitted adult murres with GPS accelerometers during the incubation and chick-rearing periods at Coats Island, Nunavut, Canada in 2018 and 2019. To assess the success of foraging trips for adult energetic condition we blood sampled murres before/after GPS deployments to measure energetic hormones (corticosterone), metabolites (non-esterified fatty acids, beta-hydroxybutyrate, and triglycerides), and stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N). To assess the success of foraging trips for chick energetic condition, we conducted feeding watches to identify prey types and chick-provisioning rates. By determining how variation in environmental conditions impacts resource allocation decisions, we can predict how breeding success and ultimately fitness will be impacted in rapidly changing Arctic ecosystems.

**Authors:**

Alyssa Eby¹, Allison Patterson², Kyle Elliott², H. Grant Gilchrist³, Oliver Love¹

¹University of Windsor, ²McGill University, ³Environment and Climate Change Canada

Resource allocation of a deep-diving Arctic seabird, the thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia), in response to sea-ice variation during the chick-rearing period

**Abstract:**

Albatrosses are well known to be attracted to vessels, but whether it is an innate behaviour, or a behaviour which develops with experience and age is not known. We studied this question in wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) in the Indian Ocean by combining the AIS (Automatic Identification System) data with fine-scale GPS tracking data, obtained through the Ocean Sentinel program, from juvenile, immature, adult and old birds fitted with loggers detecting the presence and locating vessels. We show that attraction and attendances of albatrosses changed extensively with age and differed between vessel types. Fishing vessels were more attractive than other vessels to birds, and juveniles both encountered fewer vessels, and were less attracted to these than adults but this attraction built during the immature phases. We discuss the implication of these results for the conservation of this threatened species.

**Authors:**

Henri Weimerskirch¹, Julien Collet¹, Alexandre Corbeau¹, Dominique Filippi², Adrien Pajot¹, Samantha Patrick³

¹CNRS, ²Sextant Technologies, ³University of Liverpool

Change with age in the attraction and attendance to vessels of wandering albatrosses: conservation implications

**Abstract:**

Understanding encounters between marine predators and fisheries can offer managers new perspectives on unwanted interactions to inform dynamic ocean management and predator conservation. Although seabird-fisheries overlap has been documented at many scales, remote identification of vessel encounter events has lagged because high-resolution vessel movement data often is lacking. We develop methods that reveal fine-scale albatross-fisheries encounters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We identified commercial fishing operations using Global Fishing Watch (GFW) data and detection algorithms that process vessel GPS tracks to identify fishing vessels. We compiled GPS tracks of adult black-footed (BFAL) and Laysan (LAAL) albatrosses, and juvenile short-tailed albatrosses (STAL). We quantified albatross-vessel encounter events based on the assumed distance at which birds perceive a vessel (≤30km), and interaction events when associations were ≤3km. For each event we quantified bird behavior, environmental conditions, and vessel characteristics and then applied Boosted Regression Tree models to identify drivers of interaction events (STAL and LAAL) and the duration of these events (STAL). The density of fishing effort and vessel length influenced model explanatory power, but fishing method and flag nation did not. Temporal variables (time of day and month), depth and bird foraging state also helped explain when STAL approached a vessel, but environmental conditions were more important for explaining interaction duration. LAAL were more likely to approach vessels during the last 60% (by time) of their foraging trips. BFAL were the most likely to approach vessels (61.9% of 21 encounters), but limited vessel encounters prevented evaluation of meaningful explanatory models. Our analysis offers unique insight into contributing factors of high-risk interactions that could lead to bycatch. Given the global spatio-temporal availability of GFW vessel data, our methods can be applied to other marine predators--if tracking data are available--to enhance dynamic ocean management and marine predator conservation.

**Authors:**

Leigh Torres¹, Rachael Orben¹, Josh Adams², Michelle Hester³, Scott Shaffer⁴, Rob Suryan⁵, Tomohiro Deguchi⁶, Kiyoaki Ozaki⁶, Fumio Sato⁶, Lindsay Young⁷, Melinda Conners⁸, David Kroodsma⁹, Corey Clatterbuck¹⁰, Melinda Conners¹⁰

¹Oregon State University, ²USGS, ³Oikonos Ecosystem Knowledge, ⁴San Jose State University, ⁵Alaska Fisheries Science Center, ⁶Yamashina Institute for Ornithology, ⁷Pacific Rim Conservation, ⁸Stony Brook University, ⁹Global Fishing Watch, ¹⁰San Diego State University

Across borders: External factors and prior behavior influence North Pacific albatross associations with fishing vessels

**Abstract:**

The world seabird community is declining globally, and seabird-fishery interactions have been identified as a significant cause of this general trend. It is therefore important and urgent to better understand the spatio-temporal determinants of such interactions. Historically, those have been extensively studied using at-sea observations and dietary studies. More recently, bird-borne devices allowed tracking seabird behaviour over time, but it is challenging to identify seabird-fisheries interactions exclusively from those movement data. Fortunately, bird-borne videos have brought invaluable information on the subject, enabling to directly observe the surroundings of ocean wanderers. Yet, the analysis of video data is extremely time-consuming. Using combined deployments of GPS and video cameras, we aimed at identifying specific movement patterns (GPS data) associated with seabird-fisheries interactions (as observed from video). If such patterns can be automatically identified, the routine can then be widely applied to similar datasets comprising only movement data. We deployed GPS recorders and cameras on 37 northern gannets (Morus bassanus) foraging in the English Channel from 2011 to 2015. In addition, 185 gannets from the same breeding colony were equipped with GPS only across 2005-2019. Using statistical and modelling procedures, we analysed the fine scale foraging movements of gannets interacting with fisheries to identify specific movement patterns associated with seabird-fisheries interactions. The classification model was then applied to all GPS-tracked Northern gannets to detect and map the spatio-temporal dynamics of gannet-fishery interactions in the English Channel across 2005-2019. Overall, our analysis provides a long-term perspective on seabird-fishery interactions in one of the most anthropized seas of the planet, and we propose a general methodology to help reach a better understanding of seabirds/fisheries interactions worldwide.

**Authors:**

David Grémillet¹, Amélie Lescroël¹, Andréa Thiebault², Jérôme Fort¹, Pascal Provost³, Akinori Takahashi⁴, Clara Péron⁵

¹CNRS, ²NMMU, ³LPO, ⁴National Institute of Polar Research, ⁵MNHN

Identifying seabird interactions with fisheries from GPS tracks: Automatic classification validated using bird-borne video recordings

**Abstract:**

Several seabird species are known to interact with fishing vessels to take advantage of their discards, which can result in accidental capture (bycatch). Bycatch is a major at-sea threat for these species and can cause important declines in their populations. Therefore, understanding the overlap between seabirds and fisheries has clear conservation implications. To assess such overlap, bio-logging combined with vessel tracking systems, like Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) or Automatic Identification System (AIS), has been widely used. Such vessel tracking systems, however, may contain gaps or errors due to several reasons, including the illicit manipulation (e.g. intentional switching off), or lack of adoption. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing activity can jeopardize the efforts to manage fisheries sustainably and may represent a major threat to seabird conservation. New bird-borne tags that can detect vessel radar emissions offer a unique opportunity for identifying fishery-independent seabird-vessel interactions. From 2018 to 2020, we deployed vessel radar detectors on 54 individual shearwaters foraging in three fishing areas over different Economic Exclusive Zones across the NW Mediterranean and the NW African coast. Subsequently, we compared AIS data from those areas with the radar detections obtained on the 120 shearwaters foraging trips. More than 50% of the trips from each area registered radar detections, across usual fishing grounds, showing a strong overlap between seabirds and fishing activity. Radar detections were mainly explained by fishing vessel locations. However, we detected a high proportion of radar detections that were not explained by neither fishing vessel locations nor domestic vessel routes, suggesting the presence of IUU fishing activity. Overall, our results offer new insights about the potential use of vessel radar detectors to assesses seabird-fishery interactions and detect potential areas of unreported vessel activity.

**Authors:**

Leia Navarro-Herrero¹, Sarah Saldanha¹, Diego Vicente-Sastre¹, Teresa Militão¹, David March¹, Jacob González-Solís¹

¹Universitat de Barcelona

Coupling bird-borne radar detectors and AIS data to assess seabird-fisheries interactions

**Abstract:**

Albatrosses and petrels are often attracted to fishing vessels to feed on fishery discards and bait. Large numbers of seabirds are killed by drowning in longline fisheries after caught on baited hooks and in trawl fisheries after entangled in nets. However, little is known about the spatial-temporal overlap between individual birds and vessels and behaviors in relation to vessels. To examine these, we attached both GPS- and camera- loggers on two North Pacific albatross species; 15 black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes) breeding on Torishima, Japan and 20 Laysan albatrosses (P. immutabilis) breeding on Oahu, Hawaii, during the early chick-rearing periods. Black-footed albatrosses concentrated mainly along the Izu chaine and some birds used off Fukushima 600 km away from the colony. Two birds of them encountered pole and line fishing vessels at the north of Torishima but did not follow them. Five Laysan albatrosses from Hawaii encountered fishing vessels at subtropical water close to their colony although they travelled over the North Pacific Transition Zones up to 800 km north of the colony. With clear images of these fishing vessels we identified as Hawaiian tuna/swordfish longliners. These Laysan albatrosses detected the longliners at an average distance of 5.4 km and followed them up to 5.3 hours. Our study indicates the usefulness of combining bird-borne GPS and camera loggers for studying fine-scale overlap between seabirds and fisheries and behaviors related to fishing vessels.

**Authors:**

Bungo Nishizawa¹, Takanori Sugawara², Jean‑Baptiste Thiebot¹, Lindsay Young³, Eric Vanderwerf³, Fumio Sato⁴, Naoki Tomita⁴, Hiroshi Minami⁵, Ken Yoda², Yutaka Watanuki⁶

¹National Institute of Polar Research, ²Nagoya University, ³Pacific Rim Conservation, ⁴Yamashina Institute for Ornithology, ⁵National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, ⁶Hokkaido University

Seabird-fishery interactions revealed by bird-borne GPS and camera loggers

**Abstract:**

On leeward Haleakalā, Maui Nui Seabird Recovery Project and Auwahi Wind Project of AEP Energy Partners monitor endangered ʻUaʻu (Pterodroma sandwichensis, Hawaiian petrel), and collaborate to control predators in adjacent management areas. Together these sites form a buffer for the greater ʻUaʻu colony within Haleakalā National Park. Since monitoring began, the number of active burrows and reproductive success rates have increased. We present predator activity data and control efforts over 8 years of management. Although predator abundance is locally low, feral cats (Felis catus) and small Indian mongoose (Herpestes auropunctatus) freely traverse the landscape and target ʻUaʻu burrows. We suggest that the current approach of intensive predator control near nesting sites is marginally effective due to behavioral patterns and large home ranges of the predators. Predator activity is assessed through standardized surveys, and by monitoring game camera data from ʻUaʻu burrows. Traps are maintained near areas of high burrow density, and are deployed in response to predator activity on cameras. Despite successful trapping efforts, predators persist, and predation rates (depredated/breeding burrows; annual mean 20%) remain largely unchanged. We show that adopting new trapping technology and methodology can achieve improvements in capture rates; however, we expect the current, reactive strategy to remain limited to local and near-term predation suppression. In addition, budget and personnel are difficult to maintain as the colony continues to expand. A change toward a more landscape-level approach that addresses the behavioral ecology of the target species is needed to produce long-term and widespread effects.

**Authors:**

Martin Frye¹, Jennifer Learned¹, George Akau², Benjamin Campbell², Nuuanu Santos², Cecelia Frisinger¹, Jay Penniman¹

¹Maui Nui Seabird Recovery Project, ²Auwahi Wind Project

Assessing the limitations of conventional predator control in Maui Nui: Re-envisioning the approach to protecting a unique seabird habitat

**Abstract:**

Renewable energy deployments, including wind farms, are a key part of government strategies to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Wind farms, however, pose a potential collision risk to air-borne taxa, that may be influenced by the individual behaviour of species, flight altitude, speed and exposure time. Nevertheless, we have limited understanding of how species behave within wind farms, and lack empirical evidence for avoidance/attraction responses at different spatial scales. We used GPS telemetry and accelerometry to examine how adult Lesser Black-backed Gulls Larus fuscus breeding at South Walney (Cumbria, UK) used offshore wind farms during the breeding season. The variation in spatial and temporal use of wind farms was first assessed across the years of study (2014-2019), within the breeding season (ca. March-August) and by time of day. We then used a range of classification methods to determine behaviour of birds, including Hidden Markov Models, Expectation-Maximization Binary Clustering, and accelerometry. Methods were also compared for their congruence in behavioural classification. A randomisation approach was used to investigate 3D avoidance and attraction to wind turbines at two different spatial scales: macro (wide-scale) avoidance of wind farms and meso (near-scale) avoidance of turbines. Birds frequently commuted through wind farms to reach foraging locations. However, many slower sinuous movements and 'stopped' behaviours were recorded around turbines and other associated platforms. Macro-avoidance was evident outside the wind farm, but varied spatially and weakened nearer to wind farms. Within wind farms, birds avoided the 3D rotor sweep volume of individual turbines, driven by a meso-avoidance response within and above the vertical rotor-sweep zone, but below this zone, birds exhibited attraction to turbine bases or platforms. These findings are providing robust site-specific collision estimates, in turn reducing uncertainty within impact assessments, and informing the conservation of a species that has experienced notable declines in coastal populations in recent years.

**Authors:**

Chris Thaxter¹, Daniel Johnston¹, Willem Bouten², Gary Clewley¹, Viola Ross-Smith¹, Nigel Clark¹, Elizabeth Masden³, Emily Scragg¹, Elizabeth Humphreys¹, Greg Conway¹, Lee Barber¹, Ros Green¹, Aonghais Cook¹, Niall Burton¹

¹British Trust for Ornithology, ²University of Amsterdam, ³Environmental Research Institute

How do gulls interact with offshore wind farms? Assessing avoidance and behaviour of lesser black-backed gulls using GPS telemetry and accelerometry

**Abstract:**

How will seabirds populations respond to climate variability and change? Can the dependence of seabirds populations on environmental conditions be quantified to enable future projections? Comparing seabird population dynamics and their response to environmental conditions across several locations provides a powerful means to assess the environmental characteristics defining the habitat suitability and the mechanisms driving year-to-year population fluctuations. First, we will introduce a conceptual model to decompose annual population growth rate at each site into two distinct components: the mean growth rate at the site and annual deviations from that mean. The functional dependence of the long-term population growth rate on mean climate state describes the habitat suitability curve, i.e. the environmental conditions under which populations can maintain positive mean growth rates and hence viable habitat conditions. Importantly, it enables understanding contrasting trends and responses to environmental variability of seabirds across species range. In addition, interannual variations in population growth rates at each site are likely dependent on variations in climate. This functional dependence may differ at each site, and conceptually depends on the habitat suitability curve. Second, we will applied this approach to Adélie penguin spatio-temporal responses to sea ice. This framework can be applied to any seabirds species for which time series of population abundance are available at several sites, providing an unprecedented opportunity to advance our fundamental understanding of seabird responses to climate change.

**Authors:**

David Iles¹, Heather Lynch², Rubao Ji¹, Christophe Barbraud³, Karine Delord³, Marika Holland⁴, Matthew Long⁴

¹WHOI, ²Stony Brook University, ³CEBC/CNRS, ⁴NCAR

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