United States

**Abstract:**

The marine environment is changing rapidly due to climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities. Understanding how the usage of spatial habitat by seabirds and their prey species may change with both of these pressures is essential for the predictions of population trends and current decision making on sustainable spatial management. Where both predator and prey species are highly mobile, it is important to predict how well their preferred habitats continue to overlap in future scenarios. The diversity of individually preferred habitat variables and drivers of those habitats may all be changing quite differently under the different pressures of climate change and anthropogenic activities. To predict future seabird-prey spatial habitat overlap we will present two synergistic approaches. The first is a spatial statistical Bayesian hierarchical approach called Joint Modelling with INLA (integrated Nested Laplace Approximation). Joint Modelling, as compared to typical single-species spatial distribution modelling, allows both predator and prey as a response variable, creating an output called a &#39;common spatial trend&#39; that allows quantification of overlap in future predator-prey distributions using a &#39;business as usual&#39; climate model for 2050. The degree of change within common spatial trends is presented between contrasting seabirds: common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, northern gannet and two prey species: herring, sandeels. The second is a time series approach using a Bayesian Network Ecosystem Model with a range of species across all trophic levels from 1990-2014. Within both approaches, we have used the same six important bio/physical variables (2 types of primary production, stratification, temperature, vertical and horizontal speed). The outcomes presented include the startlingly amount of change in common spatial trend predicted in just 30 years and the degree to which bottom-up forces are predicted as the drivers for population change.

**Authors:**

Beth Scott¹, Neda Trifonova¹, Dinara Sadydova², Alexander Sadykov³, Michela De Dominicis⁴, Sarah Walkin⁴, Judith Wolf⁴

¹University of Aberdeen, ²University of Queen&#39;s Belfast, ³University of Queen&#39;s Belfast, ⁴National Oceanographic Centre

3rd World Seabird Conference

Spatial and temporal Bayesian approaches to predict future seabird-prey overlap and population change

Welcome Seabirders!  

Welcome to Virtual World Seabird Conference 3 - vWSC3! Whether you are in your office or lab, at home, in a coffee shop or bar poaching some wifi, or at a remote field site or research vessel – we are very excited to welcome you to the third ever World Seabird Conference. 

We would like to thank ALL of you for being so patient as WSC3 was scheduled, postponed, rescheduled, revised to virtual, and scheduled again. Throughout all those iterations there was one message that remained perfectly clear – seabirders were eager to meet and share their science. If we could not meet in person then virtual it would have to be, but a 3rd WSC was something everyone wanted. That support and commitment helped the WSU Board of Directors and Member Societies sort through all of the challenges they faced to plan and hold this conference. 

The list of those that need to be thanked is long and, while we plan on recognizing many during the live closing plenary, it is important to do so here in writing as well. 

The Australasian Seabird Group was our Local Host for our plan to meet in Hobart, Tasmania. They invested substantial time and effort to find venues and plan events that we unfortunately were not able to visit. Nonetheless we appreciate their work on behalf of WSC3 and encourage all of you to thank them when you see their members in Gathertown or elsewhere during our virtual meeting. Their willingness to host created the initial excitement for WSC3 and without that our vWSC would not have been possible.

We also wish to thank the Science Program Committee, the Virtual Committee, and the Early Career Scientist Committee for their hard work planning the logistics, events, and schedule for vWSC3. These committees also had to deal with changing parameters and short timelines that made what is always a challenging task even more challenging. The Travel Awards Committee also invested time and effort in developing procedures for awarding travel funds that ultimately would not be implemented. 

Our ability to shift from an in-person to a virtual meeting, and to do so in a way that would be financially feasible, was due to the effective efforts of The International Fundraising Committee and to our financial sponsors. The IFC raised funds to support WSC3 and then, through the good relationships they built with sponsors, ensured we could re-envision how those funds could be used to support a virtual conference that would be affordable and high-quality.

We all owe the WSU Board of Directors and the Representatives of the Member Societies a great deal of thanks. They are the ones who manage the WSU and, for the past 18 months, have had to have a series of challenging meetings and conversations, have had to make a series of difficult choices, have had to do all of that while considering the short- and long-term health of WSU and the World Seabird Conferences, and did this while also managing their own challenges at their day jobs. We are grateful for their diligence, patience, foresight, and throughout all of the meetings, their collegiality. Also – a 6-year term is quite a commitment!

There would not be a WSC3 without a successful WSC1 and WSC2. Thanks go to the Pacific Seabird Group for their support of WSC1 in Victoria, Canada, and to the African Seabird Group for their support of WSC2 in Cape Town, South Africa. In each of these endeavors and for our current conference we were fortunate to work with a dependable and trustworthy partner in Podium Conferences. Michelle Smith and Marischal de Armond have become valued members of our team and have not only helped us plan conferences but have assisted and advised the WSU Chairs and Board on issues above and beyond conference planning. 

As we embark on our vWSC3 week we extend to all of you our thanks for showing up, for being patient, and most importantly for the work you do with seabirds. We are all part of a unique, global community that shares an interest, a fascination, and a passion for birds that make a living in our world’s oceans. We have advanced the science, conservation, and management of seabirds as well the ecosystems they inhabit. We are consistently impressed and motivated by the work you do. 

The WSU formed in 2010 because we saw the need for a global organization to address challenges at a global level. Over the past 11 years WSU has grown, adapted, and evolved to become the community that this week is making vWSC3 a reality. Enjoy the week, appreciate and support the friends and colleagues you have made in the community, and if you see us in a virtual hallway please stop and say hello! 

Thank you for the opportunity to serve all of you and the WSU over the past few years,

Nicholas Carlile, Interim Chair, WSU<br>
Patrick Jodice, 2nd Chair of the WSU<br><br>

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Join us for four days of science, networking and virtual engagement with delegates from around the world!

**Abstract:**

The marine environment is changing rapidly due to climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities. Understanding how the usage of spatial habitat by seabirds and their prey species may change with both of these pressures is essential for the predictions of population trends and current decision making on sustainable spatial management. Where both predator and prey species are highly mobile, it is important to predict how well their preferred habitats continue to overlap in future scenarios. The diversity of individually preferred habitat variables and drivers of those habitats may all be changing quite differently under the different pressures of climate change and anthropogenic activities. To predict future seabird-prey spatial habitat overlap we will present two synergistic approaches. The first is a spatial statistical Bayesian hierarchical approach called Joint Modelling with INLA (integrated Nested Laplace Approximation). Joint Modelling, as compared to typical single-species spatial distribution modelling, allows both predator and prey as a response variable, creating an output called a 'common spatial trend' that allows quantification of overlap in future predator-prey distributions using a 'business as usual' climate model for 2050. The degree of change within common spatial trends is presented between contrasting seabirds: common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, northern gannet and two prey species: herring, sandeels. The second is a time series approach using a Bayesian Network Ecosystem Model with a range of species across all trophic levels from 1990-2014. Within both approaches, we have used the same six important bio/physical variables (2 types of primary production, stratification, temperature, vertical and horizontal speed). The outcomes presented include the startlingly amount of change in common spatial trend predicted in just 30 years and the degree to which bottom-up forces are predicted as the drivers for population change.

**Authors:**

Beth Scott¹, Neda Trifonova¹, Dinara Sadydova², Alexander Sadykov³, Michela De Dominicis⁴, Sarah Walkin⁴, Judith Wolf⁴

¹University of Aberdeen, ²University of Queen's Belfast, ³University of Queen's Belfast, ⁴National Oceanographic Centre

symposium

**Abstract:**

The global Black-legged Kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) population is declining rapidly in NW Europe, and so effective productivity monitoring is essential to understand such concerning long-term population trends. Current UK Seabird Monitoring Programme fieldworker methods are sufficient but labour-intensive, preclude detailed phenology data, and are not always feasible in remote locations. Time-lapse cameras have the potential to overcome these challenges, but the volume of images can rapidly exceed researchers' visual processing capabilities as study size increases. Using volunteer citizen scientists to analyse photographs and training computer algorithms to recognise birds represent two possible image processing methods. Before algorithm-based methods can be deployed, computer analysis of time-lapse photographs must be validated against fieldworker observations, and image analysis by citizen scientists must be validated against skilled image analysts with field experience. Using camera and 'human' monitoring data from sites in the UK (Skomer Island) and Arctic Circle, this study aims firstly to determine whether time-lapse photography can measure Kittiwake nesting success and phenology, and secondly to validate computer analysis vs fieldworker methods, and citizen scientists vs skilled image analysts. Validating time-lapse photography to measure breeding success and phenology could unlock the potential to better understand the causes of global Black-legged Kittiwake decline.

**Authors:**

Alice Edney¹, Matt Wood², Tom Hart¹, Mark Jessopp³, Alexa Piggott⁴

¹University of Oxford, ²University of Gloucestershire, ³University College Cork, ⁴Wildlife Trust of South and West Wales

Validating the effectiveness of time-lapse photography for the population monitoring of a colonial seabird

**Abstract:**

Seabirds are affected by anthropogenic activities including fishing, climate change and marine debris. Increasingly, seabirds are also subject to anthropogenic activity arising from human development, particularly within nearshore areas. Therefore, regulators need to quantify seabird use of these habitats to understand the potential for interactions with developments. The real-world relevance of such questions is increasing as our use of these habitats increases e.g. aquaculture and marine renewables. Yet, many difficulties exist in gathering data within nearshore environments. A widely used technique for assessing seabird abundance and distribution within nearshore areas is vantage point surveys (VPS) from the shore. However, the ability of VPS to gather data suitable for Environmental Impact Assessments can be compromised by several biases stemming from detectability issues and the spatiotemporal resolution of data. These biases are exaggerated in high-energy environments (relevant to tidal stream/wave energy generation) and survey techniques are often poorly suited to these environments. Our study seeks to investigate the use of multiple survey techniques as an integrated approach to seabird monitoring. We undertook concurrent VPS and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) transects within the Strangford Lough tidal channel (Northern Ireland) to assess seabird abundance and distribution. We discuss the similarities/differences observed in seabird abundance and distribution detected by both survey methods to explore the potential benefits of using an integrated approach. We highlight when it may be beneficial to use UAV surveys to supplement VPS data to build a more complete picture of seabird use of tidal stream environments. The use of UAV surveys may represent a useful validation tool for the more widely used VPS, as well as the potential to add additional complementary data. This work has wide reaching applications as VPS are commonly used to understand seabird use of the marine environment.

**Authors:**

Melissa Costagliola-Ray¹, Elizabeth Masden¹, Jared Wilson², Paul Caplat³, Lilian Lieber³, Alex Nimmo-Smith⁴, Nina O'Hanlon¹

¹University of Highlands and Islands, ²Marine Scotland Science, ³Queen's University Belfast, ⁴The University of Plymouth

Comparing vantage point and unmanned aerial vehicle surveys for assessments of seabird abundance and fine-scale distribution.

**Abstract:**

Feeding watches is a standard procedure for recording prey choice and time budgets of breeding seabirds. The method is however time and labor intensive which limits how much data that is feasible to collect. Time lapse cameras are increasingly used for recording breeding seabirds for extended periods, but most applications so far have relied on manual scrutinization of the recorded imagery which is also time consuming. Within the Karlsö Auk Lab, an artificial construction for breeding common murres in the Baltic Sea, we have installed a commercially available CCTV system that supports multiple cameras and record videos on up to 60 frames per second. IR light allow for recordings also in complete darkness. Three months of continuous filming of two cameras in the field season of 2019 produced approx. 3.8 Tb of data. To automate the recording of presence/absence of breeding individuals and chick feedings, we arranged a hackathon whereby students and professionals had two weeks to develop automated workflows for data analysis. We present general outcomes of the competition with special focus on the winning solution, which uses object detection and deep learning methods to automatically calculate time budgets for the breeding birds. The method can provide behavioral data on an unprecedented level of detail but requires significant computation power. We share insights and discuss future possible application of the technology and how the combination of AI and citizen science can contribute to a wider application of the technology.

**Authors:**

Jonas Hentati Sundberg¹, Olin Agnes², Sheetal Reddy³, Jayanth Reddy³, Siddharta Kasaraneni³, Per-Arvid Berglund⁴, Aron Hejdström³, Olof Olsson⁵

¹Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, ²University of Strathclyde, ³Baltic Seabird Project, ⁴Baltic Seabird Project & Swedish Museum of Natural History, ⁵Stockholm University

Can AI revolutionize seabird feeding watches?

**Abstract:**

Age and experience affect key life-history traits, influencing evolutionary processes in a variety of ways. Timing of breeding in relation to optimal environmental conditions (e.g. peaks in prey availability) can also influence breeding success, and studies of closely-related, allochronic species may help disentangle the effects of phenological mismatch on ageing patterns. Here, we test for the effects of age and experience on the survival and reproduction of two long-lived seabirds with different timing of breeding and divergent population trajectories. At South Georgia, populations of the northern (NGP, Macronectes halli) and southern giant petrel (SGP, M. giganteus), are increasing and stable, respectively. In early adulthood, first-time breeders of both species had lower breeding success and annual survival. Breeding success improved markedly with age until around 20 years, driven by within-individual factors, but was lower in SGP which also experienced earlier reproductive senescence. Pre-fledging body mass in NGP showed a broadly quadratic relationship with parental age, suggesting that the age-specific pattern in breeding success was partially related to variation in foraging performance. Furthermore, pre-fledging body mass increased rapidly with parental age among first-time breeders in both species, but breeding success did not, further demonstrating the importance of foraging performance rather than breeding experience per se. Due to allochrony, NGP rear their chicks when the availability of seasonally-limited, high-calorie food (seal and penguin carrion) is higher. This would explain their delayed reproductive senescence and, potentially, improved performance in adulthood due to better neonatal nutrition. In addition, it contributes to the divergent population trajectories of the two species at South Georgia. These findings provide empirical evidence for the influence of phenological mismatch on reproductive senescence.

**Authors:**

Dimas Gianuca¹, Richard Phillips², Andrew Wood², Deborah Pardo², Stephen Votier³

¹Projeto Albatroz, ²British Antarctic Survey, ³University of Exeter

Age-specific variation in demographic traits of sympatric seabirds with divergent population trajectories

The influence of prey biomass on the diving behavior of Cassin's auklets during a decade of variable reproductive success

**Abstract:**

The black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) is a pelagic seabird species known to breed on cliffs in the northern hemisphere. This species is categorized as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List and its global population is considered declining on its whole breeding range. As a pelagic seabird, its populations do not rely on landfills or on any human originated waste like some related gull species do. Nevertheless, some black-legged kittiwake (BLK) colonies have established on artificial grounds like urban areas, industrial buildings, and other various types of man-made structures. We first summarized the various cases of nesting recorded on such structures across the BLK's breeding range. Then we focused on the southernmost urban colony known for this species, established at Boulogne-sur-mer in France. We characterized this urban colony in relation to the population dynamics of the closest colony located in natural habitat and the artificial habitat features in terms of exposure, ledges dimensions, elevation and distance to the shore. We also investigated the challenges this colony has to face in relation to human activities. Indeed, the establishment of BLK colonies on man-made structures often lead to conflictual interactions and human actions to deter the breeders. We explored how the various sub-colonies respond to nest removal resulting from building demolition or renovation which occurred during the nonbreeding season. We discussed the outcomes of mitigation measures implemented with regard to both urban area management and BLK population dynamics. Finally, we stress the need to turn this conflictual context into a rare opportunity for effective seabird conservation perspectives.

**Authors:**

Sylvain Dromzée¹, Sylvain Poisblaud¹

¹Groupe ornithologique et naturaliste du Nord - Pas-de-Calais (GON)

The use of man-made structure as breeding site by black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla): a global overview and the case study of its southernmost urban colony at Boulogne-sur-Mer (France)

**Abstract:**

About 38% of the seabird species recognized globally occurs in Brazil as breeders, migrants or vagrants. In Brazil, 14 seabird species breed at the following archipelagos: Fernando de Noronha, São Pedro and São Paulo, Trindade and Martin Vaz, Abrolhos; and Atol das Rocas. Nevertheless, until recently, information of seabirds in these islands was limited to a list of species and occasional observations. The lack of robust population estimates was highlighted when the need to determine long-term trends and population dynamics arose. In 2009 the Brazil's National Center for Wild Bird Conservation and Research (ICMBio/CEMAVE) and partners started surveying seabirds population numbers more consistently, establishing conditions for a long term monitoring program. Population numbers for all seabird species that breed on Fernando de Noronha and Abrolhos archipelagos have been monitored using standardized census techniques, making a powerful tool to evaluate and identify key ecological processes and responses to local threats, as the rodent invasive species presence on both. Although decreasing population trends have been detected for the past decade to Audubon's Shearwater and Brown Booby. Stable trends have been observed for Red-billed Tropicbird, White-tailed Tropicbird, Red-footed Booby, and for White Tern. Masked Booby, Magnificent Frigatebird, Black Noddy, Brown Noddy and Sooty Tern presented overall increasing trends on population numbers within the monitored colonies. Instead of working with one species in a multi-colony/multi-population approach, focus was given to undertake multi-species demographic studies at multiple colonies within the same site. In the future, combined analysis of different strategies and ecological features of different seabird species sharing the same island will have the power to better guide decision-making within protected areas, trying to minimize future population impacts and subsidize management strategies.

**Authors:**

Patricia Serafini¹, Guilherme Nunes², Marcio Efe³, Lucas Lage¹, Lucas Penna¹, Ricardo Krul⁴, Maria Bernadete Barbosa¹, Barbara Figueiredo¹, Thayná Mello¹, Ricardo Araújo¹, Fernando Repinaldo¹, Priscilla Amaral¹, Camila Gomes¹, Leandro Bugoni⁵

¹ICMBio, ²UFRGS, ³UFAL, ⁴Tríade, ⁵FURG

Multi-species colonies within the same archipelago: facing environmental challenges in different ways

**Abstract:**

Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer a variety of new ways forward with respect to collecting important ecological data. In the past, gathering fine-scale information about behaviours of seabirds at colonies could only be performed through huge amounts of manual observations. This meant that biologists were required to put themselves in potentially unsafe and highly uncomfortable conditions for extended periods of time. However, cameras have become cheap to use and AI has advanced to a point where we can monitor specific events. At the colony, seabirds engage in many low energy activities (e.g., jostling, shuffling, fighting, copulating, feeding, flapping), and these behaviours are not often monitored. Using video cameras and AI, we are able to monitor energy expenditure at the colony for individual birds, or for groups. Combining this with meteorological data allows us to further test if weather or climate conditions lead to changes in energetics. For this case example we use cameras deployed at stora karlsö, looking at common murre (Uria aalge).

**Authors:**

Grant Humphries¹, Richard Podolsky², Bento Goncalves³, Ambarish Ganguly⁴, Jonas Sundberg⁵

¹HiDef Aerial Surveying Ltd., ²Ecology and Technology, ³Stony Brook University, ⁴Unaffiliated, ⁵Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

Automated monitoring of seabird energetics

**Abstract:**

Varying prey availability influences species interactions, driving changes in the foraging behaviour and dietary composition of predators. Migratory forage fish species act as a pulsed prey resource for marine predators and can cause changes in interactions among seabird species while aggregated within foraging ranges of multi-species breeding colonies. Capelin (Mallotus villosus) is a keystone forage fish species in the northwest Atlantic, which migrates annually from offshore regions to spawn in coastal Newfoundland, resulting in a large increase in inshore prey biomass during the breeding season of multiple seabird species. Our objective was to investigate changes in gull predation and kleptoparasitism on Atlantic Puffins (Fratercula arctica) under varying capelin availability throughout the breeding season on the northeast Newfoundland coast. Focal behavioural observations of individual Great Black-backed (Larus marinus) and Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus) along with instantaneous scan samples of species-specific gull presence and behaviour within the puffin colony yielded few direct observations of gull predation or kleptoparasitic attacks on puffins. However, a higher number of gulls and a higher proportion of gulls exhibiting aggressive behaviours were observed in the puffin colony after capelin availability decreased post-spawning, suggesting a higher risk of predation and kleptoparasitism on puffins. In support, standardized colony-based carcass surveys revealed an increase in puffin adult and chick carcasses late in the breeding season, as puffin chicks became more available during fledging and capelin availability decreased post-spawning. Determining the impact of gull predation on Atlantic Puffins under varying capelin availability will inform appropriate fisheries and gull management strategies for the protection of this globally threatened alcid.

**Authors:**

Gibson Rieger¹, Gail Davoren¹

¹University of Manitoba

Gull predation and kleptoparasitism on breeding Atlantic Puffins (Fratercula arctica) under varying forage fish availability

**Abstract:**

Social Attraction has become an important tool for seabird conservation worldwide. Pioneered in 1977 in Maine, USA, this method uses the sights and sounds of thriving seabird colonies to attract birds to quality habitat. Since the success of puffin and tern restoration in Maine, over 47 species have been lured to more than 116 favorable sites in 14 countries. Multiple species from the families Spheniscidae, Diomedeidae, Procellariidae, Hydrobatidae, Pelecanoididae, Sulidae, Phalacrocoraciidae, Laridae, and Alcidae, have responded to decoys, mirrors, sounds, and other social cues to nest in safe places. Decoys are made from a variety of materials including wood, plastic, concrete, and fiberglass, with various degrees of realism. Auditory cues have most often been provided by solar-recharged sound systems which play 24/7, nocturnally, or at prescribed intervals throughout the breeding season. Two formerly distinct, but now aligned, conservation-minded enterprises have emerged to supply materials for social attraction projects around the world. Mad River Decoys (now Mad River Decoy by Audubon-MRDA) and Murremaid Music Boxes (MMB) have provided equipment for projects targeting 35 species in 10 countries (18 states and 4 territories in USA). New MRDA and MMB efforts include roto-molded decoys manufactured from 100% recycled plastic, remotely controlled sound system activation/deactivation, and remote auditory and visual monitoring of restoration efforts.

**Authors:**

Susan Schubel¹, Stephen Kress¹, Donald Lyons¹

¹Audubon Seabird Restoration Program

Spatial and temporal Bayesian approaches to predict future seabird-prey overlap and population change

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Next from 3rd World Seabird Conference

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