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The principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty is prevalent throughout sequential decision making problems such as multi-armed bandits and reinforcement learning (RL). To be successful, an optimistic RL algorithm must over-estimate the true value function (optimism) but not by so much that it is inaccurate (estimation error). In the tabular setting, many state-of-the-art methods produce the required optimism through approaches which are intractable when scaling to deep RL. We re-interpret these scalable optimistic model-based algorithms as solving a tractable noise augmented MDP. This formulation achieves a competitive regret bound: $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}( |\mathcal{S}|H\sqrt{|\mathcal{A}| T } )$ when augmenting using Gaussian noise, where $T$ is the total number of environment steps. We also explore how this trade-off changes in the deep RL setting, where we show empirically that estimation error is significantly more troublesome. However, we also show that if this error is reduced, optimistic model-based RL algorithms can match state-of-the-art performance in continuous control problems.

UAI 2021

Towards Tractable Optimism in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

optimism

reinforcement learning

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

The 37th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2021) is held fully online. We have an exciting program consisting of keynote talks by [Susan Murphy](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=A), [Eric Horvitz](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=B), [Lenka Zdeborová](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=C), [Judea Pearl](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=D) and [Ankur Moitra](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=E), a town hall meeting, peer-reviewed papers, and three workshops. The main conference is single-track and each paper is show-cased with a live component (either a live discussion and Q&A, or a live lightning talk). All papers are also featured in video presentations and in poster sessions in gather.town. The three parallel workshops on Friday allow for smaller meetings on current topics.

The walkthrough video below shows how you can navigate this site and use the different possibilities for interaction: UAIsland2021 on gather.town for posters and social interactions, the mementor platform for virtual mentoring sessions, and the chat and Q&A systems for discussions about talks and posters.

Have a great UAI 2021! 
<br>
<br>Cassio de Campos and Marloes Maathuis
<br>UAI 2021 Program Chairs
<br>uai2021programchairs@gmail.com

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A ticket is required to access this conference. Please use the provided link to register for the event.

https://auai.org/uai2021/registration

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

lightning talk

We present a new non-negative matrix factorization model for $(0,1)$

Doubly Non-Central Beta Matrix Factorization for DNA Methylation Data

Hierarchical clustering is a critical task in numerous domains. Many approaches are based on heuristics and the properties of the resulting clusterings are studied post hoc. However, in several applications, there is a natural cost function that can be used to characterize the quality of the clustering. In those cases, hierarchical clustering can be seen as a combinatorial optimization problem. To that end, we introduce a new approach based on A* search. We overcome the prohibitively large search space by combining A* with a novel trellis data structure. This results in an exact algorithm that scales beyond previous state of the art (from search space with 10^12 trees to 10^15 trees) and an approximate algorithm that improves over baselines, even in enormous search spaces (that contain more than 10^1000 trees). Empirically we demonstrate that our method achieves substantially higher quality results than baselines for a particle physics use case and other clustering benchmarks. We describe how our method provides significantly improved theoretical bounds on the time and space complexity of A* for clustering.

Exact and Approximate Hierarchical Clustering Using A*

Parametric path problems arise independently in diverse domains, ranging from transportation to finance, where they are studied under various assumptions. We formulate a general path problem with relaxed assumptions, and describe how this formulation is applicable in these domains.

Generalized Parametric Path Problems

Machine-learning models contain information about the data they were trained

Measuring Data Leakage in Machine-Learning Models with Fisher Information

In this paper, we study the differentially private Principal Component Analysis (PCA) problem in stochastic optimization settings. We first propose

Principal Component Analysis in the Stochastic Differential Privacy Model

Dimension reduction plays a pivotal role in analysing high-dimensional data. However, observations with missing values present serious difficulties in directly applying standard dimension reduction techniques. As a large number of dimension reduction approaches are based on the Gram matrix, we first investigate the effects of missingness on dimension reduction by studying the statistical properties of the Gram matrix with or without missing data, and then we present a bias-corrected Gram matrix with nice statistical properties under heterogeneous missingness. Extensive empirical results, on both simulated and publicly available real datasets, show that the proposed unbiased Gram matrix can significantly improve a broad spectrum of representative dimension reduction approaches.

Dimension reduction for data with heterogeneous missingness

Estimation of probability density function from samples is one of the central problems in statistics and machine learning. Modern neural network-based models can learn high dimensional distributions but have problems with hyperparameter selection and are often prone to instabilities during training and inference. We propose a new efficient tensor train-based model for density estimation (TTDE). Such density parametrization allows exact sampling, calculation of cumulative and marginal density functions, and partition function. It also has very intuitive hyperparameters. We develop an efficient non-adversarial training procedure for TTDE based on the Riemannian optimization. Experimental results demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed method in density estimation and sampling tasks, while TTDE significantly outperforms competitors in training speed.

Tensor-Train Density Estimation

We propose a similarity measure for sparsely sampled time course data in the form of a log-likelihood ratio of Gaussian processes (GP). The proposed GP similarity is similar to a Bayes factor and provides enhanced robustness to noise in sparse time series, such as those found in various biological settings, e.g., gene transcriptomics. We show that the GP measure is equivalent to the Euclidean distance when the noise variance in the GP is negligible compared to the noise variance of the signal. Our numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data show improved performance of the GP similarity when used in conjunction with two distance-based clustering methods.

Similarity Measure for Sparse Time Course Data Based on Gaussian Processes

To capture the slowly time-varying spectral content of real-world time-series, a common paradigm is to partition the data into approximately stationary intervals and perform inference in the time-frequency domain. However, this approach lacks a corresponding nonstationary time-domain generative model for the entire data and thus, time-domain inference occurs in each interval separately. This results in distortion/discontinuity around interval boundaries and can consequently lead to erroneous inferences based on any quantities derived from the posterior, such as the phase. To address these shortcomings, we propose the Piecewise Locally Stationary Oscillation (PLSO) model for decomposing time-series data with slowly time-varying spectra into several oscillatory, piecewise-stationary processes. PLSO, as a nonstationary time-domain generative model, enables inference on the entire time-series without boundary effects and simultaneously provides a characterization of its time-varying spectral properties. We also propose a novel two-stage inference algorithm that combines Kalman theory and an accelerated proximal gradient algorithm. We demonstrate these points through experiments on simulated data and real neural data from the rat and the human brain.

A generative framework for decomposing nonstationary time-series into piecewise stationary oscillatory components

Bayesian decision theory provides an elegant framework for acting optimally under uncertainty when tractable posterior distributions are available. Modern Bayesian models, however, typically involve intractable posteriors that are approximated with, potentially crude, surrogates. This difficulty has engendered loss-calibrated techniques that aim to learn posterior approximations that favor high-utility decisions. In this paper, focusing on Bayesian neural networks, we develop methods for correcting approximate posterior predictive distributions encouraging them to prefer high-utility decisions. In contrast to previous work, our approach is agnostic to the choice of the approximate inference algorithm, allows for efficient test time decision making through amortization, and empirically produces higher quality decisions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through controlled experiments spanning a diversity of tasks and datasets.

Towards Tractable Optimism in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

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Doubly Non-Central Beta Matrix Factorization for DNA Methylation Data

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