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The development of Variational Inference (VI) and Bayesian Deep Neural Networks has increasingly led to the uncertainty estimation in deep models, critical to many real-world applications. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations may not be sufficient. However, moving to other distributions necessitates Monte Carlo (MC) sampling to estimate statistical values such as the KL divergence: ultimately expensive and scaling poorly as the dimensions of both the input data and the model grow. This is directly related to the structure of the computation graph, which can grow linearly as a function of the number of MC samples needed. Here, we construct a framework to describe these computation graphs, and identify probability families where the graph size can be independent or only weakly dependent on the number of MC samples. These nice probability families correspond directly to large classes of distributions common in practice. Empirically, we find that we can run a much larger number of iterations for MC approximations for larger architectures widely used in vision with gains in performance measured in confident accuracy, stability of training, memory and training time.

UAI 2021

Graph Reparametrizations for Enabling 1000+ Monte Carlo Iterations In Bayesian Deep Neural Networks

bayesian neural networks

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

The 37th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2021) is held fully online. We have an exciting program consisting of keynote talks by [Susan Murphy](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=A), [Eric Horvitz](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=B), [Lenka Zdeborová](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=C), [Judea Pearl](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=D) and [Ankur Moitra](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=E), a town hall meeting, peer-reviewed papers, and three workshops. The main conference is single-track and each paper is show-cased with a live component (either a live discussion and Q&A, or a live lightning talk). All papers are also featured in video presentations and in poster sessions in gather.town. The three parallel workshops on Friday allow for smaller meetings on current topics.

The walkthrough video below shows how you can navigate this site and use the different possibilities for interaction: UAIsland2021 on gather.town for posters and social interactions, the mementor platform for virtual mentoring sessions, and the chat and Q&A systems for discussions about talks and posters.

Have a great UAI 2021! 
<br>
<br>Cassio de Campos and Marloes Maathuis
<br>UAI 2021 Program Chairs
<br>uai2021programchairs@gmail.com

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A ticket is required to access this conference. Please use the provided link to register for the event.

https://auai.org/uai2021/registration

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

lightning talk

Active search refers to the problem of efficiently locating targets in an unknown environment by actively making data-collection decisions. In this paper, we are focusing on multiple aerial robots (agents) detecting targets such as gas leaks, radiation sources or human survivors of disasters. One of the main challenges of active search with multiple agents in unknown environments is impracticality of central coordination due to the difficulties of connectivity maintenance. In this paper, we propose two distinct active search algorithms that allow for multiple robots to independently make data-collection decisions without a central coordinator. Throughout we consider that targets are sparsely located around the environment in keeping with compressive sensing assumptions and its applicability

Decentralized Multi-Agent Active Search for Sparse Signals

Directed acyclic graph models with hidden variables have been much studied, particularly in view of their computational efficiency and connection with causal methods. In this paper we provide the circumstances under which it is possible for two variables to be identically equal, while all other observed variables stay jointly independent of them and mutually of each other. We find that this is possible if and only if the two variables are `densely connected'; in other words, if applications of identifiable causal interventions on the graph cannot (non-trivially) separate them. As a consequence of this, we can also allow such pairs of random variables have any bivariate joint distribution that we choose. This has implications for model search, since it suggests that we can reduce to only consider graphs in which densely connected vertices are always joined by an edge.

Dependency in DAG models with Hidden Variables

In most of the transfer learning approaches to reinforcement learning (RL) the distribution over the tasks is assumed to be stationary. Therefore, the target and source tasks are i.i.d. samples of the same distribution. Unfortunately, this assumption rarely holds in real-world conditions, e.g., due to seasonality or periodicity, evolution in the environment or faults in the sensors/actuators. In the context of this work, we consider the problem of transferring value functions through a variational method when the distribution that generates the tasks is time-variant, proposing a solution that leverages this temporal structure inherent in the task generating process. Furthermore, by means of a finite-sample analysis, the previously mentioned solution is theoretically compared to its time-invariant version. Finally, the experimental evaluation of the proposed technique is carried out on the lake Como water system representing a real-world scenario and on three different RL environments with three distinct temporal dynamics.

Time-Variant Variational Transfer for Value Functions

We analyze the finite corrections to the neural tangent kernel (NTK) of residual and densely connected networks, as a function of both depth and width. Surprisingly, our analysis reveals that given a fixed depth, residual networks provide the best tradeoff between the parameter complexity and the coefficient of variation (normalized variance), followed by densely connected networks and vanilla MLPs.

On Random Kernels of Residual Architectures

We introduce neural Markov logic networks (NMLNs), a statistical relational learning system that borrows ideas from Markov logic. Like Markov logic networks (MLNs), NMLNs are an exponential-family model for modelling distributions over possible worlds, but unlike MLNs, they do not rely on explicitly specified first-order logic rules. Instead, NMLNs learn an implicit representation of such rules as a neural network that acts as a potential function on fragments of the relational structure. Similarly to many neural symbolic methods, NMLNs can exploit embeddings of constants but, unlike them, NMLNs work well also in their absence. This is extremely important for predicting in settings other than the transductive one. We showcase the potential of NMLNs on generation of molecular (graph) data, knowledge-base completion and triple classification.

Neural Markov Logic Networks

Neural Processes (NPs) are a family of conditional generative models that are able to model a distribution over functions, in a way that allows them to perform predictions at test time conditioned on a number of context points. A recent addition to this family, Convolutional Conditional Neural Processes (ConvCNP), have shown remarkable improvement in performance over prior art, but we find that they sometimes struggle to generalize when applied to time series data. In particular, they are not robust to distribution shifts and fail to extrapolate observed patterns into the future. By incorporating a Gaussian Process into the model, we are able to remedy this and at the same time improve performance within distribution. As an added benefit, the Gaussian Process reintroduces the possibility to sample from the model, a key feature of other members in the NP family.

Better Generalization for Convolutional Conditional Neural Processes on Time Series Data

Few-shot learning ability is heavily desired for machine intelligence. By meta-learning a model initialization from training tasks with fast adaptation ability to new tasks, model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) has achieved remarkable success in a number of few-shot learning applications. However, theoretical understandings on the learning ability of MAML remain absent yet, hindering developing new and more advanced meta learning methods in a principle way. In this work, we solve this problem by theoretically justifying the fast adaptation capability of MAML when applied to new tasks. Specifically, we prove that the learnt meta-initialization can quickly adapt to new tasks with only a few steps of gradient descent. This result, for the first time, explicitly reveals the benefits of the unique designs in MAML. Then we propose a theory-inspired task similarity aware MAML which clusters tasks into multiple groups according to the estimated optimal model parameters and learns group-specific initializations. The proposed method improves upon MAML by speeding up the adaptation and giving stronger few-shot learning ability. Experimental results on the few-shot classification tasks testify its advantages. TensorFlow code will be released to reproduce our results.

Task Similarity Aware Meta Learning: Theory-inspired Improvement on MAML

Source code can be parsed into the abstract syntax tree (AST) based on defined syntax rules. However, in pre-training, little work has considered the incorporation of tree structure into the learning process. In this paper, we present TreeBERT, a tree-based pre-trained model for improving programming language-oriented generation tasks. To utilize tree structure, TreeBERT represents the AST corresponding to the code as a set of composition paths and introduces node position embedding. The model is trained by tree masked language modeling (TMLM) and node order prediction (NOP) with a hybrid objective. TMLM uses a novel masking strategy designed according to the tree's characteristics to help the model understand the AST and infer the missing semantics of the AST. With NOP, TreeBERT further extracts the syntactical structure by learning the order constraints of nodes in AST. We pre-trained TreeBERT on datasets covering multiple programming languages. On code summarization and code documentation tasks, TreeBERT outperforms other pre-trained models and state-of-the-art models designed for these tasks. Furthermore, TreeBERT performs well when transferred to the pre-trained unseen programming language.

A Tree-Based Pre-Trained Model for Programming Language

Causal graphs (CGs) are compact representations of the knowledge of the data generating processes behind the data distributions. When a CG is available, e.g., from the domain knowledge, we can infer the conditional independence (CI) relations that should hold in the data distribution. However, it is not straightforward how to incorporate this knowledge into predictive modeling. In this work, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method that allows us to exploit the prior knowledge of the CI encoded in a CG for supervised machine learning. We theoretically justify the proposed method by providing an excess risk bound indicating that the proposed method suppresses overfitting by reducing the apparent complexity of the predictor hypothesis class. Using real-world data with CGs provided by domain experts, we experimentally show that the proposed method is effective in improving the prediction accuracy especially in the small-data regime.

Incorporating Causal Graphical Prior Knowledge into Predictive Modeling via Simple Data Augmentation

Panel data involving longitudinal measurements of the same set of participants or entities taken over multiple time points is common in studies to understand early childhood development and disease modeling. Deep hybrid models that marry the predictive power of neural networks with physical

Graph Reparametrizations for Enabling 1000+ Monte Carlo Iterations In Bayesian Deep Neural Networks

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