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Causal analyses of longitudinal data generally assume that the qualitative causal structure relating variables remains invariant over time. In structured systems that transition between qualitatively different states in discrete time steps, such an approach is deficient on two fronts. First, time-varying variables may have state-specific causal relationships that need to be captured. Second, an intervention can result in state transitions downstream of the intervention different from those actually observed in the data. In other words, interventions may counterfactually alter the subsequent temporal evolution of the system. We introduce a generalization of

UAI 2021

Path Dependent Structural Equation Models

identification

dynamic bayesian networks

causal inference

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

The 37th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2021) is held fully online. We have an exciting program consisting of keynote talks by [Susan Murphy](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=A), [Eric Horvitz](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=B), [Lenka Zdeborová](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=C), [Judea Pearl](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=D) and [Ankur Moitra](https://www.auai.org/uai2021/program?block=E), a town hall meeting, peer-reviewed papers, and three workshops. The main conference is single-track and each paper is show-cased with a live component (either a live discussion and Q&A, or a live lightning talk). All papers are also featured in video presentations and in poster sessions in gather.town. The three parallel workshops on Friday allow for smaller meetings on current topics.

The walkthrough video below shows how you can navigate this site and use the different possibilities for interaction: UAIsland2021 on gather.town for posters and social interactions, the mementor platform for virtual mentoring sessions, and the chat and Q&A systems for discussions about talks and posters.

Have a great UAI 2021! 
<br>
<br>Cassio de Campos and Marloes Maathuis
<br>UAI 2021 Program Chairs
<br>uai2021programchairs@gmail.com

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https://auai.org/uai2021/registration

The Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) is one of the premier international conferences on research related to knowledge representation, learning, and reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. It is supported by the [Association for Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (AUAI).](https://www.auai.org/)

lightning talk

For a continuous random variable $Z$, testing conditional independence $X\indep Y|Z$ is known to be a particularly hard problem. It constitutes a key ingredient of many constraint-based causal discovery algorithms. These algorithms are often applied to datasets containing binary variables, which indicate the ‘context’ of the observations, e.g. a control or treatment group within an experiment. In these settings, conditional independence testing with $X$ or $Y$ binary (and the other continuous) is paramount to the performance of the causal discovery algorithm. To our knowledge no nonparametric ‘mixed’ conditional independence test currently exists, and in practice tests that assume all variables to be continuous are used instead. In this paper we aim to fill this gap, as we combine elements of Holmes et al. (2015) and Teymur and Filippi (2020) to propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric conditional two-sample test. Applied to the Local Causal Discovery algorithm, we investigate its performance on both synthetic and real-world data, and compare with state-of-the-art conditional independence tests.


A Bayesian Nonparametric Conditional Two-sample Test with an Application to Local Causal Discovery

The graphical structure of Probabilistic Graphica+C7:C63l Models (PGMs) encodes the conditional independence (CI) relations that hold in the modeled distribution. Graph algorithms, such as d-separation, use this structure to infer additional conditional independencies, and to query whether a specific CI holds in the distribution. The premise of all current systems-of-inference for deriving CIs in PGMs, is that the set of CIs used for the construction of the PGM hold exactly.

Approximate Implication with d-Separation

Finding a consistent DAG extension for a given partially directed acyclic graph (PDAG) is a basic building block used in graphical causal analysis. In 1992, Dor and Tarsi proposed an algorithm with time complexity $O(n^4)$, which has been widely used in causal theory and practice so far. It is a long-standing open question whether an extension can be computed faster and, in particular, it was conjectured that a linear-time method may exist. The main contributions of our work are two-fold: Firstly, we propose a new algorithm for the extension problem for PDAGs which runs in time $O(n^3)$; secondly, we show that, under a computational intractability assumption, our cubic algorithm is optimal. Thus, our impossibility result disproves the conjecture that a linear-time method exists. Based on these results, we present a full complexity landscape for finding extensions in various causal graphical models. We extend the techniques to recognition problems and apply them to design an effective algorithm for closing a PDAG under the orientation rules of Meek.

Extendability of Causal Graphical Models: Algorithms and Computational Complexity

Max-linear Bayesian networks have emerged as highly applicable models for causal inference via extreme value data. However, conditional independence (CI) for max-linear Bayesian networks behaves differently than for classical Gaussian Bayesian networks. We establish the parallel between the two theories via tropicalization, and establish the surprising result that the Markov equivalence classes for max-linear Bayesian networks coincide with the ones obtained by regular CI. Our paper opens up many problems at the intersection of extreme value statistics, causal inference and tropical geometry.

Markov Equivalence of Max-Linear Bayesian Networks

When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make modeling assumptions relating the error-prone measurements to the unobserved true values. Work on measurement error has largely focused on models that fully identify the parameter of interest. As a result, many practically useful models that result in bounds on the target parameter -- known as partial identification -- have been neglected. In this work, we present a method for partial identification in a class of measurement error models involving discrete variables. We focus on models that impose linear constraints on the target parameter, allowing us to compute partial identification bounds using off-the-shelf LP solvers. We show how several common measurement error assumptions can be composed with an extended class of instrumental variable-type models to create such linear constraint sets. We further show how this approach can be used to bound causal parameters, such as the average treatment effect, when treatment or outcome variables are measured with error. Using data from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, we apply this method to estimate bounds on the effect Medicaid enrollment has on depression when depression is measured with error.

Partial Identifiability in Discrete Data With Measurement Error

Continuously-indexed flows (CIFs) have recently achieved improvements over baseline normalizing flows on a variety of density estimation tasks. CIFs do not possess a closed-form marginal density, and so, unlike standard flows, cannot be plugged in directly to a variational inference (VI) scheme in order to produce a more expressive family of approximate posteriors. However, we show here how CIFs can be used as part of an auxiliary VI scheme to formulate and train expressive posterior approximations in a natural way. We exploit the conditional independence structure of multi-layer CIFs to build the required auxiliary inference models, which we show empirically yield low-variance estimators of the model evidence. We then demonstrate the advantages of CIFs over baseline flows in VI problems when the posterior distribution of interest possesses a complicated topology, obtaining improved results in both the Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood settings.

Variational Inference with Continuously-Indexed Normalizing Flows

A core challenge in policy optimization in competitive Markov decision processes is the design of efficient optimization methods with desirable convergence and stability properties. To tackle this, we propose competitive policy optimization (CoPO), a novel policy gradient approach that exploits the game-theoretic nature of competitive games to derive policy updates. Motivated by the competitive gradient optimization method, we derive a bilinear approximation of the game objective. In contrast, off-the-shelf policy gradient methods utilize only linear approximations, and hence do not capture interactions among the players. We instantiate CoPO in two ways: (i) competitive policy gradient, and (ii) trust-region competitive policy optimization. We theoretically study these methods, and empirically investigate their behavior on a set of comprehensive, yet challenging, competitive games. We observe that they provide stable optimization, convergence to sophisticated strategies, and higher scores when played against baseline policy gradient methods.

Competitive Policy Optimization

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), despite their tremendous success in recent years, could still cast doubts on their predictions due to the intrinsic uncertainty associated with their learning process. Ensemble techniques and post-hoc calibrations are two types of approaches that have individually shown promise in improving the uncertainty calibration of DNNs. However, the synergistic effect of the two types of methods has not been well explored. In this paper, we propose a truth discovery framework to integrate ensemble-based and post-hoc calibration methods. Using the geometric variance of the ensemble candidates as a good indicator for sample uncertainty, we design an accuracy-preserving truth estimator with provably no accuracy drop. Furthermore, we show that post-hoc calibration can also be enhanced by truth discovery-regularized optimization. On large-scale datasets including CIFAR and ImageNet, our method shows consistent improvement against state-of-the-art calibration approaches on both histogram-based and kernel density-based evaluation metrics. Our codes are available at https://github.com/horsepurve/truly-uncertain.

Improving Uncertainty Calibration of Deep Neural Networks via Truth Discovery and Geometric Optimization

Adversarial training has shown its ability in producing models that are robust to perturbations on the input data, but usually at the expense of a decrease in the standard accuracy. To mitigate this issue, it is commonly believed that more training data will eventually help such adversarially robust models generalize better on the benign/unperturbed test data. In this paper, however, we challenge this conventional belief and show that more training data can hurt the generalization of adversarially robust models in classification problems. We first investigate the Gaussian mixture classification with a linear loss and identify three regimes based on the strength of the adversary. In the weak adversary regime, more data improves the generalization of adversarially robust models. In the medium adversary regime, with more training data, the generalization loss exhibits a double descent curve, which implies the existence of an intermediate stage where more training data hurts the generalization. In the strong adversary regime, more data almost immediately causes the generalization error to increase. Then we analyze a two-dimensional classification problem with a 0-1 loss. We prove that more data always hurts generalization of adversarially trained models with large perturbations. Empirical studies confirm our theoretical results.

The Curious Case of Adversarially Robust Models: More Data Can Help, Double Descend, or Hurt Generalization

Many decision-making problems under uncertainty can be formulated as convex stochastic optimization, which minimizes a convex objective in expectation across exponentially many probabilistic scenarios. Despite its convexity, evaluating the objective function is #P-hard. Previous approaches use samples from MCMC and its variants to approximate the objective function but have a slow mixing rate. We present XOR-SGD, a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) approach guaranteed to converge to solutions that are at most a constant away from the true optimum in linear number of iterations. XOR-SGD harnesses XOR-sampling, which reduces the sample approximation of the expectation into queries of NP oracles via hashing and projection. We evaluate XOR-SGD on two real-world applications. The first stochastic inventory management problem searches for a robust inventory management plan in preparation for the virus pandemics, natural disasters, etc. The second network design problem decides an optimal land conservation plan which promotes the free movement of wild-life animals. We show that our approach finds better solutions with drastically fewer samples needed compared to a couple of state-of-the-art solvers.

Path Dependent Structural Equation Models

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A Bayesian Nonparametric Conditional Two-sample Test with an Application to Local Causal Discovery

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