Singapore

Forecasting time series with extreme events is critical yet challenging due to their high variance, irregular dynamics, and sparse but high-impact nature. While existing methods excel in modeling dominant regular patterns, their performance degrades significantly during extreme events, constituting the primary source of forecasting errors in real-world applications. Although some approaches incorporate auxiliary signals to improve performance, they still fail to capture extreme events&#39; complex temporal dynamics. To address these limitations, we propose M$^2$FMoE, an extreme-adaptive forecasting model that learns both regular and extreme patterns through multi-resolution and multi-view frequency modeling. It comprises three modules: (1) a multi-view frequency mixture-of-experts module assigns experts to distinct spectral bands in Fourier and Wavelet domains, with cross-view shared band splitter aligning frequency partitions and enabling inter-expert collaboration to capture both dominant and rare fluctuations; (2) a multi-resolution adaptive fusion module that hierarchically aggregates frequency features from coarse to fine resolutions, enhancing sensitivity to both short-term variations and sudden changes; (3) a temporal gating integration module that dynamically balances long-term trends and short-term frequency-aware features, improving adaptability to both regular and extreme temporal patterns. Experiments on real-world hydrological datasets with extreme patterns demonstrate that M$^2$FMoE outperforms state-of-the-art baselines without requiring extreme-event labels.

AAAI 2026

M2FMoE: Multi-Resolution Multi-View Frequency Mixture-of-Experts for Extreme-Adaptive Time Series Forecasting

app: natural sciences

ml: time-series/data streams

ml: classification and regression

ml: applications

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

AAAI 2022

Forecasting time series with extreme events is critical yet challenging due to their high variance, irregular dynamics, and sparse but high-impact nature. While existing methods excel in modeling dominant regular patterns, their performance degrades significantly during extreme events, constituting the primary source of forecasting errors in real-world applications. Although some approaches incorporate auxiliary signals to improve performance, they still fail to capture extreme events' complex temporal dynamics. To address these limitations, we propose M$^2$FMoE, an extreme-adaptive forecasting model that learns both regular and extreme patterns through multi-resolution and multi-view frequency modeling. It comprises three modules: (1) a multi-view frequency mixture-of-experts module assigns experts to distinct spectral bands in Fourier and Wavelet domains, with cross-view shared band splitter aligning frequency partitions and enabling inter-expert collaboration to capture both dominant and rare fluctuations; (2) a multi-resolution adaptive fusion module that hierarchically aggregates frequency features from coarse to fine resolutions, enhancing sensitivity to both short-term variations and sudden changes; (3) a temporal gating integration module that dynamically balances long-term trends and short-term frequency-aware features, improving adaptability to both regular and extreme temporal patterns. Experiments on real-world hydrological datasets with extreme patterns demonstrate that M$^2$FMoE outperforms state-of-the-art baselines without requiring extreme-event labels.

technical paper

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

Given society's increasing reliance on data, its collection
and processing into useful information is a technical
problem of growing focus, and perhaps paradoxically, a
critical bottleneck in many data science and machine
learning applications.
Yet, even for the most basic statistical problems such as
mean estimation, there is a theory-practice divide.
Conventional methods like the sample mean, while supported
by theoretical results under strong assumptions, are often
brittle in the presence of extreme data.
Practitioners thus often use ad-hoc and unprincipled
"outlier removal" heuristics, but which can lead to wrong
conclusions (e.g. Milikan's underestimation of the electron
charge (Holton 1978)).

In this talk, I will describe my work that essentially
resolves the fundamental 1-d mean estimation problem.
I will show the construction of a statistically-optimal and
computationally-efficient 1-dimensional mean estimator,
whose estimation error is optimal even in the leading
multiplicative constant, under bare minimum distributional
assumptions (FOCS 2021).
Furthermore, we will discuss its various robustness
properties (ICML 2025 Oral), in particular highlighting
robustness to adversarial sample corruption.
Depending on the allocated time, I will also show a rather
different but optimal mean estimator for the "very
high-dimensional" regime (ITCS 2022).

All-Purpose Mean Estimation over R

As part of nationwide efforts aligned with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3 on Universal Health Coverage, Ethiopia's Ministry of Health is strengthening health posts to expand access to essential healthcare services. However, only a fraction of this health system strengthening effort can be implemented each year due to limited budgets, thus the need for an optimization framework to guide prioritization across the regions of Ethiopia. In this paper, we develop a tool, HARP, based on a principled decision-support optimization framework for sequential facility planning that aims to maximize population coverage under budget uncertainty while satisfying region-specific proportionality targets at *every* time step. We then propose two algorithms: (i) a learning-augmented approach that improves upon expert recommendations at any single-step; and (ii) a greedy algorithm for multi-step planning, both with strong worst-case approximation estimation. In collaboration with the Ethiopian public health institute and Ministry of Health, we demonstrated the empirical efficacy of our method on three regions across various planning scenarios.

Optimizing Health Coverage in Ethiopia: A Learning-augmented Approach and Persistent Proportionality Under an Online Budget

Neural operators have emerged as a promising paradigm for learning solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs) directly from data. Existing methods, such as those based on Fourier or graph techniques, make strong assumptions about the structure of the kernel integral operator, assumptions which may limit expressivity. We present SVD-NO, a neural operator that explicitly parameterizes the kernel by its singular-value decomposition (SVD) and then carries out the integral directly in the low-rank basis. Two lightweight networks learn the left and right singular functions, a diagonal parameter matrix learns the singular values, and a Gram-matrix regularizer enforces orthonormality. As SVD-NO approximates the full kernel, it obtains a high degree of expressivity. Furthermore, due to its low-rank structure the computational complexity of applying the operator remains reasonable, leading to a practical system. In extensive evaluations on five diverse benchmark equations, SVD-NO achieves a new state of the art. In particular, SVD-NO provides greater performance gains on PDEs whose solutions are highly spatially variable. To facilitate reproducibility, an anonymized implementation is included in the supplementary material.

SVD-NO: Learning PDE Solution Operators with SVD Integral Kernels

Multi-robot systems in complex physical collaborations face a "shared brain dilemma": transmitting high-dimensional multimedia data (e.g., video streams at ~30MB/s) creates severe bandwidth bottlenecks and decision-making latency. To address this, we propose PIPHEN, an innovative distributed physical cognition-control framework. Its core idea is to replace "raw data communication" with "semantic communication" by performing "semantic distillation" at the robot edge, reconstructing high-dimensional perceptual data into compact, structured physical representations. This idea is primarily realized through two key components: (1) a novel Physical Interaction Prediction Network (PIPN), derived from large model knowledge distillation, to generate this representation; and (2) a Hamiltonian Energy Network (HEN) controller, based on energy conservation, to precisely translate this representation into coordinated actions. Experiments show that, compared to baseline methods, PIPHEN can compress the information representation to less than 5\% of the original data volume and reduce collaborative decision-making latency from 315ms to 76ms, while significantly improving task success rates. This work provides a fundamentally efficient paradigm for resolving the "shared brain dilemma" in resource-constrained multi-robot systems.

PIPHEN: Physical Interaction Prediction with Hamiltonian Energy Networks

Experience replay is a foundational technique in reinforcement learning that enhances learning stability by storing past experiences in a replay buffer and reusing them during training. Despite its practical success, its theoretical properties remain underexplored. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework that models experience replay using resampled $U$- and $V$-statistics, providing rigorous variance reduction guarantees. We apply this framework to policy evaluation tasks using the Least-Squares Temporal Difference (LSTD) algorithm and a Partial Differential Equation (PDE)-based model-free algorithm, demonstrating significant improvements in stability and efficiency, particularly in data-scarce scenarios. Beyond policy evaluation, we extend the framework to kernel ridge regression, showing that the experience replay-based method reduces the computational cost from the traditional $O(n^3)$ in time to as low as $O(n^2)$ in time while simultaneously reducing variance. Extensive numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings, demonstrating the broad applicability and effectiveness of experience replay in diverse machine learning tasks.

Variance Reduction via Resampling and Experience Replay

Process or step-wise supervision has played a crucial role in advancing complex multi-step reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, efficient, high-quality automated process annotation remains a significant challenge. To address this, we introduce **S**ingle-**P**ass **A**nnotation with **R**eference-Guided **E**valuation (*SPARE*), a novel structured framework that enables efficient per-step annotation by jointly aligning solution steps to reference solutions and determine its accuracy with explicit reasoning in single generation. We demonstrate *SPARE*'s effectiveness across four diverse datasets spanning mathematical reasoning (GSM8K, MATH), multi-hop question answering (MuSiQue-Ans), and spatial reasoning (SpaRP), showing consistent improvements in two applications: (1) training Process Reward Models (PRMs) for ranking and aggregating multiple generations, and (2) fine-tuning models via offline reinforcement learning for greedy decoding. On PROCESSBENCH, *SPARE* demonstrates data-efficient out-of-distribution generalization, using only ~16% of training samples compared to human-labeled and other synthetically trained baselines. Additionally, it achieves competitive performance with MCTS-based methods while offering 2.3x speedup in terms of total token count. Manual analysis reveals complementary precision-recall characteristics with MCTS approaches, suggesting potential for ensemble methods. These results establish *SPARE* as a practical and scalable solution for automatic process supervision in LLM reasoning.

SPARE: Single-Pass Annotation with Reference-Guided Evaluation for Automatic Process Supervision and Reward Modelling

Computing stable partitions in hedonic games is a challenging task because there exist games in which stable outcomes do not exist. Even more, these No-instances can often be leveraged to prove computational hardness results. We make this impression rigorous in a dynamic model of cardinal hedonic games by providing meta theorems. These imply hardness of deciding about the possible or necessary convergence of deviation dynamics based on the mere existence of No-instances. Our results hold for additively separable, fractional, and modified fractional hedonic games (ASHGs, FHGs, and MFHGs). Moreover, they encompass essentially all reasonable stability notions based on single-agent deviations. Second, we propose dynamics as a method to find individually rational and contractually individual stable (CIS) partitions in ASHGs. In particular, we find that CIS dynamics from the singleton partition possibly converge after a linear number of deviations but may require an exponential number of deviations in the worst case.

Deviation Dynamics in Cardinal Hedonic Games

Class integration test order (CITO) generation is essential for reducing the overhead of test stub construction—the primary cost in integration testing—and for ensuring system reliability in complex software systems. While reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated potential in automating CITO generation, existing methods suffer from unstable policy learning and limited robustness against structural perturbations and defect injection. These challenges stem from insufficient reward shaping and the absence of reliable oracles for validation. To address these limitations, we propose LM-CITO, a stability-aware RL framework that integrates Lyapunov-guided reward shaping with semantic validation via metamorphic testing (MT). Specifically, we design a Lyapunov energy function over class dependency graphs to promote monotonic structural convergence during training, and define metamorphic relations (MRs) to verify behavioral consistency under controlled perturbations. Extensive experiments on six real-world systems demonstrate that LM-CITO consistently produces more effective policies, yielding CITOs with significantly reduced stubbing costs compared to baseline models. Furthermore, MT verifies the capability of our MRs to detect diverse defects across 19 injected bug variants, confirming LM-CITO’s robustness under varied fault-induced perturbations. These results highlight the synergy of stability guidance and MR-based validation, offering an effective, principled solution for oracle-free RL in software testing.

Stability-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Robust Class Integration Test Order Generation

Marginal Fisher Analysis (MFA) is a classical dimensionality reduction (DR) method that leverages dual graphs to capture intra-class compactness and inter-class separability. However, MFA's reliance on high-quality labels limits its practical application. For another, existing unsupervised DR methods neglect data's local manifold relationship, resulting in poor discriminativeness. To address these limitations, we propose a novel DR method named \textbf{D}iscriminative \textbf{G}raph \textbf{E}mbedding \textbf{F}ramework (DGEF) via Label-Free Marginal Fisher Analysis. Our approach uses the adjacency matrix and cluster indicator matrix derived from centerless K-Means to construct intrinsic graph and penalty graph, which preserve the local manifold structure of the data. Additionally, we have derived the convertible relationship between centerless K-Means and Manifold learning and unified them within a graph embedding framework. By adopting the intrinsic graph and penalty graph, our DGEF avoids centroid initialization and ensures robustness and discriminativeness. This method achieves dimensionality reduction adaptively without relying on labeled data. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that our approach outperforms conventional methods in clustering performance.

Discriminative Graph Embedding Framework via Label-Free Marginal Fisher Analysis

While knowledge distillation has seen widespread use in pre-training and instruction tuning, its application to aligning language models with human preferences remains underexplored, particularly in the more realistic cross-tokenizer setting. The incompatibility of tokenization schemes between teacher and student models has largely prevented fine-grained, white-box distillation of preference information. To address this gap, we propose Cross-Tokenizer Preference Distillation (CTPD), the first unified framework for transferring human-aligned behavior between models with heterogeneous tokenizers. CTPD introduces three key innovations: (1) Aligned Span Projection, which maps teacher and student tokens to shared character-level spans for precise supervision transfer; (2) a cross-tokenizer adaptation of Token-level Importance Sampling (TIS-DPO) for improved credit assignment; and (3) a Teacher-Anchored Reference, allowing the student to directly leverage the teacher’s preferences in a DPO-style objective. Our theoretical analysis grounds CTPD in importance sampling, and experiments across multiple benchmarks confirm its effectiveness, with significant performance gains over existing methods. These results establish CTPD as a practical and general solution for preference distillation across diverse tokenization schemes, opening the door to more accessible and efficient alignment of language models.

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