Singapore

Estimating counterfactual outcomes from observational data is critical for informed decision-making in domains such as personalized marketing, healthcare, and online platforms. In these contexts, decision processes frequently involve high-dimensional combinatorial interventions, including bundled channel allocation or product set recommendations. For such scenarios, both causal assessment of historical strategies and optimization of novel interventions necessitate models capable of extrapolating to intervention combinations that are underrepresented or entirely absent in observational data. Specifically, in digital marketing, companies often need to evaluate new combinations of channels or target emerging user segments that have not been previously exposed. Moreover, inherent biases in observational datasets, stemming from prior allocation policies and targeting mechanisms, further aggravate coverage sparsity and compromise off-support counterfactual inference. In this work, we propose Dual-Source Counterfactual Fusion (DSCF), a scalable framework that enables accurate counterfactual prediction under high-dimensional combinatorial interventions, with improved robustness to confounding bias. DSCF jointly models observational data and proxy counterfactual samples through a dual-head mixture-of-experts architecture and domain-guided fusion. This design effectively integrates bias reduction and information diversity while enabling adaptive generalization to counterfactual inputs. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of DSCF across diverse scenarios.

AAAI 2026

DSCF: Dual-Source Counterfactual Fusion for High-Dimensional Combinatorial Interventions

counterfactual

action

causal inference

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ACL 2023

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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

Transformers are the basis of modern large language models, but relatively little is known about their precise expressive power on graphs. We study the expressive power of graph transformers (GTs) by Dwivedi and Bresson (2020) and GPS-networks by Rampásek et al. (2022), both under soft-attention and average hard-attention. Our study covers two scenarios: the theoretical setting with real numbers and the more practical case with floats. With reals, we show that in restriction to vertex properties definable in first-order logic (FO), GPS-networks have the same expressive power as graded modal logic (GML) with the global modality. With floats, GPS-networks turn out to be equally expressive as GML with the counting global modality. The latter result is absolute, not restricting to properties definable in a background logic. We also obtain similar characterizations for GTs in terms of propositional logic with the global modality (for reals) and the counting global modality (for floats).

Expressive Power of Graph Transformers via Logic

Humans exhibit time-inconsistent behavior, in which planned actions diverge from executed actions. Understanding time inconsistency and designing appropriate interventions is a key research challenge in computer science and behavioral economics. Previous work focuses on progress-based tasks and derives a closed-form description of agent behavior, from which they obtain optimal intervention strategies. They model time-inconsistency using the $\beta$--$\delta$ discounting (quasi-hyperbolic discounting), but the analysis is limited to the case $\delta = 1$. In this paper, we relax that constraint and show that a closed-form description of agent behavior remains possible for the general case $0 < \delta \le 1$. Based on this result, we derive the conditions under which agents abandon tasks and develop efficient methods for computing optimal interventions. Our analysis reveals that agent behavior and optimal interventions depend critically on the value of $\delta$, suggesting that fixing $\delta = 1$ in many prior studies may unduly simplify real-world decision-making processes.

Delta Matters: An Analytically Tractable Model for beta–delta Discounting Agents

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are widely and successfully applied in the field of speaker recognition. However, recent studies reveal that these models are vulnerable to backdoor attacks, where adversaries inject malicious behaviors into victim models by poisoning the training process. Existing attack methods often rely on environmental noise or complex voice transformations, which are typically difficult to implement and exhibit poor stealthiness. To address these issues, this paper proposes two modulation-based backdoor attacks that leverage frequency modulation (FM) and amplitude modulation (AM) to construct audio triggers. In real-world scenarios, regular variations in frequency and amplitude are often imperceptible to human listeners, making the proposed attacks more covert. Experimental results show that our methods achieve high attack success rates in both digital and physical settings, while also demonstrating strong resistance to various state-of-the-art backdoor defenses. The code for reproducing main experiments is available at https://github.com/HanboCai/FSMA_ASMA.

Modulation-Based Backdoors: Leveraging Amplitude and Frequency Patterns to Attack Speaker Recognition

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models based on flow matching have shown excellent performance in general-purpose robotic manipulation tasks. However, the action ac- curacy of these models on complex downstream tasks is unsatisfactory. One important reason is that these models rely solely on the post-training paradigm of imitation learning, which makes it difficult to have a deeper understanding of the distribution properties of data quality, which is exactly what Reinforcement Learning (RL) excels at. In this paper, we theoretically propose an offline RL post-training objective for VLA flow models and induce an efficient and feasible offline RL fine-tuning algorithm −− Adaptive Reinforced Flow Matching (ARFM). By introducing an adaptively adjusted scaling factor in the VLA flow model loss, we construct a principled bias-variance trade-off objective function to optimally control the impact of RL signal on flow loss. ARFM adaptively balances RL advantage preservation and flow loss gradient variance control, resulting in a more stable and efficient fine-tuning process. Extensive simulation and real-world experimental results show that ARFM exhibits excellent generalization, robustness, few-shot learning, and continuous learning performance.

Balancing Signal and Variance: Adaptive Offline RL Post-Training for VLA Flow Models

The widespread deployment of machine learning systems in critical real-world decision-making applications has highlighted the urgent need for counterfactual explainability methods that operate effectively. Global counterfactual explanations, expressed as actions to offer recourse, aim to provide succinct explanations and insights applicable to large population subgroups. High effectiveness, measured by the fraction of the population that is provided recourse, ensures that the actions benefit as many individuals as possible. Keeping the cost of actions low ensures the proposed recourse actions remain practical and actionable. Limiting the number of actions that provide global counterfactuals is essential to maximize interpretability. The primary challenge, therefore, is to balance these trade-offs—maximizing effectiveness, minimizing cost, while maintaining a small number of actions. We introduce $\texttt{GLANCE}$, a versatile and adaptive algorithm that employs a novel agglomerative approach, jointly considering both the feature space and the space of counterfactual actions, thereby accounting for the distribution of points in a way that aligns with the model's structure. This design enables the careful balancing of the trade-offs among the three key objectives, with the size objective functioning as a tunable parameter to keep the actions few and easy to interpret. Our extensive experimental evaluation demonstrates that $\texttt{GLANCE}$ consistently shows greater robustness and performance compared to existing methods across various datasets and models.

GLANCE: Global Actions in a Nutshell for Counterfactual Explainability

Vision-language fine-tuning has emerged as an efficient paradigm for constructing multimodal foundation models. While textual context often highlights semantic relationships within an image, existing fine-tuning methods typically overlook this information when aligning vision and language, thus leading to suboptimal performance. Toward solving this problem, we propose a method that can improve multimodal alignment and fusion based on both semantics and relationships.Specifically, we first extract multilevel semantic features from different vision encoder to capture more visual cues of the relationships. Then, we learn to project the vision features to group related semantics, among which are more likely to have relationships. Finally, we fuse the visual features with the textual by using inheritable cross-attention, where we globally remove the redundant visual relationships by discarding visual-language feature pairs with low correlation. We evaluate our proposed method on eight foundation models and two downstream tasks, visual question answering and image captioning, and show that it outperforms all existing methods.

Remodeling Semantic Relationships in Vision-Language Fine-Tuning

Graph data often exhibits complex geometric heterogeneity, where structures with varying local curvature, such as tree-like hierarchies and dense communities, coexist within a single network. Existing geometric GNNs, which embed graphs into single fixed-curvature manifolds or discrete product spaces, struggle to capture this diversity. We introduce Adaptive Riemannian Graph Neural Networks (ARGNN), a novel framework that learns a continuous and anisotropic Riemannian metric tensor field over the graph. It allows each node to determine its optimal local geometry, enabling the model to fluidly adapt to the graph's structural landscape. Our core innovation is an efficient parameterization of the node-wise metric tensor, specializing to a learnable diagonal form that captures directional geometric information while maintaining computational tractability. To ensure geometric regularity and stable training, we integrate a Ricci flow-inspired regularization that smooths the learned manifold. Theoretically, we establish the rigorous geometric evolution convergence guarantee for ARGNN and provide a continuous generalization that unifies prior fixed or mixed-curvature GNNs. Empirically, our method demonstrates superior performance on both homophilic and heterophilic benchmark datasets with the ability to capture diverse structures adaptively. Moreover, the learned geometries both offer interpretable insights into the underlying graph structure and empirically corroborate our theoretical analysis.

Adaptive Riemannian Graph Neural Networks

The prediction of compound–protein interactions (CPIs) is crucial for drug discovery. Most existing CPI prediction models rely on protein sequence information as input. However, in early-stage drug development, particularly in phenotype-driven studies or compound-response analyses, proteins are often annotated only with functional labels, and their sequences remain undetermined. Consequently, current methods are inapplicable in such scenarios. Furthermore, our experiments find that even when large-scale perturbations were applied to protein sequences, the predictive performance of the existing models did not show a significant decline. It indicates that the high investment in sequencing may not bring corresponding returns. To address the above issues, we propose an inexpensive, protein-sequencing-free framework BioText-CPI, based on the Biomedical Textual description of protein for CPI prediction. Firstly, during the pre-training stage of the model, we use contrastive learning to align protein texts and sequence modalities. Subsequently, we add biological text descriptions of proteins to the existing public CPI dataset to construct a new CPI dataset. Finally, in the CPI prediction stage, the sequence and biomedical text descriptions of proteins can be used as the input for CPI prediction either separately or simultaneously to meet the application requirements of different scenarios. The experiments demonstrate that BioText-CPI achieves comparable effects to the traditional methods when only the biomedical description of protein is input. Moreover, when the two modalities of protein information are input simultaneously, BioText-CPI achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple scenarios. The source code and data are accessible through the supplementary material.

Sequence-Free for Compound Protein Interaction Prediction

While Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) exhibit remarkable capabilities in complex tasks, they often suffer from excessive redundancy in their chain-of-thought reasoning. This significantly reduces inference efficiency and increases computational costs. We identify that LRM redundancy is not uniformly homogeneous but can be taxonomized according to whether it is destructive to the final answer: destructive redundancy (e.g., logical drift, hallucination amplification) versus non-destructive redundancy (e.g., repetition, over-elaboration). Moreover, LRM's redundant and concise responses exhibit a significant distinction in their hidden layer representation spaces.
Based on these insights, we propose CATS (Category-Aware Token-level Steering), a training-free and lightweight method to reduce the redundancy phenomenon. CATS decomposes redundancy into six semantically interpretable characteristic dimensions. By flexibly weighting and combining the differential vectors corresponding to these dimensions, CATS synthesizes a composite intervention vector, enabling zero-parameter intervention in the hidden layers. Experiments across three LRM models and five mathematical reasoning datasets demonstrate that CATS reduces reasoning length by an average of 25% while maintaining or even slightly improving task accuracy. CATS offers a pluggable, training-free, and lightweight solution, making it particularly beneficial for users in low-resource environments.

CATS: Category-Aware Token-level Steering for Training-Free Redundancy Reduction in Large Reasoning Models

We study the common generalization of Markov decision processes (MDPs) with sets of transition probabilities, known as robust MDPs (RMDPs). A standard goal in RMDPs is to compute a policy that maximizes the expected return under an adversarial choice of the transition probabilities. If the uncertainty in the probabilities is independent between the states, known as s-rectangularity, such optimal robust policies can be computed efficiently using robust value iteration. However, there might still be multiple optimal robust policies, which, while equivalent with respect to the worst-case, reflect different expected returns under non-adversarial choices of the transition probabilities. Hence, we propose a refined policy selection criterion for RMDPs, drawing inspiration from the notions of dominance and best-effort in game theory. Instead of seeking a policy that only maximizes the worst-case expected return, we additionally require the policy to achieve a maximal expected return under different (i.e., not fully adversarial) transition probabilities. We call such a policy an optimal robust best-effort (ORBE) policy. We prove that ORBE policies always exist, characterize their structure, and present an algorithm to compute them with a small overhead over standard robust value iteration. ORBE policies offer a principled tie-breaker among optimal robust policies. Numerical experiments show the feasibility of our approach.

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