Singapore

Probabilistic forecasting is not only a way to add more information to a prediction of the future, but it also builds on weaknesses in point prediction. Sudden changes in a time series can still be captured by a cumulative distribution function (CDF), while a point prediction is likely to miss it entirely. The modeling of CDFs within forecasts has historically been limited to parametric approaches, but due to recent advances, this no longer has to be the case. We aim to advance the fields of probabilistic forecasting and monotonic networks by connecting them and propose an approach that permits the forecasting of implicit, complete, and nonparametric CDFs. For this purpose, we propose an adaptation to deep lattice networks (DLN) for monotonically constrained simultaneous/implicit quantile regression in time series forecasting. By leveraging long short term memory units (LSTM) as the embedding layer, and spreading quantile inputs to all sub-lattices of a DLN with an extended output size, we can produce a multi-horizon forecast of an implicit CDF due to the monotonic constraintability of DLNs. We compare and evaluate our approach&#39;s performance to relevant state of the art within the context of a highly relevant application of time series forecasting: Day-ahead, hourly forecasts of solar irradiance observations. Our experiments show that the adaptation of a DLN performs just as well or even better than an unconstrained approach. Further comparison of the adapted DLN against a scalable monotonic neural network shows that our approach performs better. With this adaptation of DLNs, we intend to create more interest and crossover investigations in techniques of monotonic neural networks and probabilistic forecasting.

AAAI 2026

Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting of Non-Parametric CDFs with Deep Lattice Networks

app: natural sciences cso: applications ml: applications ml: time-series/data streams ru: applications

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Eighth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-24), which will be held in Vancouver, British Columbia at the Vancouver Convention Centre – West Building from 20-27 February, 2024.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-24 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

We expect for AAAI-24 to be an in-person conference – one author of all accepted papers will be expected to present work in person unless there are exceptional circumstances that prevent this.

In order to access the AAAI-24 event page you need to register [here](https://aaai.org/aaai-conference/registration/)

AAAI 2024

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. 

Probabilistic forecasting is not only a way to add more information to a prediction of the future, but it also builds on weaknesses in point prediction. Sudden changes in a time series can still be captured by a cumulative distribution function (CDF), while a point prediction is likely to miss it entirely. The modeling of CDFs within forecasts has historically been limited to parametric approaches, but due to recent advances, this no longer has to be the case. We aim to advance the fields of probabilistic forecasting and monotonic networks by connecting them and propose an approach that permits the forecasting of implicit, complete, and nonparametric CDFs. For this purpose, we propose an adaptation to deep lattice networks (DLN) for monotonically constrained simultaneous/implicit quantile regression in time series forecasting. By leveraging long short term memory units (LSTM) as the embedding layer, and spreading quantile inputs to all sub-lattices of a DLN with an extended output size, we can produce a multi-horizon forecast of an implicit CDF due to the monotonic constraintability of DLNs. We compare and evaluate our approach's performance to relevant state of the art within the context of a highly relevant application of time series forecasting: Day-ahead, hourly forecasts of solar irradiance observations. Our experiments show that the adaptation of a DLN performs just as well or even better than an unconstrained approach. Further comparison of the adapted DLN against a scalable monotonic neural network shows that our approach performs better. With this adaptation of DLNs, we intend to create more interest and crossover investigations in techniques of monotonic neural networks and probabilistic forecasting.

poster

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-26 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

Accurately simulating existing 3D objects and a wide variety of materials often demands expert knowledge and time-consuming physical parameter tuning to achieve the desired dynamic behavior. We introduce MotionPhysics, an end‑to‑end differentiable framework that infers plausible physical parameters from a user-proved natural language prompt for a chosen 3D scene of interest, removing the need for guidance from ground‑truth trajectories or annotated videos. Our approach first utilizes a multimodal large language model to estimate material parameter values, which are constrained to be within plausible ranges. We further propose a learnable motion distillation loss, which extracts robust motion priors from pretrained video diffusion models while minimizing appearance and geometry inductive biases to guide the simulation. We evaluate MotionPhysics across more than thirty scenarios, including real-world, human-designed, and AI-generated 3D objects, spanning a wide range of materials such as elastic solids, metals, foams, sand, and both Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids. We demonstrate that it produces visually realistic dynamic simulations guided by natural language, surpassing the state of the art, with physically plausible parameters that are automatically determined. The code is available in the supplemental material and will be made publicly available upon publication.

MotionPhysics: Learnable Motion Distillation for Text-Guided Simulation

The inherent differences between spike cameras and traditional frame-based cameras lead to more complex and diverse noise characteristics, particularly under extremely low-light conditions. Existing noise modeling approaches for spike camera predominantly rely on inter-spike intervals (ISI) for noise quantification, which often results in inaccurate noise characterization. Moreover, current datasets for spike camera image reconstruction tasks are either synthetic or lack corresponding high-quality reference images, severely limiting rigorous evaluation of noise modeling methods. To address this limitation, we propose a multimodal noise modeling framework for spike camera that integrates insights from traditional frame-based imaging into spike imaging. Specifically, we introduce a time-interval-based quantification method inspired by the exposure-time concept used in traditional frame-based cameras, enabling accurate noise characterization for spike camera. Furthermore, we present the Spike-DSLR Multimodal Dataset (SDMD), the first real-world dataset capturing aligned multimodal data pairs from spike cameras and Digital Single-Lens Reflex (DSLR) cameras, explicitly designed for evaluating spike camera noise models. Experimental results on SDMD demonstrate that our noise modeling approach significantly enhances spike camera image reconstruction quality under low-light conditions, achieving more than 1.6 dB improvement in PSNR compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. This validates both the necessity and effectiveness of adopting a multimodal perspective in spike camera noise modeling. Our code is available at https://github.com/tech-support2/Anonymous_Submission_Code.

Robust Noise Modeling for Spike Camera via Time-Interval Quantification and Spike-DSLR Multimodal Dataset in Low-Light Imaging

Feature dynamics have emerged as a critical topic about open-environment learning due to the instability of feature availability. 
While traditional feature evolution targets single-label tasks, multi-label learning is essential to accommodate the exploding annotation spaces. However, multi-label classification with incremental and decremental features is a crucial yet underexplored problem, which poses the challenge of preserving feature representations and label correlations from historical instances and simultaneously adapting to newly arriving streaming data. To address these issues, we propose a two-stage, one-pass learning approach termed MLID. 
It attempts to compress the informative content of vanished features into the domain of survived ones, facilitate the propagation of label dependencies via low-rank regularization of the classifier, and incorporate augmented features to construct an adaptive classification mechanism. Besides, we design optimization strategies for each stage and provide theoretical guarantees of convergence. Moreover, we establish the generalization error bound of MLID and demonstrate that the compactness of the trace norm and the reuse of models based on effective features can enhance the generalization performance. Finally, we extend it to multi-shot case and extensive experimental results validate the superiority of our MLID.

Multi-Label Classification with Incremental and Decremental Features

Fine-Grained Domain Generalization (FGDG) presents greater challenges than conventional domain generalization due to the subtle inter-class differences and relatively pronounced intra-class variations inherent in fine-grained recognition tasks. Under domain shifts, the model becomes overly sensitive to fine-grained cues, leading to the suppression of critical features and a significant drop in performance. 
Cognitive studies suggest that humans classify objects by leveraging both common and specific attributes, enabling accurate differentiation between fine-grained categories. However, current deep learning models have yet to incorporate this mechanism effectively. Inspired by this mechanism, we propose Concept-Feature Structuralized Generalization (CFSG). This model explicitly disentangles both the concept and feature spaces into three structured components: common, specific, and confounding segments. 
To mitigate the adverse effects of varying degrees of distribution shift, we introduce an adaptive mechanism that dynamically adjusts the proportions of common, specific, and confounding components. 
In the final prediction, explicit weights are assigned to each pair of components. 
Extensive experiments on three single-source benchmark datasets demonstrate that CFSG achieves an average performance improvement of 9.87\% over baseline models and outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods by an average of 3.08\%. Additionally, explainability analysis demonstrates that CFSG effectively integrates multi-granularity structured knowledge and confirms that feature structuralization facilitates the emergence of concept structuralization. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Fine-Grained Generalization via Structuralizing Concept and Feature Space into Commonality, Specificity and Confounding

3D point cloud classification is a fundamental task in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving, robotics, and augmented reality. However, recent studies reveal that point cloud classifiers are vulnerable to structured adversarial perturbations and geometric corruptions, posing risks to their deployment in safety-critical scenarios. Existing certified defenses limit point-wise perturbations but overlook subtle geometric distortions that preserve individual points yet alter the overall structure, potentially leading to misclassification. In this work, we propose FreqCert, a novel certification framework that departs from conventional spatial domain defenses by shifting robustness analysis to the frequency domain, enabling structured certification against global $\ell_2$-bounded perturbations. FreqCert first transforms the input point cloud via the graph Fourier transform (GFT), then applies structured frequency-aware subsampling to generate multiple sub-point clouds. Each sub-cloud is independently classified by a standard model, and the final prediction is obtained through majority voting, where sub-clouds are constructed based on spectral similarity rather than spatial proximity, making the partitioning more stable under $\ell_2$ perturbations and better aligned with the object’s intrinsic structure. We derive a closed-form lower bound on the certified $\ell_2$ robustness radius and prove its tightness under minimal and interpretable assumptions, establishing a theoretical foundation for frequency domain certification. Extensive experiments on the ModelNet40 and ScanObjectNN benchmarks demonstrate that FreqCert consistently achieves higher certified accuracy and empirical accuracy under strong perturbations. Our results suggest that spectral representations provide an effective pathway toward certifiable robustness in 3D point cloud recognition.

Certified L2-Norm Robustness of 3D Point Cloud Recognition in the Frequency Domain

In this paper, we present SegDINO3D, a novel Transformer encoder-decoder framework for 3D instance segmentation. 
As 3D training data is generally not as sufficient as 2D training images, SegDINO3D is designed to fully leverage 2D representation from a pre-trained 2D detection model, including both image-level and object-level features, for improving 3D representation. 
SegDINO3D takes both a point cloud and its associated 2D images as input. 
In the encoder stage, it first enriches each 3D point by retrieving 2D image features from its corresponding image views and then leverages a 3D encoder for 3D context fusion. 
In the decoder stage, it formulates 3D object queries as 3D anchor boxes and performs cross-attention from 3D queries to 2D object queries obtained from 2D images using the 2D detection model. 
These 2D object queries serve as a compact object-level representation of 2D images, effectively avoiding the challenge of keeping thousands of image feature maps in the memory while faithfully preserving the knowledge of the pre-trained 2D model.
The introducing of 3D box queries also enables the model to modulate cross-attention using the predicted boxes for more precise querying.
SegDINO3D achieves the state-of-the-art performance on the ScanNetV2 and ScanNet200 3D instance segmentation benchmarks.
Notably, on the challenging ScanNet200 dataset, SegDINO3D significantly outperforms prior methods by +8.7 and +6.8 mAP on the validation and hidden test sets, respectively, demonstrating its superiority.

SegDINO3D: 3D Instance Segmentation Empowered by Both Image-Level and Object-Level 2D Features

Developing high-performance GPU kernels is critical for AI and scientific computing, but remains challenging due to its reliance on expert crafting and poor portability. While large language models (LLMs) offer promise for automation, both general-purpose and finetuned LLMs suffer from two fundamental and conflicting limitations: correctness and efficiency. The key reason is that existing LLM-based approaches directly generate the entire optimized low-level programs, requiring exploration of an extremely vast space encompassing both optimization policies and implementation codes.

To address the challenge of exploring an intractable space, we propose Macro Thinking Micro Coding (MTMC), a hierarchical framework inspired by the staged optimization strategy of human experts. It decouples optimization strategy from implementation details, ensuring efficiency through high-level strategy and correctness through low-level implementation. Specifically, Macro Thinking employs reinforcement learning to guide lightweight LLMs in efficiently exploring and learning semantic optimization strategies that maximize hardware utilization. Micro Coding leverages general-purpose LLMs to incrementally implement the stepwise optimization proposals from Macro Thinking, avoiding full-kernel generation errors. Together, they effectively navigate the vast optimization space and intricate implementation details, enabling LLMs for high-performance GPU kernel generation.

Comprehensive results on widely adopted benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of MTMC on GPU kernel generation in both accuracy and running time. On KernelBench, MTMC achieves near 100% and 70% accuracy at Levels 1-2 and 3, over 50% than SOTA general-purpose and domain-finetuned LLMs, with up to 7.3× speedup over LLMs, and 2.2× over expert-optimized PyTorch Eager kernels. On the more challenging TritonBench, MTMC attains up to 59.64% accuracy and 34× speedup. All models and datasets will be made publicly available.

QiMeng-Kernel: Macro-Thinking Micro-Coding Paradigm for LLM-Based High-Performance GPU Kernel Generation

Microaneurysms (MAs), the earliest pathognomonic signs of Diabetic Retinopathy (DR), present as sub-60 μm lesions in fundus images with highly variable photometric and morphological characteristics, rendering manual screening not only labor-intensive but inherently error-prone. While diffusion-based anomaly detection has emerged as a promising approach for automated MA screening, its clinical application is hindered by three fundamental limitations. First, these models often fall prey to "identity mapping", where they inadvertently replicate the input image. Second, they struggle to distinguish MAs from other anomalies, leading to high false positives. Third, their suboptimal reconstruction of normal features hampers overall performance. To address these challenges, we propose a Wavelet Diffusion Transformer framework for MA Detection (WDT-MD), which features three key innovations: a noise-encoded image conditioning mechanism to avoid "identity mapping" by perturbing image conditions during training; pseudo-normal pattern synthesis via inpainting to introduce pixel-level supervision, enabling discrimination between MAs and other anomalies; and a wavelet diffusion Transformer architecture that combines the global modeling capability of diffusion Transformers with multi-scale wavelet analysis to enhance reconstruction of normal retinal features. Comprehensive experiments on the IDRiD and e-ophtha MA datasets demonstrate that WDT-MD outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both pixel-level and image-level MA detection. This advancement holds significant promise for improving early DR screening.

WDT-MD: Wavelet Diffusion Transformers for Microaneurysm Detection in Fundus Images

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in image and video generation. However, their inherent multi-step inference process results in substantial computational overhead during inference, posing significant challenges for real-world deployment. Therefore, accelerating diffusion models is of great practical importance. Existing acceleration techniques include model quantization, model pruning, sampler optimization, step reduction, and compilation-level optimization.
Determining how to effectively combine multiple acceleration techniques to achieve optimal performance for a given diffusion model remains a major challenge for engineers. To address this, we propose the Diffusion Optimization Agent, an automated framework designed to generate the optimal acceleration strategy and corresponding code for any given diffusion model. Additionally, we introduce DiffBench, a comprehensive benchmark covering diverse diffusion model pipelines, combinations of optimization techniques, and acceleration tasks.
This paper presents a detailed description of the DiffBench construction process and the design principles of the Diffusion Optimization Agent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our agent significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) in generating effective acceleration strategies for diffusion models.

DiffBench Meets DiffAgent: End-to-End LLM-Driven Diffusion Acceleration Code Generation

Survival prediction of cancers is crucial for clinical practice, as it informs mortality risks and influences treatment plans. However, a $\textit{static}$ model trained on a single dataset fails to adapt to the $\textit{dynamically evolving}$ clinical environment and continuous data streams, limiting its practical utility. While continual learning (CL) offers a solution to learn dynamically from new datasets, existing CL methods primarily focus on unimodal inputs and suffer from severe catastrophic forgetting in survival prediction. In real-world scenarios, multimodal inputs often provide comprehensive and complementary information, such as whole slide images and genomics; and neglecting inter-modal correlations negatively impacts the performance. To address the two challenges of $\textit{catastrophic forgetting}$ and $\textit{complex inter-modal interactions}$ between gigapixel whole slide images and genomics, we propose $\textbf{ConSurv}$, the $\textbf{first}$ multimodal continual learning (MMCL) method for survival analysis. ConSurv incorporates two key components: Multi-staged Mixture of Experts (MS-MoE) and Feature Constrained Replay (FCR). MS-MoE captures both task-shared and task-specific knowledge at different learning stages of the network, including two modality encoders and the modality fusion component, learning inter-modal relationships. FCR further enhances learned knowledge and mitigates forgetting by restricting feature deviation of previous data at different levels, including encoder-level features of two modalities, as well as the fusion-level representations. Additionally, we introduce a new benchmark integrating four datasets, Multimodal Survival Analysis Incremental Learning (MSAIL), for comprehensive evaluation in the CL setting. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ConSurv outperforms competing methods across multiple metrics. Our code is provided in the supplementary material and will be made publicly available upon publication.

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