Singapore

Supply chains are integral to global economic stability, yet disruptions can swiftly propagate through interconnected networks, resulting in substantial economic impacts. Accurate and timely inference of supply chain resilience—the capability to maintain core functions during disruptions—is crucial for proactive risk mitigation and robust network design. However, existing approaches lack effective mechanisms to infer supply chain resilience without explicit system dynamics and struggle to represent the higher-order, multi-entity dependencies inherent in supply chain networks. These limitations motivate the definition of a novel problem and the development of targeted modeling solutions. To address these challenges, we formalize a novel problem: Supply Chain Resilience Inference (SCRI), defined as predicting supply chain resilience using hypergraph topology and observed inventory trajectories without explicit dynamic equations. To solve this problem, we propose the Supply Chain Resilience Inference Hypergraph Network (SC-RIHN), a novel hypergraph-based model leveraging set-based encoding and hypergraph message passing to capture multi-party firm-product interactions. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that SC-RIHN significantly outperforms traditional MLP, representative graph neural network variants, and ResInf baselines across synthetic benchmarks, underscoring its potential for practical, early-warning risk assessment in complex supply chain systems.

AAAI 2026

Resilience Inference for Supply Chains with Hypergraph Neural Network

ml: graph-based machine learning

transportation

social networks

### Welcome to the 10th annual workshop on Naval Applications of Machine Learning!

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The 10th Annual Workshop on Naval Applications of Machine Learning (NAML 2026) was held in San Diego, California, March 2-5, 2026. NAML is a forum for interdisciplinary experts from government, industry, and academia to discuss results of ongoing research on theory and applications of machine learning to address some of the most challenging problems faced by our naval forces. 



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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

Accurate forecasting of the grid carbon intensity factor (CIF) is critical for enabling demand-side management and reducing emissions in modern electricity systems. Leveraging multiple interrelated time series, CIF prediction is typically formulated as a multivariate time series forecasting problem. Despite advances in deep learning-based methods, it remains challenging to capture the fine-grained local-temporal dependencies, dynamic higher-order cross-variable dependencies, and complex multi-frequency patterns for CIF forecasting. To address these issues, we propose a novel model that integrates two parallel modules: 1) one enhances the extraction of local-temporal dependencies under multi-frequency by applying multiple wavelet-based convolutional kernels to overlapping patches of varying lengths; 2) the other captures dynamic cross-variable dependencies under multi-frequency to model how inter-variable relationships evolve across the time-frequency domain. Evaluations on four representative electricity markets from Australia, featuring varying levels of renewable penetration, demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art models. An ablation study further validates the complementary benefits of the two proposed modules. Designed with built-in interpretability, the proposed model also enables better understanding of its predictive behavior, as shown in a case study where it adaptively shifts attention to relevant variables and time intervals during a disruptive event.

Improving Day-Ahead Grid Carbon Intensity Forecasting by Joint Modeling of Local-Temporal and Cross-Variable Dependencies Across Different Frequencies

Equitably allocating limited resources in high-stakes domains—such as education, employment, and healthcare—requires balancing short-term utility with long-term impact, while accounting for delayed outcomes, hidden heterogeneity, and ethical constraints. However, most learning-based allocation frameworks either assume immediate feedback or ignore the complex interplay between individual characteristics and intervention dynamics. We propose a novel bi-level contextual bandit framework for individualized resource allocation under delayed feedback, designed to operate in real-world settings with dynamic populations, capacity constraints, and time-sensitive impact. At the meta level, the model optimizes subgroup-level budget allocations to satisfy fairness and operational constraints. At the base level, it identifies the most responsive individuals within each group using a neural network trained on observational data, while respecting cooldown windows and delayed treatment effects modeled via resource-specific delay kernels. By explicitly modeling temporal dynamics and feedback delays, the algorithm continually refines its policy as new data arrive, enabling more responsive and adaptive decision-making. We validate our approach on two real-world datasets from education and workforce development, showing that it achieves higher cumulative outcomes, better adapts to delay structures, and ensures equitable distribution across subgroups. Our results highlight the potential of delay-aware, data-driven decision-making systems to improve institutional policy and social welfare.

Bi-Level Contextual Bandits for Individualized Resource Allocation Under Delayed Feedback

Writing is a foundational skill for educational, professional, and civic participation, yet access to frequent and timely writing feedback remains deeply unequal. Teachers face significant workload constraints, particularly in large classes, and many learners lack alternative sources of individualized feedback. While large language models (LLMs) offer the opportunity for scalable, adaptive support, little is known about how students engage with such feedback tools in real-world, self-directed settings.
We present a large-scale, year-long analysis of 23,650 voluntary interactions with an open-access AI writing feedback system used by students across diverse educational contexts and age groups, conducted in accordance with strict data protection standards. Using a clustering approach, we identify 2,800 iterative revision chains and apply a validated LLM-based multidimensional scoring framework to assess text quality over time.
Our findings reveal that students who revised their texts after receiving AI feedback demonstrated statistically significant—albeit modest—improvements across both content and language-related dimensions (overall writing quality: ∆ = 0.067, p < .001, r = .17), with the greatest gains observed among initially low-performing writers. Revision frequency was positively associated with improvement, particularly in higher-order writing skills. However, engagement was uneven, with higher usage among students in academically advantaged schools.
These results demonstrate both the technical feasibility and social potential of deploying generative AI for educational support at scale—while highlighting the need for inclusive infrastructure, accessible design, and targeted outreach to truly democratize educational benefits.

Democratizing Writing Support with AI: Insights from One Year of Real-World Interactions with an Open-Access Writing Feedback Tool

Minerals play a critical role in the advanced energy technologies necessary for decarbonization, but characterizing mineral deposits hidden underground remains costly and challenging. Inspired by recent progress in generative modeling, we develop a learning method which infers the locations of minerals by masking and infilling geospatial maps of resource availability. We demonstrate this technique using mineral data for the conterminous United States, and train performant models, with the best achieving Dice coefficients of $0.31 \pm 0.01$ and recalls of $0.22 \pm 0.02$ on test data at $1\times1$ mi$^2$ spatial resolution. One major advantage of our approach is that it can easily incorporate auxiliary data sources for prediction which may be more abundant than mineral data. We highlight the capabilities of our model by adding input layers derived from geophysical sources, along with a nation-wide ground survey of soils originally intended for agronomic purposes. We find that employing such auxiliary features can improve inference performance, while also enabling model evaluation in regions with no recorded minerals.

Masked Mineral Modeling: Continent-Scale Mineral Prospecting via Geospatial Infilling

Terrestrial ecosystems constitute a major component of the global carbon sink and play a critical role in regulating the global carbon cycle. 
Although process-based models such as the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model have been developed to simulate these dynamics and widely adopted in research and applications, they remain computationally intensive and are not well suited for large-scale (e.g., global) projections at high spatial and temporal resolution, or under wide-range of future scenarios. AI-based emulators of process-based physical models have emerged as promising directions to accelerate the computation, with encouraging success in fields such as weather forecasting (e.g., Google's GraphCast and NVIDIA's FourCastNet). There are several challenges to develop emulators for ecosystem processes, including error accumulation over long-sequences, single-step initial conditions, and high-dimensional environment conditions. Existing works often rely on time-series patterns in look-back windows and are not well-suited for the problem with single-step initial conditions. Moreover, they often do not consider uncertainty, making it hard to know when the approximations are highly confident and when the results may need to be updated, e.g., by the process-based models. To address these limitations, we introduce EcoDiffusion, a conditional diffusion framework tailored for ecosystem dynamics emulation to effectively condition on large volumes environment variables and generate non-autoregressive forecasts at multiple scales with uncertainty-awareness. We carried out testing cases at locations distributed over the globe under different scenarios and EcoDiffusion demonstrated significant improvements over existing models.

EcoDiffusion: Uncertainty-Aware Emulation of Ecosystem Processes with Conditional Diffusion for Long Sequences with Single-Step Initialization

Assistive robotics is an important subarea of robotics that focuses on the well-being of people with disabilities. A robotic guide dog is an assistive quadruped robot for assisting visually impaired people in obstacle avoidance and navigation. Enabling language capabilities on robotic guide dogs goes beyond naively adding an existing dialog system onto a mobile robot. The novel challenges include grounding language to the dynamically changing environment and improving spatial awareness for the human handler. To address those challenges, we develop a novel dialog system for robotic guide dogs that uses large language models to verbalize both navigational plans and scenes. The goal is to enable verbal communication for collaborative decision-making within the handler-robot team. In experiments, we performed a human study to evaluate different verbalization strategies, and a simulation study to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy in navigation tasks.

From Woofs to Words: Towards Intelligent Robotic Guide Dogs with Verbal Communication

Traditional language-conditioned manipulation agent adaptation to new manipulation skills leads to catastrophic forgetting of old skills, limiting dynamic scene practical deployment. In this paper, we propose SkillsCrafter, a novel robotic manipulation framework designed to continually learn multiple skills while reducing catastrophic forgetting of old skills. Specifically, we propose a Manipulation Skills Adaptation to retain the old skills knowledge while inheriting the shared knowledge between new and old skills to facilitate learning of new skills. Meanwhile, we perform the singular value decomposition on the diverse skill instructions to obtain common skill semantic subspace projection matrices, thereby recording the essential semantic space of skills. To achieve forget-less and generalization manipulation, we propose a Skills Specialization Aggregation to compute inter-skills similarity in skill semantic subspaces, achieving aggregation of the previously learned skill knowledge for any new or unknown skill. Extensive simulator and real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our SkillsCrafter.

Lifelong Language-Conditioned Robotic Manipulation Learning

In autonomous driving, vision-centric 3D object detection recognizes and localizes 3D objects from RGB images. However, due to high annotation costs and diverse outdoor scenes, training data often fails to cover all possible test scenarios, known as the out-of-distribution (OOD) issue. Training-free image editing offers a promising solution for improving model robustness by training data enhancement without any modifications to pre-trained diffusion models. Nevertheless, inversion-based methods often suffer from limited effectiveness and inherent inaccuracies, while recent rectified-flow-based approaches struggle to preserve objects with accurate 3D geometry. In this paper, we propose DriveFlow, a Rectified Flow Adaptation method for training data enhancement in autonomous driving based on pre-trained Text-to-Image flow models. Based on frequency decomposition, DriveFlow introduces two strategies to adapt noise-free editing paths derived from text-conditioned velocities. 1) High-Frequency Foreground Preservation: DriveFlow incorporates a high-frequency alignment loss for foreground to maintain precise 3D object geometry. 2) Dual-Frequency Background Optimization: DriveFlow also conducts dual-frequency optimization for background, balancing editing flexibility and semantic consistency. Comprehensive experiments validate the effectiveness and efficiency of DriveFlow, demonstrating comprehensive performance improvements on all categories across OOD scenarios. Code will be released.

DriveFlow: Rectified Flow Adaptation for Robust 3D Object Detection in Autonomous Driving

In recent years, Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have significantly advanced multimodal tasks. However, their inference requires intensive processing of numerous visual tokens and incurs substantial computational overhead. Existing methods typically compress visual tokens either at the input stage or in early model layers, ignoring variations across tasks and depths. To address these limitations, we introduce **TOP-RL**, a **Task-Optimized Progressive** token pruning framework based on **Reinforcement Learning**. TOP-RL formulates visual token pruning as a multi-stage Markov Decision Process (MDP). It employs an agent trained with dense and fine-grained reward signals to progressively generate differentiable binary masks. This enables TOP-RL to adaptively select crucial visual tokens tailored to each task, effectively balancing accuracy and computational efficiency. Extensive experiments on leading multimodal datasets and advanced LVLMs validate that TOP-RL effectively learns task-optimized pruning policies, significantly boosting inference efficiency while preserving robust performance. For instance, LLaVA-NeXT equipped with TOP-RL achieves a **1.9$\times$** speedup in inference time and a **9.3$\times$** reduction in FLOPs, with **96%** performance preserved.

TOP-RL: Task-Optimized Progressive Token Pruning with Reinforcement Learning for Vision Language Models

While deep learning (DL) has demonstrated significant success in recommender systems, it suffers from high computational complexity and poor scalability. In this work, we demonstrate, from an information-theoretic perspective, the redundancy of existing DL-based recommender models in two aspects: (1) Feature Redundancy. We show that many features are highly mutually correlated, noisy, or weakly predictive of user-item interaction labels. (2) Structural Redundancy. We further show that a large proportion of parameters in the dense layers contribute minimally to overall performance, indicating significant redundancy within the model architecture. To address these challenges, we propose REACTION (paRameter-Efficient LeArning for recommendaTION), an information-theoretic framework designed to reduce model complexity without sacrificing performance. REACTION consists of two core components: Adaptive Feature Extraction (AFE) leverages mutual information to project high-dimensional sparse features into a compact, informative subspace. This adaptively filters noisy or weak features, reduces embedding parameters, and preserves implicit feature interactions without explicit high-order computation. 
Dynamic Tower Fusion (DTF) bridges the representational gap between dual-tower expressiveness and single-tower efficiency. It facilitates rich cross-tower interactions during training, then merges the towers into a unified, low-latency single tower for inference. 
Extensive experiments on four large-scale benchmarks demonstrate that REACTION not only outperforms existing methods in accuracy but also achieves a drastic reduction in both model parameters and inference costs, thus establishing a new paradigm for efficient and scalable recommendation systems.

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