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Long-term series forecasting aims to predict future data over long horizons based on historical information. However, existing methods struggle to effectively utilize long lookback windows due to overfitting, computational resource constraints, or information extraction challenges, thereby limiting them to using limited lookback windows for predicting long-term future series. To address these issues, this paper introduces the Input Refinement and Prediction Auxiliary (IRPA) framework, a lightweight model consisting of four linear layers designed to extract key information from ultra-long lookback windows to enhance limited lookback windows and assist prediction processes. IRPA comprises an Input Refinement Module (IRM) and a Prediction Auxiliary Module (PAM), each constructed from two linear layer sub-modules. The IRM performs effective decomposition and patching of ultra-long sequences, refining seasonal and trend features to increase the information density in limited lookback windows and mitigate overfitting and parameter inflation. The PAM extracts historical similarities and seasonal patterns from ultra-long lookback windows to significantly improve prediction accuracy. IRPA substantially extends the utilization of lookback windows, offering a lightweight and efficient solution with broad applicability. Experimental results on eight datasets show IRPA reduces the Mean Squared Error (MSE) by an average of 16.1% for various models.

AAAI 2025

Efficiently Enhancing Long-term Series Forecasting via Ultra-long Lookback Windows

poster

We are pleased to announce the Thirty-Ninth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-25), which will be held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania at the Pennsylvania Convention Center from February 25 to March 4, 2025.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-25 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.

### [Invited Speakers](https://aaai.org/conference/aaai/aaai-25/aaai-25-invited-speakers/)

Register [here](https://aaai.org/conference/aaai/aaai-25/registration/)

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-25 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.



Transformer-based Super-Resolution (SR) methods have surpassed CNN-based SR approaches due to their ability to capture long-range dependencies through self-attention layers. However, transformers' high computational complexity has increased the demand for lightweight approaches to enhance their practicality. To address this, we introduce the Attention-Sharing Information Distillation (ASID) network, a lightweight SR network that employs attention-sharing and an information distillation structure tailored for transformer-based SR methods. We adopt the information distillation scheme, originally designed for efficient CNN operations, to reduce the computational load of stacked self-attention layers, thereby alleviating the efficiency bottleneck. Furthermore, to further reduce the computational demands primarily imposed by self-attention operations, we implement attention-sharing across blocks, significantly lowering overall computational needs. By integrating these strategies, ASID delivers competitive performance compared to existing SR methods while requiring only about 300K parameters—substantially fewer than existing CNN-based and transformer-based SR models.

Efficient Attention-Sharing Information Distillation Transformer for Lightweight Single Image Super-Resolution

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) have achieved huge success in effectively capturing and representing 3D objects and scenes. However, to establish a ubiquitous presence in everyday media formats, such as images and videos, we need to fulfill three key objectives: 1. fast encoding and decoding time, 2. compact model sizes, and 3. high-quality renderings. Despite recent advancements, a comprehensive algorithm that adequately addresses all objectives has yet to be fully realized. In this work, we present CodecNeRF, a neural codec for NeRF representations, consisting of an encoder and decoder architecture that can generate a NeRF representation in a single forward pass. Furthermore, inspired by the recent parameter-efficient finetuning approaches, we propose a finetuning method to efficiently adapt the generated NeRF representations to a new test instance, leading to high-quality image renderings and compact code sizes. The proposed CodecNeRF, a newly suggested encoding-decoding-finetuning pipeline for NeRF, achieved unprecedented compression performance of more than 100x and remarkable reduction in encoding time while maintaining (or improving) the image quality on widely used 3D object datasets.

CodecNeRF: Toward Fast Encoding and Decoding, Compact, and High-quality Novel-view Synthesis

The labelling difficulty has been a longstanding problem in deep image matting. To escape from fine labels, this work explores using rough annotations such as trimaps coarsely indicating the foreground/background as supervision. We present that the cooperation between learned semantics from indicated known regions and proper assumed matting rules can help infer alpha values at transition areas. Inspired by the nonlocal principle in traditional image matting, we build a directional distance consistency loss (DDC loss) at each pixel neighborhood to constrain the alpha values conditioned on the input image. DDC loss forces the distance of similar pairs on the alpha matte and on its corresponding image to be consistent. In this way, the alpha values can be propagated from learned known regions to unknown transition areas. With only images and trimaps, a matting model can be trained under the supervision of a known loss and the proposed DDC loss. Experiments on AM-2K and P3M-10K dataset show that our paradigm achieves comparable performance with the fine-label-supervised baseline, while sometimes offers even more satisfying results than human-labelled ground truth. Code will be available.

Training Matting Models without Alpha Labels

Large annotated datasets inevitably contain noisy labels, which poses a major challenge for training deep neural networks as they easily memorize the labels. Noise-robust loss functions have emerged as a notable strategy to counteract this issue, but it remains challenging to create a robust loss function which is not susceptible to underfitting. Through a quantitative approach, this paper explores the limited overlap between the network output at initialization and regions of non-vanishing gradients of bounded loss functions in the initial learning phase. Using these insights, we address underfitting of several noise robust losses with a novel method denoted as logit bias, which adds a real number $\epsilon$ to the logit at the position of the correct class. The logit bias enables these losses to achieve state-of-the-art results, even on datasets like WebVision, consisting of over a million images from 1000 classes. In addition, we demonstrate that our method can be used to determine optimal parameters for several loss functions – without having to train networks. Remarkably, our method determines the hyperparameters based on the number of classes, resulting in loss functions which require zero dataset or noise-dependent parameters.

Enhancing Noise-Robust Losses for Large-Scale Noisy Data Learning

Retrieval-based multi-image question answering (QA) task involves retrieving multiple question-related images and synthesizing these images to generate an answer. Conventional "retrieve-then-answer" pipelines often suffer from cascading errors because the training objective of QA fails to optimize the retrieval stage. To address this issue, we propose a novel method to effectively introduce and reference retrieved information into the QA. Given the image set to be retrieved, we employ a multimodal large language model (visual perspective) and a large language model (textual perspective) to obtain multimodal hypothetical summary in question-form and description-form. By combining visual and textual perspectives, MHyS captures image content more specifically and replaces real images in retrieval, which eliminates the modality gap by transforming into text-to-text retrieval and helps improve retrieval. To more advantageously introduce retrieval with QA, we employ contrastive learning to align queries (questions) with MHyS. Moreover, we propose a coarse-to-fine strategy for calculating both sentence-level and word-level similarity scores, to further enhance retrieval and filter out irrelevant details. Our approach achieves a 3.7% absolute improvement over state-of-the-art methods on RETVQA and a 14.5% improvement over CLIP.  Comprehensive experiments and detailed ablation studies demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Multimodal Hypothetical Summary for Retrieval-based Multi-image Question Answering

Learning in zero-sum games studies a situation where multiple agents competitively learn their strategy. In such multi-agent learning, we often see that the strategies cycle around their optimum, i.e., Nash equilibrium. When a game periodically varies (called a ``periodic'' game), however, the Nash equilibrium moves generically. How learning dynamics behave in such periodic games is of interest but still unclear. Interestingly, we discover that the behavior is highly dependent on the relationship between the two speeds at which the game changes and at which players learn. We observe that when these two speeds synchronize, the learning dynamics diverge, and their time-average does not converge. Otherwise, the learning dynamics draw complicated cycles, but their time-average converges. Under some assumptions introduced for the dynamical systems analysis, we prove that this behavior occurs. Furthermore, our experiments observe this behavior even if removing these assumptions. This study discovers a novel phenomenon, i.e., synchronization, and gains insight widely applicable to learning in periodic games.

Synchronization in Learning in Periodic Zero-Sum Games Triggers Divergence from Nash Equilibrium

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents have shown promise in procedural tasks, but the potential of multimodal instructions augmented by texts and videos to assist users remains underexplored. To address this gap, we propose the Visually Grounded Text-Video Prompting (VG-TVP) method which is a novel LLM-empowered Multimodal Procedural Planning (MPP) framework. It generates cohesive text and video procedural plans given a specified high-level objective. The main challenges are achieving textual and visual informativeness, temporal coherence, and accuracy in procedural plans. VG-TVP leverages the zero-shot reasoning capability of LLMs, the video-to-text generation ability of the video captioning models, and the text-to-video generation ability of diffusion models. VG-TVP improves the interaction in the modalities by proposing a novel Fusion of Captioning (FoC) method and using Text-to-Video Bridge (T2V-B) and Video-to-Text Bridge (V2T-B). They allow LLMs to guide the generation of visually-grounded text plans and textual-grounded video plans. To address the scarcity of datasets suitable for MPP, we have curated a new dataset called Daily-Life Task Procedural Plans (Daily-PP). We conduct comprehensive experiments and benchmarks to evaluate human preferences (regarding textual and visual informativeness, temporal coherence, and plan accuracy). Our VG-TVP method outperforms unimodal baselines on the Daily-PP dataset.

VG-TVP: Multimodal Procedural Planning via Visually Grounded Text-Video Prompting

Predicting future events of relations that arise out of interactions between various entities is a very challenging problem and it has many applications in various fields, such as financial networks and e-commerce. These relations can involve much more complexities than just involving more than two entities. One such scenario is evolving recursive relations between multiple entities and so far this is still an open problem. This work addresses the problem of forecasting higher-order interaction events that can be multi-relational and recursive. We pose the problem in the framework of representation learning of temporal hypergraphs that can capture complex relationships involving multiple entities. The proposed model, \textit{Relational Recursive Hyperedge Temporal Point Process} (RRHyperTPP) uses an encoder that learns a dynamic node representation based on the historical interaction patterns and then a hyperedge link prediction-based decoder to model the occurrence of interaction events. These learned representations are then used for downstream tasks involving forecasting the type and time of interactions. The main challenge in learning from hyperedge events is that the number of possible hyperedges grows exponentially with the number of nodes in the network. This will make the computation of negative log-likelihood of the temporal point process expensive, as the calculation of survival function requires a summation over all possible hyperedges. In our work, we develop a noise contrastive estimation method to learn the parameters of our model, and we have experimentally shown that our models perform better than previous state-of-the-art methods for interaction forecasting.

Deep Representation Learning for Forecasting Recursive and Multi-Relational Events in Temporal Networks

Integrating AI in healthcare can greatly improve patient care and system efficiency. However, the lack of explainability in AI systems (XAI) hinders their clinical adoption, especially in multimodal decision-making that combines various data sources. The majority of existing XAI methods focus on unimodal models, which fail to capture cross-modal interactions that are crucial for understanding the combined impact of multiple data sources. Existing methods for quantifying cross-modal interactions are limited to two modalities, rely on labelled data, and depend on model performance, which is problematic in healthcare, where XAI must handle multiple data sources and provide individualised explanations. This paper introduces InterSHAP, a cross-modal interaction score that addresses the limitations of existing approaches. InterSHAP uses the Shapley interaction index to precisely separate and quantify the contributions of the individual modalities and their interactions without approximations. By integrating an open-source implementation with the SHAP package, we enhance reproducibility and ease of use. We show that InterSHAP accurately measures the presence of cross-modal interactions, can handle multiple modalities, and provides detailed explanations at a local level for individual data points. Furthermore, we apply InterSHAP to real medical multimodal datasets, and demonstrate its practical applicability for individualised explanations.

Measuring Cross-Modal Interactions in Multimodal Models

The alignment between RNA sequences and structures in foundation models (FMs) has yet to be thoroughly investigated. Existing FMs have struggled to establish sequence-structure alignment, hindering the seamless flow of genomic information between RNA sequences and structures. In this study, we introduce OmniGenome, an RNA FM trained to align RNA sequences with respect to secondary structures through structure-contextualized modelling. This alignment enables free and bidirectional mappings between sequences and structures by utilizing a flexible RNA modelling paradigm that supports versatile input and output modalities, i.e., sequence and/or structure as input/output. We implement RNA design and zero-shot secondary structure prediction as case studies to evaluate the Seq2Str and Str2Seq mapping capabilities of OmniGenome. Results on the EternaV2 benchmark show that OmniGenome solved 74% of puzzles, whereas existing FMs solved only up to 3% of the puzzles due to the lack of sequence-structure alignment. We leverage four comprehensive in-silico genome modelling benchmarks to evaluate performance across a diverse set of downstream genome tasks, where the results show that OmniGenome achieves state-of-the-art performance on RNA and DNA benchmarks, even without any training on DNA genomes.

Efficiently Enhancing Long-term Series Forecasting via Ultra-long Lookback Windows

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Efficient Attention-Sharing Information Distillation Transformer for Lightweight Single Image Super-Resolution